Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

Flame imaging of gas-turbine relight

High-altitude relight inside a lean-direct-injection gas-turbine combustor is investigated experimentally by highspeed imaging. Realistic operating conditions are simulated in a ground-based test facility, with two conditions being studied: one inside and one outside the combustor ignition loop. The motion of hot gases during the early stages of relight is recorded using a high-speed camera. An algorithm is developed to track the flame movement and breakup, revealing important characteristics of the flame development process, including stabilization timescales, spatial trajectories, and typical velocities of hot gas motion. Although the observed patterns of ignition failure are in broad agreement with results from laboratory-scale studies, other aspects of relight behavior are not reproduced in laboratory experiments employing simplified flow geometries and operating conditions. For example, when the spark discharge occurs, the air velocity below the igniter in a real combustor is much less strongly correlated to ignition outcome than laboratory studies would suggest. Nevertheless, later flame development and stabilization are largely controlled by the cold flowfield, implying that the location of the igniter may, in the first instance, be selected based on the combustor cold flow. Copyright © 2010.