Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications

The uncertainty associated with a rainfall-runoff and non-point source loading (NPS) model can be attributed to both the parameterization and model structure. An interesting implication of the areal nature of NPS models is the direct relationship between model structure (i.e. sub-watershed size) and sample size for the parameterization of spatial data. The approach of this research is to find structural limitations in scale for the use of the conceptual NPS model, then examine the scales at which suitable stochastic depictions of key parameter sets can be generated. The overlapping regions are optimal (and possibly the only suitable regions) for conducting meaningful stochastic analysis with a given NPS model. Previous work has sought to find optimal scales for deterministic analysis (where, in fact, calibration can be adjusted to compensate for sub-optimal scale selection); however, analysis of stochastic suitability and uncertainty associated with both the conceptual model and the parameter set, as presented here, is novel; as is the strategy of delineating a watershed based on the uncertainty distribution. The results of this paper demonstrate a narrow range of acceptable model structure for stochastic analysis in the chosen NPS model. In the case examined, the uncertainties associated with parameterization and parameter sensitivity are shown to be outweighed in significance by those resulting from structural and conceptual decisions. © 2011 Copyright IAHS Press.

Construction of nonparametric Bayesian models from parametric Bayes equations

We consider the general problem of constructing nonparametric Bayesian models on infinite-dimensional random objects, such as functions, infinite graphs or infinite permutations. The problem has generated much interest in machine learning, where it is treated heuristically, but has not been studied in full generality in non-parametric Bayesian statistics, which tends to focus on models over probability distributions. Our approach applies a standard tool of stochastic process theory, the construction of stochastic processes from their finite-dimensional marginal distributions. The main contribution of the paper is a generalization of the classic Kolmogorov extension theorem to conditional probabilities. This extension allows a rigorous construction of nonparametric Bayesian models from systems of finite-dimensional, parametric Bayes equations. Using this approach, we show (i) how existence of a conjugate posterior for the nonparametric model can be guaranteed by choosing conjugate finite-dimensional models in the construction, (ii) how the mapping to the posterior parameters of the nonparametric model can be explicitly determined, and (iii) that the construction of conjugate models in essence requires the finite-dimensional models to be in the exponential family. As an application of our constructive framework, we derive a model on infinite permutations, the nonparametric Bayesian analogue of a model recently proposed for the analysis of rank data.

Statistical parametric speech synthesis based on speaker and language factorization

An increasingly common scenario in building speech synthesis and recognition systems is training on inhomogeneous data. This paper proposes a new framework for estimating hidden Markov models on data containing both multiple speakers and multiple languages. The proposed framework, speaker and language factorization, attempts to factorize speaker-/language-specific characteristics in the data and then model them using separate transforms. Language-specific factors in the data are represented by transforms based on cluster mean interpolation with cluster-dependent decision trees. Acoustic variations caused by speaker characteristics are handled by transforms based on constrained maximum-likelihood linear regression. Experimental results on statistical parametric speech synthesis show that the proposed framework enables data from multiple speakers in different languages to be used to: train a synthesis system; synthesize speech in a language using speaker characteristics estimated in a different language; and adapt to a new language. © 2012 IEEE.

Toward automated generation of parametric BIMs based on hybrid video and laser scanning data

Only very few constructed facilities today have a complete record of as-built information. Despite the growing use of Building Information Modelling and the improvement in as-built records, several more years will be required before guidelines that require as-built data modelling will be implemented for the majority of constructed facilities, and this will still not address the stock of existing buildings. A technical solution for scanning buildings and compiling Building Information Models is needed. However, this is a multidisciplinary problem, requiring expertise in scanning, computer vision and videogrammetry, machine learning, and parametric object modelling. This paper outlines the technical approach proposed by a consortium of researchers that has gathered to tackle the ambitious goal of automating as-built modelling as far as possible. The top level framework of the proposed solution is presented, and each process, input and output is explained, along with the steps needed to validate them. Preliminary experiments on the earlier stages (i.e. processes) of the framework proposed are conducted and results are shown; the work toward implementation of the remainder is ongoing.