Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

Language model combination and adaptation using weighted finite state transducers

In speech recognition systems language model (LMs) are often constructed by training and combining multiple n-gram models. They can be either used to represent different genres or tasks found in diverse text sources, or capture stochastic properties of different linguistic symbol sequences, for example, syllables and words. Unsupervised LM adaptation may also be used to further improve robustness to varying styles or tasks. When using these techniques, extensive software changes are often required. In this paper an alternative and more general approach based on weighted finite state transducers (WFSTs) is investigated for LM combination and adaptation. As it is entirely based on well-defined WFST operations, minimum change to decoding tools is needed. A wide range of LM combination configurations can be flexibly supported. An efficient on-the-fly WFST decoding algorithm is also proposed. Significant error rate gains of 7.3% relative were obtained on a state-of-the-art broadcast audio recognition task using a history dependently adapted multi-level LM modelling both syllable and word sequences. ©2010 IEEE.

External corporate venture capital investment: Towards a framework for capturing and measuring strategic value

This paper presents the initial results of on-going research in the field of external Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) investments, i.e. equity investments of large corporations in entrepreneurial ventures which originated outside the corporation. The research is motivated by the fact that external CVC plays an increasingly important role within the strategy of corporations. Driven by a general trend towards a more open approach to innovation, companies see particular value in external corporate venturing as a tool to gain, for example, access to complementary technologies and a general window on technology developments. The review of literature in the field of external corporate venturing clearly reveals that theoretical gaps exist in understanding mechanisms for capturing value and measurements of this value. To help close these gaps, the research addresses the underlying question "How do corporations and start-ups capture and measure strategic value through external CVC investments" by using embedded, multiple case studies. Following an initial set of case studies, steps towards the development of a framework for capturing and measuring strategic value from CVC investments are outlined within this paper and the resulting preliminary framework is presented. The paper closes with an outlook on ongoing and future research steps. © 2009 PICMET.

Assessment of computational fluid dynamics and experimental data for shock boundary-layer interactions

A workshop on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction of shock boundary-layer interactions (SBLIs) was held at the 48th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting. As part of the workshop, numerous CFD analysts submitted solutions to four experimentally measured SBLIs. This paper describes the assessment of the CFD predictions. The assessment includes an uncertainty analysis of the experimental data, the definition of an error metric, and the application of that metric to the CFD solutions. The CFD solutions provided very similar levels of error and, in general, it was difficult to discern clear trends in the data. For the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methods, the choice of turbulence model appeared to be the largest factor in solution accuracy. Scale-resolving methods, such as large-eddy simulation (LES), hybrid RANS/LES, and direct numerical simulation, produced error levels similar to RANS methods but provided superior predictions of normal stresses. Copyright © 2012 by Daniella E. Raveh and Michael Iovnovich.