Bayesian parameter identification for vibro-acoustic models with nonparametric uncertainty

Vibration and acoustic analysis at higher frequencies faces two challenges: computing the response without using an excessive number of degrees of freedom, and quantifying its uncertainty due to small spatial variations in geometry, material properties and boundary conditions. Efficient models make use of the observation that when the response of a decoupled vibro-acoustic subsystem is sufficiently sensitive to uncertainty in such spatial variations, the local statistics of its natural frequencies and mode shapes saturate to universal probability distributions. This holds irrespective of the causes that underly these spatial variations and thus leads to a nonparametric description of uncertainty. This work deals with the identification of uncertain parameters in such models by using experimental data. One of the difficulties is that both experimental errors and modeling errors, due to the nonparametric uncertainty that is inherent to the model type, are present. This is tackled by employing a Bayesian inference strategy. The prior probability distribution of the uncertain parameters is constructed using the maximum entropy principle. The likelihood function that is subsequently computed takes the experimental information, the experimental errors and the modeling errors into account. The posterior probability distribution, which is computed with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, provides a full uncertainty quantification of the identified parameters, and indicates how well their uncertainty is reduced, with respect to the prior information, by the experimental data. © 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Air quality and climate impacts of alternative bus technologies in Greater London.

The environmental impact of diesel-fueled buses can potentially be reduced by the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies such as lean-burn compressed natural gas (LB-CNG) or hybrid electric buses (HEB), and emissions control strategies such as a continuously regenerating trap (CRT), exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), or selective catalytic reduction with trap (SCRT). This study assessed the environmental costs and benefits of these bus technologies in Greater London relative to the existing fleet and characterized emissions changes due to alternative technologies. We found a >30% increase in CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions for CNG buses, a <5% change for exhaust treatment scenarios, and a 13% (90% confidence interval 3.8-20.9%) reduction for HEB relative to baseline CO2e emissions. A multiscale regional chemistry-transport model quantified the impact of alternative bus technologies on air quality, which was then related to premature mortality risk. We found the largest decrease in population exposure (about 83%) to particulate matter (PM2.5) occurred with LB-CNG buses. Monetized environmental and investment costs relative to the baseline gave estimated net present cost of LB-CNG or HEB conversion to be $187 million ($73 million to $301 million) or $36 million ($-25 million to $102 million), respectively, while EGR or SCRT estimated net present costs were $19 million ($7 million to $32 million) or $15 million ($8 million to $23 million), respectively.

Wetness loss prediction for a low pressure steam turbine using computational fluid dynamics

Two-phase computational fluid dynamics modelling is used to investigate the magnitude of different contributions to the wet steam losses in a three-stage model low pressure steam turbine. The thermodynamic losses (due to irreversible heat transfer across a finite temperature difference) and the kinematic relaxation losses (due to the frictional drag of the drops) are evaluated directly from the computational fluid dynamics simulation using a concept based on entropy production rates. The braking losses (due to the impact of large drops on the rotor) are investigated by a separate numerical prediction. The simulations show that in the present case, the dominant effect is the thermodynamic loss that accounts for over 90% of the wetness losses and that both the thermodynamic and the kinematic relaxation losses depend on the droplet diameter. The numerical results are brought into context with the well-known Baumann correlation, and a comparison with available measurement data in the literature is given. The ability of the numerical approach to predict the main wetness losses is confirmed, which permits the use of computational fluid dynamics for further studies on wetness loss correlations. © IMechE 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Guided self-organization in a dynamic embodied system based on attractor selection mechanism

Guided self-organization can be regarded as a paradigm proposed to understand how to guide a self-organizing system towards desirable behaviors, while maintaining its non-deterministic dynamics with emergent features. It is, however, not a trivial problem to guide the self-organizing behavior of physically embodied systems like robots, as the behavioral dynamics are results of interactions among their controller, mechanical dynamics of the body, and the environment. This paper presents a guided self-organization approach for dynamic robots based on a coupling between the system mechanical dynamics with an internal control structure known as the attractor selection mechanism. The mechanism enables the robot to gracefully shift between random and deterministic behaviors, represented by a number of attractors, depending on internally generated stochastic perturbation and sensory input. The robot used in this paper is a simulated curved beam hopping robot: a system with a variety of mechanical dynamics which depends on its actuation frequencies. Despite the simplicity of the approach, it will be shown how the approach regulates the probability of the robot to reach a goal through the interplay among the sensory input, the level of inherent stochastic perturbation, i.e., noise, and the mechanical dynamics. © 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.