Exploring the impacts of the interactions between lifecycles and other dynamics that influence the development of technology-based industries

To address future uncertainty within strategy and innovation, managers extrapolate past patterns and trends into the future. Several disciplines make use of lifecycles, often with a linear sequence of identified phases, to make predictions and address likely uncertainties. Often the aggregation of several cycles is then interpreted as a new cycle - such as product lifecycles into an industry lifecycle. However, frequently different lifecycle terms - technology, product, industry - are used interchangeably and without clear definition. Within the interdisciplinary context of technology management, this juxtaposition of dynamics can create confusion, rather than clarification. This paper explores some typical dynamics associated with technology-based industries, using illustrative examples from the automotive industry. A wide range of dimensions are seen to influence the path of a technology-based industry, and stakeholders need to consider the likely causality and synchronicity of these. Some curves can simply present the aggregation of components; other dynamics incur time lags, rather than being superimposed, but still have a significant impact. To optimise alignment of the important dimensions within any development, and for future strategy decisions, understanding these interactions will be critical. © 2011 IEEE.

Evaluating the impacts of iteration on PD processes by transforming task network models into System Dynamics models

Iteration is unavoidable in the design process and should be incorporated when planning and managing projects in order to minimize surprises and reduce schedule distortions. However, planning and managing iteration is challenging because the relationships between its causes and effects are complex. Most approaches which use mathematical models to analyze the impact of iteration on the design process focus on a relatively small number of its causes and effects. Therefore, insights derived from these analytical models may not be robust under a broader consideration of potential influencing factors. In this article, we synthesize an explanatory framework which describes the network of causes and effects of iteration identified from the literature, and introduce an analytic approach which combines a task network modeling approach with System Dynamics simulation. Our approach models the network of causes and effects of iteration alongside the process architecture which is required to analyze the impact of iteration on design process performance. We show how this allows managers to assess the impact of changes to process architecture and to management levers which influence iterative behavior, accounting for the fact that these changes can occur simultaneously and can accumulate in non-linear ways. We also discuss how the insights resulting from this analysis can be visualized for easier consumption by project participants not familiar with simulation methods. Copyright © 2010 by ASME.

Air quality and public health impacts of UK airports. Part I: Emissions

The potential adverse human health and climate impacts of emissions from UK airports have become a significant political issue, yet the emissions, air quality impacts and health impacts attributable to UK airports remain largely unstudied. We produce an inventory of UK airport emissions - including aircraft landing and takeoff (LTO) operations and airside support equipment - with uncertainties quantified. The airports studied account for more than 95% of UK air passengers in 2005. We estimate that in 2005, UK airports emitted 10.2 Gg [-23 to +29%] of NOx, 0.73 Gg [-29 to +32%] of SO2, 11.7 Gg [-42 to +77%] of CO, 1.8 Gg [-59 to +155%] of HC, 2.4 Tg [-13 to +12%] of CO2, and 0.31 Gg [-36 to +45%] of PM2.5. This translates to 2.5 Tg [-12 to +12%] CO2-eq using Global Warming Potentials for a 100-year time horizon. Uncertainty estimates were based on analysis of data from aircraft emissions measurement campaigns and analyses of aircraft operations.The First-Order Approximation (FOA3) - currently the standard approach used to estimate particulate matter emissions from aircraft - is compared to measurements and it is shown that there are discrepancies greater than an order of magnitude for 40% of cases for both organic carbon and black carbon emissions indices. Modified methods to approximate organic carbon emissions, arising from incomplete combustion and lubrication oil, and black carbon are proposed. These alterations lead to factor 8 and a 44% increase in the annual emissions estimates of black and organic carbon particulate matter, respectively, leading to a factor 3.4 increase in total PM2.5 emissions compared to the current FOA3 methodology. Our estimates of emissions are used in Part II to quantify the air quality and health impacts of UK airports, to assess mitigation options, and to estimate the impacts of a potential London airport expansion. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Impacts of concurrency, iteration, design review, and problem complexity on design project lead time and error generation

A case study of an aircraft engine manufacturer is used to analyze the effects of management levers on the lead time and design errors generated in an iteration-intensive concurrent engineering process. The levers considered are amount of design-space exploration iteration, degree of process concurrency, and timing of design reviews. Simulation is used to show how the ideal combination of these levers can vary with changes in design problem complexity, which can increase, for instance, when novel technology is incorporated in a design. Results confirm that it is important to consider multiple iteration-influencing factors and their interdependencies to understand concurrent processes, because the factors can interact with confounding effects. The article also demonstrates a new approach to derive a system dynamics model from a process task network. The new approach could be applied to analyze other concurrent engineering scenarios. © The Author(s) 2012.

A method and tool for 'cradle to grave' embodied carbon and energy impacts of UK buildings in compliance with the new TC350 standards

As operational impacts from buildings are reduced, embodied impacts are increasing. However, the latter are seldom calculated in the UK; when they are, they tend to be calculated after the building has been constructed, or are underestimated by considering only the initial materials stage. In 2010, the UK Government recommended that a standard methodology for calculating embodied impacts of buildings be developed for early stage design decisions. This was followed in 2011-12 by the publication of the European TC350 standards defining the 'cradle to grave' impact of buildings and products through a process Life Cycle Analysis. This paper describes a new whole life embodied carbon and energy of buildings (ECEB) tool, designed as a usable empirical-based approach for early stage design decisions for UK buildings. The tool complies where possible with the TC350 standards. Initial results for a simple masonry construction dwelling are given in terms of the percentage contribution of each life cycle stage. The main difficulty in obtaining these results is found to be the lack of data, and the paper suggests that the construction and manufacturing industries now have a responsibility to develop new data in order to support this task. © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Air quality and climate impacts of alternative bus technologies in Greater London.

The environmental impact of diesel-fueled buses can potentially be reduced by the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies such as lean-burn compressed natural gas (LB-CNG) or hybrid electric buses (HEB), and emissions control strategies such as a continuously regenerating trap (CRT), exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), or selective catalytic reduction with trap (SCRT). This study assessed the environmental costs and benefits of these bus technologies in Greater London relative to the existing fleet and characterized emissions changes due to alternative technologies. We found a >30% increase in CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions for CNG buses, a <5% change for exhaust treatment scenarios, and a 13% (90% confidence interval 3.8-20.9%) reduction for HEB relative to baseline CO2e emissions. A multiscale regional chemistry-transport model quantified the impact of alternative bus technologies on air quality, which was then related to premature mortality risk. We found the largest decrease in population exposure (about 83%) to particulate matter (PM2.5) occurred with LB-CNG buses. Monetized environmental and investment costs relative to the baseline gave estimated net present cost of LB-CNG or HEB conversion to be $187 million ($73 million to $301 million) or $36 million ($-25 million to $102 million), respectively, while EGR or SCRT estimated net present costs were $19 million ($7 million to $32 million) or $15 million ($8 million to $23 million), respectively.