Automatic construction and natural-language description of nonparametric regression models

Copyright © 2014, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved. This paper presents the beginnings of an automatic statistician, focusing on regression problems. Our system explores an open-ended space of statistical models to discover a good explanation of a data set, and then produces a detailed report with figures and natural- language text. Our approach treats unknown regression functions non- parametrically using Gaussian processes, which has two important consequences. First, Gaussian processes can model functions in terms of high-level properties (e.g. smoothness, trends, periodicity, changepoints). Taken together with the compositional structure of our language of models this allows us to automatically describe functions in simple terms. Second, the use of flexible nonparametric models and a rich language for composing them in an open-ended manner also results in state- of-the-art extrapolation performance evaluated over 13 real time series data sets from various domains.

Calibrating the Gaussian multi-target tracking model

We present novel batch and online (sequential) versions of the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm for inferring the static parameters of a multiple target tracking (MTT) model. Online EM is of particular interest as it is a more practical method for long data sets since in batch EM, or a full Bayesian approach, a complete browse of the data is required between successive parameter updates. Online EM is also suited to MTT applications that demand real-time processing of the data. Performance is assessed in numerical examples using simulated data for various scenarios. For batch estimation our method significantly outperforms an existing gradient based maximum likelihood technique, which we show to be significantly biased. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Unified form language: A domain-specific language for weak formulations of partial differential equations

We present the Unified Form Language (UFL), which is a domain-specific language for representing weak formulations of partial differential equations with a view to numerical approximation. Features of UFL include support for variational forms and functionals, automatic differentiation of forms and expressions, arbitrary function space hierarchies formultifield problems, general differential operators and flexible tensor algebra. With these features, UFL has been used to effortlessly express finite element methods for complex systems of partial differential equations in near-mathematical notation, resulting in compact, intuitive and readable programs. We present in this work the language and its construction. An implementation of UFL is freely available as an open-source software library. The library generates abstract syntax tree representations of variational problems, which are used by other software libraries to generate concrete low-level implementations. Some application examples are presented and libraries that support UFL are highlighted. © 2014 ACM.