Value roadmapping: A structured approach for early stage technology investment decisions

Deciding to invest in early stage technologies is one of the most important tasks of technology management and arguably also the most uncertain. It assumes a particular significance in the rise of technology companies in emerging economies, which have to make appropriate investment decisions. Technology managers already have a wide range of methods and tools at their disposal, but these are mostly focussed on quantitative measures such as discounted cash flow and real options techniques. However, in the early stages of technology development there seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with these techniques as there appears to be a lack of accuracy with respect to the underlying assumptions that these models require. In order to complement these models this paper will discuss an alternative approach that we call value road-mapping. By adapting roadmapping techniques the potential value streams of early stages technologies can be plotted and hence a clearer consensus based picture of the future potential of new technologies emerges. Roadmapping is a workshop-based process bringing together multifunctional perspectives, and supporting communication in particular between technical and commercial groups. The study is work in progress and is based on a growing number of cases. (c) 2006 PICMET.

Performance of choked unsteady ejector-nozzles for use in pressure-gain combustors

If the conventional steady flow combustor of a gas turbine is replaced with a device which achieves a pressure gain during the combustion process then the thermal efficiency of the cycle is raised. All such 'Pressure Gain Combustors' (e.g. PDEs, pulse combustors or wave rotors) are inherently unsteady flow devices. For such a device to be practically installed in a gas turbine it is necessary to design a downstream row of turbine vanes which will both accept the combustors unsteady exit flow and deliver a flow which the turbine rotor can accept. The design requirements of such a vane are that its exit flow both retains the maximum time-mean stagnation pressure gain (the pressure gain produced by the combustor is not lost) and minimises the amplitude of unsteadiness (reduces unsteadiness entering the downstream rotor). In this paper the exit of the pressure gain combustor is simulated with a cold unsteady jet. The first stage vane is simulated by a one-dimensional choked ejector nozzle with no turning. The time-mean and rms stagnation pressure at nozzle exit is measured. A number of geometric configurations are investigated and it is shown that the optimal geometry both maximizes time mean stagnation pressure gain (75% of that in the exit of the unsteady jet) and minimizes the amplitude of unsteadiness (1/3 of that in the primary jet). The structure of the unsteady flow within the ejector nozzle is determined computationally. Copyright © 2009 by J Heffer and R Miller.

A transonic vane for use downstream of a pressure gain combustor

Replacing a conventional combustor in a gas turbine with one that produces a pressure gain could significantly raise cycle efficiency. For this efficiency gain to be achieved the exit flow from the combustor must be coupled to the downstream turbine such that the pressure gain produced by the combustor is retained and such that the turbine efficiency is maintained. The exit flow from a pressure gain combustor will often contain a high velocity unsteady jet. It has previously been proposed that ejectors should be used to harness the energy in the unsteady jet, this paper proposes combining an ejector with the first stage vane, producing a single compact component that preserves the combustion driven pressure gain and delivers a suitable flow to the turbine so that its efficiency is not compromised. This novel component has been experimentally tested for the first time. The performance of this first prototype design is found to be low due to high levels of loss generated by secondary flows. However possible mitigation strategies are discussed. It is shown that the unsteadiness at exit form the ejector-vane is reduced compared to the inlet flow. If a pulse combustor were incorporated into a gas turbine, it is unlikely that the level of unsteadiness experienced in a downstream rotor will be significantly larger that that due to the periodic passing of upstream wakes. Copyright © 2010 by Jonathan Heffer.

Multiple object tracking using evolutionary MCMC-based particle algorithms

Algorithms are presented for detection and tracking of multiple clusters of co-ordinated targets. Based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling mechanization, the new algorithms maintain a discrete approximation of the filtering density of the clusters' state. The filters' tracking efficiency is enhanced by incorporating various sampling improvement strategies into the basic Metropolis-Hastings scheme. Thus, an evolutionary stage consisting of two primary steps is introduced: 1) producing a population of different chain realizations, and 2) exchanging genetic material between samples in this population. The performance of the resulting evolutionary filtering algorithms is demonstrated in two different settings. In the first, both group and target properties are estimated whereas in the second, which consists of a very large number of targets, only the clustering structure is maintained. © 2009 IFAC.

Impedance control and internal model use during the initial stage of adaptation to novel dynamics in humans.

This study investigated the neuromuscular mechanisms underlying the initial stage of adaptation to novel dynamics. A destabilizing velocity-dependent force field (VF) was introduced for sets of three consecutive trials. Between sets a random number of 4-8 null field trials were interposed, where the VF was inactivated. This prevented subjects from learning the novel dynamics, making it possible to repeatedly recreate the initial adaptive response. We were able to investigate detailed changes in neural control between the first, second and third VF trials. We identified two feedforward control mechanisms, which were initiated on the second VF trial and resulted in a 50% reduction in the hand path error. Responses to disturbances encountered on the first VF trial were feedback in nature, i.e. reflexes and voluntary correction of errors. However, on the second VF trial, muscle activation patterns were modified in anticipation of the effects of the force field. Feedforward cocontraction of all muscles was used to increase the viscoelastic impedance of the arm. While stiffening the arm, subjects also exerted a lateral force to counteract the perturbing effect of the force field. These anticipatory actions indicate that the central nervous system responds rapidly to counteract hitherto unfamiliar disturbances by a combination of increased viscoelastic impedance and formation of a crude internal dynamics model.