Options for achieving a 50% cut in industrial carbon emissions by 2050.

Carbon emissions from industry are dominated by production of goods in steel, cement plastic, paper, and aluminum. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global carbon emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target the global flows of these materials and their associated emissions are projected to 2050 under five technical scenarios. A reference scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient reduction. The application of carbon sequestration to primary production proves to be sufficient only for cement The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, for instance through product life extension, material substitution, or "light-weighting". Reusing components shows significant potential particularly within construction. Radical process innovation may also be possible. The results show that the first two strategies, based on increasing primary production, cannot achieve the required emissions reductions, so should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to allow provision of increased material services with reduced primary production.

Industrial practice in technology planning - Implications for a useful tool catalogue for technology management

A survey on technology planning and its implications for a useful tool catalogue for technology management was conducted. The survey provided a picture of technology planning, across a broad range of company size, manufacturing type and sector. It was concluded from the findings that technology planning is an important business activity across industry sectors and company types, driven increasing competition, market requirements and regulation technology change. The process technology roadmapping was used to support technology strategy and planning and could be useful way of structuring both the use of tools in a company and a tool catalogue.

Developing a framework for mapping industrial emergence

The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new industries and business models. This paper presents a preliminary framework for mapping industrial emergence, based on roadmapping principles, in order to understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena. The focus at this stage is on historical examples of industrial emergence, with the preliminary framework based on observations from 20 'quick scan' maps, one of which is used to illustrate the framework. The learning from these historical cases, combined with further industrial consultation and literature review, will be used to develop practical methods for strategy and policy application. The paper concludes by summarising key learning points and further work needed to achieve these outcomes. © 2009 PICMET.

Roadmapping in industrial companies: Experiences

From its origins in the US electronics sector in the 1970s, technology roadmapping has been adapted (and adopted) widely, for many different innovation, strategy and policy applications. Communication is commonly cited as one of the key benefi ts of roadmapping, particularly in terms of the process that brings different organizational perspectives together, with the roadmap providing a common visual 'language'. There is signifi cant demand for methods that are agile, in the sense of being rapid, flexible and effective to apply, focused on strategic decisions and actions. 'Fast-start' roadmapping workshop techniques enable key stakeholders to address strategic issues efficiently using the visual structure of roadmaps to capture, discuss, prioritize, explore and communicate. This paper presents the learning from a set of five diverse applications of the fast-start approach in the Basque Country, which demonstrate the agility of the technique.

Vibration and stress analysis in the presence of structural uncertainty

At medium to high frequencies the dynamic response of a built-up engineering system, such as an automobile, can be sensitive to small random manufacturing imperfections. Ideally the statistics of the system response in the presence of these uncertainties should be computed at the design stage, but in practice this is an extremely difficult task. In this paper a brief review of the methods available for the analysis of systems with uncertainty is presented, and attention is then focused on two particular "non- parametric" methods: statistical energy analysis (SEA), and the hybrid method. The main governing equations are presented, and a number of example applications are considered, ranging from academic benchmark studies to industrial design studies. © 2009 IOP Publishing Ltd.