The dynamics of industrial emergence

The need to stimulate, identify and nurture new industries is a prominent challenge in advanced economies. While basic science represents a valuable source of new ideas and opportunities, it can often take decades before this science finally finds application in the market. While numerous studies have to date focused on aspects of industrial evolution, (e.g. innovation, internationalisation, new product introduction, technological lifecycles and emerging technologies), far fewer have focused on technology-based industrial emergence. It is clear that if assistance is to be provided to firms and industrial policymakers attempting to navigate industrial emergence then we need an improved understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of this phenomenon. Accordingly, this paper reviews published work from a range of disparate disciplines - evolutionary theory, social construction of technology (SCOT), complexity science, industrial dynamics and technology management - to identify these dynamics. Through this review we conceptualise industrial emergence as a co-evolutionary process in which nonlinear dynamics operate. Industrial emergence is sensitive to the initial availability of resources and the market applications, with growth dependent on the supply-demand coupling, agents' actions to reduce uncertainty and catalytic events. Through synthesizing these key dynamics we go on to propose a conceptual model for industrial emergence. © 2010 IEEE.

Study on the critical submergence of surface vortices and the design of anti-vortex intakes

Surface vortex behavior in front of the tunnel intake was investigated in this paper. The critical submergence of vortex was discussed based on the concept of 'critical spherical sink surface' (CSSS). The vortex formation and evolution at the tunnel intake were analyzed based on the theory of CSSS considering the effect of circulation. A theory was proposed to explain the surface vortex. The theoretical development was verified by the physical model experiments of Xiluodu hydropower station. The radial velocity and vortex circulation were considered as the main factors that influence the formation and evolution of surface vortex. Finally, an anti-vortex intake configuration was proposed to weaken the air-core vortex in front of the tunnel intakes of the hydraulic structures. © 2011 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design

Design work involves uncertainty that arises from, and influences, the progressive development of solutions. This paper analyses the influences of evolving uncertainty levels on the design process. We focus on uncertainties associated with choosing the values of design parameters, and do not consider in detail the issues that arise when parameters must first be identified. Aspects of uncertainty and its evolution are discussed, and a new task-based model is introduced to describe process behaviour in terms of changing uncertainty levels. The model is applied to study two process configuration problems based on aircraft wing design: one using an analytical solution and one using Monte-Carlo simulation. The applications show that modelling uncertainty levels during design can help assess management policies, such as how many concepts should be considered during design and to what level of accuracy. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.