N-gram posterior probability confidence measures for statistical machine translation: An empirical study

We report an empirical study of n-gram posterior probability confidence measures for statistical machine translation (SMT). We first describe an efficient and practical algorithm for rapidly computing n-gram posterior probabilities from large translation word lattices. These probabilities are shown to be a good predictor of whether or not the n-gram is found in human reference translations, motivating their use as a confidence measure for SMT. Comprehensive n-gram precision and word coverage measurements are presented for a variety of different language pairs, domains and conditions. We analyze the effect on reference precision of using single or multiple references, and compare the precision of posteriors computed from k-best lists to those computed over the full evidence space of the lattice. We also demonstrate improved confidence by combining multiple lattices in a multi-source translation framework. © 2012 The Author(s).

Probability-Matching Predictors for Extreme Extremes

A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the three-parameter {\mu, \sigma, \xi} Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The predictor is designed to provide matching probability exactly for the GPD in both the extreme heavy-tailed limit and the extreme bounded-tail limit, whilst giving a good approximation to probability matching at all intermediate values of the tail parameter \xi. The predictor is valid even for small sample sizes N, even as small as N = 3. The main purpose of this paper is to present the somewhat lengthy derivations which draw heavily on the theory of hypergeometric functions, particularly the Lauricella functions. Whilst the construction is inspired by the Bayesian approach to the prediction problem, it considers the case of vague prior information about both parameters and model, and all derivations are undertaken using sampling theory.

Effects of the biodiesel fuel physical properties on the swirl stabilised spray combustion characteristics

An increasin g interest in biofuel applications in modern engines requires a better understanding of biodiesel combustion behaviour. Many numerical studies have been carried out on unsteady combustion of biodiesel in situations similar to diesel engines, but very few studies have been done on the steady combustion of biodiesel in situations similar to a gas turbine combustor environment. The study of biodiesel spray combustion in gas turbine applications is of special interest due to the possible use of biodiesel in the power generation and aviation industries. In modelling spray combustion, an accurate representation of the physical properties of the fuel is a first important step, since spray formation is largely influenced by fuel properties such as viscosity, density, surface tension and vapour pressure. In the present work, a calculated biodiesel properties database based on the measured composition of Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAME) has been implemented in a multi-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) spray simulation code. Simulations of non-reacting and reacting atmospheric-pressure sprays of both diesel and biodiesel have been carried out using a spray burner configuration for which experimental data is available. A pre-defined droplet size probability density function (pdf) has been implemented together with droplet dynamics based on phase Doppler anemometry (PDA) measurements in the near-nozzle region. The gas phase boundary condition for the reacting spray cases is similar to that of the experiment which employs a plain air-blast atomiser and a straight-vane axial swirler for flame stabilisation. A reaction mechanism for heptane has been used to represent the chemistry for both diesel and biodiesel. Simulated flame heights, spray characteristics and gas phase velocities have been found to compare well with the experimental results. In the reacting spray cases, biodiesel shows a smaller mean droplet size compared to that of diesel at a constant fuel mass flow rate. A lack of sensitivity towards different fuel properties has been observed based on the non-reacting spray simulations, which indicates a need for improved models of secondary breakup. By comparing the results of the non-reacting and reacting spray simulations, an improvement in the complexity of the physical modelling is achieved which is necessary in the understanding of the complex physical processes involved in spray combustion simulation. Copyright © 2012 SAE International.

An integrated representation of the services provided by global water resources

Water is essential not only to maintain the livelihoods of human beings but also to sustain ecosystems. Over the last few decades several global assessments have reviewed current and future uses of water, and have offered potential solutions to a possible water crisis. However, these have tended to focus on water supply rather than on the range of demands for all water services (including those of ecosystems). In this paper, a holistic global view of water resources and the services they provide is presented, using Sankey diagrams as a visualisation tool. These diagrams provide a valuable addition to the spatial maps of other global assessments, as they track the sources, uses, services and sinks of water resources. They facilitate comparison of different water services, and highlight trade-offs amongst them. For example, they reveal how increasing the supply of water resources to one service (crop production) can generate a reduction in provision of other water services (e.g., to ecosystem maintenance). The potential impacts of efficiency improvements in the use of water are also highlighted; for example, reduction in soil evaporation from crop production through better farming practices, or the results of improved treatment and re-use of return flows leading to reduction of delivery to final sinks. This paper also outlines the measures needed to ensure sustainable water resource use and supply for multiple competing services in the future, and emphasises that integrated management of land and water resources is essential to achieve this goal. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Detecting bipedal motion from correlated probabilistic trajectories

This paper is about detecting bipedal motion in video sequences by using point trajectories in a framework of classification. Given a number of point trajectories, we find a subset of points which are arising from feet in bipedal motion by analysing their spatio-temporal correlation in a pairwise fashion. To this end, we introduce probabilistic trajectories as our new features which associate each point over a sufficiently long time period in the presence of noise. They are extracted from directed acyclic graphs whose edges represent temporal point correspondences and are weighted with their matching probability in terms of appearance and location. The benefit of the new representation is that it practically tolerates inherent ambiguity for example due to occlusions. We then learn the correlation between the motion of two feet using the probabilistic trajectories in a decision forest classifier. The effectiveness of the algorithm is demonstrated in experiments on image sequences captured with a static camera, and extensions to deal with a moving camera are discussed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.