Options for achieving a 50% cut in industrial carbon emissions by 2050.

Carbon emissions from industry are dominated by production of goods in steel, cement plastic, paper, and aluminum. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global carbon emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target the global flows of these materials and their associated emissions are projected to 2050 under five technical scenarios. A reference scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient reduction. The application of carbon sequestration to primary production proves to be sufficient only for cement The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, for instance through product life extension, material substitution, or "light-weighting". Reusing components shows significant potential particularly within construction. Radical process innovation may also be possible. The results show that the first two strategies, based on increasing primary production, cannot achieve the required emissions reductions, so should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to allow provision of increased material services with reduced primary production.

Briefing: Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050 - Urban Foresight and Transition Management

Cities may be responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption and by 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population could live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city regions systemically to re-engineer their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050: Urban Foresight and Transition Management (Retrofit 2050) is a major new interdisciplinary project funded under the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council's (EPSRC) Sustainable Urban Environments Programme which seeks to address this challenge. This briefing describes the background and conceptual framing of Retrofit 2050 project, its aims and objectives and research approach.

Assessing the potential of yield improvements, through process scrap reduction, for energy and CO2 abatement in the steel and aluminium sectors

Targets to cut 2050 CO2 emissions in the steel and aluminium sectors by 50%, whilst demand is expected to double, cannot be met by energy efficiency measures alone, so options that reduce total demand for liquid metal production must also be considered. Such reductions could occur through reduced demand for final goods (for instance by life extension), reduced demand for material use in each product (for instance by lightweight design) or reduced demand for material to make existing products. The last option, improving the yield of manufacturing processes from liquid metal to final product, is attractive in being invisible to the final customer, but has had little attention to date. Accordingly this paper aims to provide an estimate of the potential to make existing products with less liquid metal production. Yield ratios have been measured for five case study products, through a series of detailed factory visits, along each supply chain. The results of these studies, presented on graphs of cumulative energy against yield, demonstrate how the embodied energy in final products may be up to 15 times greater than the energy required to make liquid metal, due to yield losses. A top-down evaluation of the global flows of steel and aluminium showed that 26% of liquid steel and 41% of liquid aluminium produced does not make it into final products, but is diverted as process scrap and recycled. Reducing scrap substitutes production by recycling and could reduce total energy use by 17% and 6% and total CO 2 emissions by 16% and 7% for the steel and aluminium industries respectively, using forming and fabrication energy values from the case studies. The abatement potential of process scrap elimination is similar in magnitude to worldwide implementation of best available standards of energy efficiency and demonstrates how decreasing the recycled content may sometimes result in emission reductions. Evidence from the case studies suggests that whilst most companies are aware of their own yield ratios, few, if any, are fully aware of cumulative losses along their whole supply chain. Addressing yield losses requires this awareness to motivate collaborative approaches to improvement. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of adaptive thermal comfort in the prediction of the thermal performance of a modern mixed-mode office building in the UK under climate change

Climate change is becoming a serious issue for the construction industry, since the time scales at which climate change takes place can be expected to show a true impact on the thermal performance of buildings and HVAC systems. In predicting this future building performance by means of building simulation, the underlying assumptions regarding thermal comfort conditions and the related heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) control set points become important. This article studies the thermal performance of a reference office building with mixedmode ventilation in the UK, using static and adaptive thermal approaches, for a series of time horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). Results demonstrate the importance of the implementation of adaptive thermal comfort models, and underpin the case for its use in climate change impact studies. Adaptive thermal comfort can also be used by building designers to make buildings more resilient towards change. © 2010 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

The technical potential for reducing metal requirements through lightweight product design

Metal production consumes around 10% of all global energy, so is a significant driver of climate change and other concerns about sustainability. Demand for metal is rising and forecast to double by 2050 through a combination of growing total demand from developing countries, and ongoing replacement demand in developed economies. Metal production is already extremely efficient, so the major opportunities for emissions abatement in the sector are likely to arise from material efficiency - using less new metal to meet demand for services. Therefore this paper examines the opportunity to reduce requirements for steel and aluminium by lightweight design. A set of general principles for lightweight design are proposed by way of a simple analytical example, and are then applied to five case study products which cumulatively account for 30% of global steel product output. It is shown that exploiting lightweight design opportunities for these five products alone could reduce global steel requirements by 5%, and similar savings in aluminium products could reduce global aluminium requirements by 7%. If similar savings to those in the design case studies were possible in all steel and aluminium products, total material requirements could be reduced by 25-30%. However, many of these light-weighting measures are, at present, economically unattractive, and may take many years to implement. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Comparative Review of Existing Data and Methodologies for Calculating Embodied Energy and Carbon of Buildings

In the Climate Change Act of 2008 the UK Government pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. As one step towards this, regulations are being introduced requiring all new buildings to be ‘zero carbon’ by 2019. These are defined as buildings which emit net zero carbon during their operational lifetime. However, in order to meet the 80% target it is necessary to reduce the carbon emitted during the whole life-cycle of buildings, including that emitted during the processes of construction. These elements make up the ‘embodied carbon’ of the building. While there are no regulations yet in place to restrict embodied carbon, a number of different approaches have been made. There are several existing databases of embodied carbon and embodied energy. Most provide data for the material extraction and manufacturing only, the ‘cradle to factory gate’ phase. In addition to the databases, various software tools have been developed to calculate embodied energy and carbon of individual buildings. A third source of data comes from the research literature, in which individual life cycle analyses of buildings are reported. This paper provides a comprehensive review, comparing and assessing data sources, boundaries and methodologies. The paper concludes that the wide variations in these aspects produce incomparable results. It highlights the areas where existing data is reliable, and where new data and more precise methods are needed. This comprehensive review will guide the future development of a consistent and transparent database and software tool to calculate the embodied energy and carbon of buildings.

The development of a hot rolling process for variable cross-section I-beams

To meet targeted reductions in CO 2 emissions by 2050, demand for metal must be cut, for example through the use of lightweight technologies. However, the efficient production of weight optimized components often requires new, more flexible forming processes. In this paper, a novel hot rolling process is presented for forming I-beams with variable cross-section, which are lighter than prismatic alternatives. First, the new process concept is presented and described. A detailed computational and experimental analysis is then conducted into the capabilities of the process. Results show that the process is capable of producing defect free I-beams with variations in web depth of 30-50%. A full analysis of the process then indicates the likely failure modes, and identifies a safe operating window. Finally, the implications of these results for producing lightweight beams are discussed. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The flow of steel into the construction sector

Half of the world's annual production of steel is used in constructing buildings and infrastructure. Producing this steel causes significant amounts of carbon dioxide to be released into the atmosphere. Climate change experts recommend this amount be halved by 2050; however steel demand is predicted to have doubled by this date. As process efficiency improvements will not reach the required 75% reduction in emissions per unit steel output, new methods must be examined to deliver service using less steel production. To apply such methods successfully to construction, it must first be known where steel is used currently within the industry. This information is not available so a methodology is proposed to estimate it from known data. Results are presented for steel flows by product for ten construction sectors for both the UK and the world in 2006. An estimate for steel use within a 'typical' building is also published for the first time. Industrial buildings and utility infrastructure are identified as the largest end-uses of steel, while superstructure is confirmed as the main use of steel in a building. The results highlight discrepancies in previous steel estimates and life-cycle assessments, and will inform future research on lowering demand for steel, hence reducing carbon emissions. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping the global flow of steel: from steelmaking to end-use goods.

Our society is addicted to steel. Global demand for steel has risen to 1.4 billion tonnes a year and is set to at least double by 2050, while the steel industry generates nearly a 10th of the world's energy related CO₂ emissions. Meeting our 2050 climate change targets would require a 75% reduction in CO₂ emissions for every tonne of steel produced and finding credible solutions is proving a challenge. The starting point for understanding the environmental impacts of steel production is to accurately map the global steel supply chain and identify the biggest steel flows where actions can be directed to deliver the largest impact. In this paper we present a map of global steel, which for the first time traces steel flows from steelmaking, through casting, forming, and rolling, to the fabrication of final goods. The diagram reveals the relative scale of steel flows and shows where efforts to improve energy and material efficiency should be focused.

Transitions to material efficiency in the UK steel economy.

Steel production is energy intensive so already has achieved impressive levels of energy efficiency. If the emissions associated with steel must be reduced in line with the requirements of the UK Climate Change Act, demand for new steel must be reduced. The strategies of 'material efficiency' aim to achieve such a reduction, while delivering the same final services. To meet the emissions targets set into UK law, UK consumption of steel must be reduced to 30 per cent of present levels by 2050. Previous work has revealed six strategies that could contribute to this target, and this paper presents an approximate analysis of the required transition. A macro-economic analysis of steel in the UK shows that while the steel industry is relatively small, the construction and manufacturing sectors are large, and it would be politically unacceptable to pursue options that lead to a major contraction in other sectors. Alternative business models are therefore required, and these are explored through four representative products--one for each final sector with particular emphasis given to options for reducing product weight, and extending product life. Preliminary evidence on the triggers that would lead to customers preferring these options is presented and organized in order to predict required policy measures. The estimated analysis of transitions explored in this paper is used to define target questions for future research in the area.

The energy required to produce materials: constraints on energy-intensity improvements, parameters of demand.

In this paper, we review the energy requirements to make materials on a global scale by focusing on the five construction materials that dominate energy used in material production: steel, cement, paper, plastics and aluminium. We then estimate the possibility of reducing absolute material production energy by half, while doubling production from the present to 2050. The goal therefore is a 75 per cent reduction in energy intensity. Four technology-based strategies are investigated, regardless of cost: (i) widespread application of best available technology (BAT), (ii) BAT to cutting-edge technologies, (iii) aggressive recycling and finally, and (iv) significant improvements in recycling technologies. Taken together, these aggressive strategies could produce impressive gains, of the order of a 50-56 per cent reduction in energy intensity, but this is still short of our goal of a 75 per cent reduction. Ultimately, we face fundamental thermodynamic as well as practical constraints on our ability to improve the energy intensity of material production. A strategy to reduce demand by providing material services with less material (called 'material efficiency') is outlined as an approach to solving this dilemma.

Future-proofed energy design for dwellings: Case studies from England and application to the Code for Sustainable Homes

This paper investigates 'future-proofing' as an unexplored yet all-important aspect in the design of low-energy dwellings. It refers particularly to adopting lifecycle thinking and accommodating risks and uncertainties in the selection of fabric energy efficiency measures and low or zero-carbon technologies. Based on a conceptual framework for future-proofed design, the paper first presents results from the analysis of two 'best practice' housing developments in England; i.e., North West Cambridge in Cambridge and West Carclaze and Baal in St. Austell, Cornwall. Second, it examines the 'Energy and CO2 Emissions' part of the Code for Sustainable Homes to reveal which design criteria and assessment methods can be practically integrated into this established building certification scheme so that it can become more dynamic and future-oriented.Practical application: Future-proofed construction is promoted implicitly within the increasingly stringent building regulations; however, there is no comprehensive method to readily incorporate futures thinking into the energy design of buildings. This study has a three-fold objective of relevance to the building industry:Illuminating the two key categories of long-term impacts in buildings, which are often erroneously treated interchangeably:- The environmental impact of buildings due to their long lifecycles.- The environment's impacts on buildings due to risks and uncertainties affecting the energy consumption by at least 2050. This refers to social, technological, economic, environmental and regulatory (predictable or unknown) trends and drivers of change, such as climate uncertainty, home-working, technology readiness etc.Encouraging future-proofing from an early planning stage to reduce the likelihood of a prematurely obsolete building design.Enhancing established building energy assessment methods (certification, modelling or audit tools) by integrating a set of future-oriented criteria into their methodologies. © 2012 The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers.