Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

DEVELOPMENT OF MULTI-ANCHOR EARTH RETENTION SYSTEMS.

This paper discusses two projects, the first relating to tests on 'reinforced earth' conducted on the 1. 5 m radius centrifuge at U. M. I. S. T. and the second concerning a short pilot study on the T. R. R. L concept of 'anchored earth' carried out on the 5 m radius Cambridge Geotechnical Centrifuge. The paper proposes a role for centrifugal model testing in design evaluation, whether by the designer himself, his centrification authority, a rival patent holder, or a research worker.

Numerical modelling of dynamic response of loss modulated monolithic multisection mode-locked semiconductor lasers

Monolithic multisection mode-locked semiconductor lasers with an integrated distributed Bragg reflector (DBR) have recently been demonstrated to generate stable picosecond pulses at high repetition rates suitable for optical communication systems. However, there has been very little theoretical work on understanding the physical mechanisms of the device and on optimisation of the absorber modulator design. This article presents numerical modeling of the loss modulated mode-locking process in these lasers. The model predicts most aspects experimentally observed within this type of device, and the results show the output waveform, optical spectrum, instantaneous frequency chirp, and stable operating range.

Modelling and predictive control: Enabling technologies for reconfiguration

An approach to reconfiguring control systems in the event of major failures is advocated. The approach relies on the convergence of several technologies which are currently emerging: Constrained predictive control, High-fidelity modelling of complex systems, Fault detection and identification, and Model approximation and simplification. Much work is needed, both theoretical and algorithmic, to make this approach practical, but we believe that there is enough evidence, especially from existing industrial practice, for the scheme to be considered realistic. After outlining the problem and proposed solution, the paper briefly reviews constrained predictive control and object-oriented modelling, which are the essential ingredients for practical implementation. The prospects for automatic model simplification are also reviewed briefly. The paper emphasizes some emerging trends in industrial practice, especially as regards modelling and control of complex systems. Examples from process control and flight control are used to illustrate some of the ideas.

Duty cycle and modelling considerations in three-phase induction motor drives for washing machines

Three-phase induction motors offer significant advantages over commutator motors in some domestic appliances. Models for wide speed range three-phase induction motors for use in a horizontal axis washing machine have been developed using the MEGA finite element package with an external formulation for calculating iron losses. Motor loss predictions have been verified using a novel high accuracy calorimeter. Good agreement has been observed over a wide speed range at different loadings. The model is used to predict motor temperature rise under typical washing machine loading conditions to ensure its limiting temperature is not exceeded and enables alternative designs to be investigated without recourse to physical prototypes. © 2005 IEEE.

Investigation of acoustic units for LVCSR systems

One important issue in designing state-of-the-art LVCSR systems is the choice of acoustic units. Context dependent (CD) phones remain the dominant form of acoustic units. They can capture the co-articulatory effect in speech via explicit modelling. However, for other more complicated phonological processes, they rely on the implicit modelling ability of the underlying statistical models. Alternatively, it is possible to construct acoustic models based on higher level linguistic units, for example, syllables, to explicitly capture these complex patterns. When sufficient training data is available, this approach may show an advantage over implicit acoustic modelling. In this paper a wide range of acoustic units are investigated to improve LVCSR system performance. Significant error rate gains up to 7.1% relative (0.8% abs.) were obtained on a state-of-the-art Mandarin Chinese broadcast audio recognition task using word and syllable position dependent triphone and quinphone models. © 2011 IEEE.

Structured precision modelling with Cholesky basis superposition for speech recognition

Structured precision modelling is an important approach to improve the intra-frame correlation modelling of the standard HMM, where Gaussian mixture model with diagonal covariance are used. Previous work has all been focused on direct structured representation of the precision matrices. In this paper, a new framework is proposed, where the structure of the Cholesky square root of the precision matrix is investigated, referred to as Cholesky Basis Superposition (CBS). Each Cholesky matrix associated with a particular Gaussian distribution is represented as a linear combination of a set of Gaussian independent basis upper-triangular matrices. Efficient optimization methods are derived for both combination weights and basis matrices. Experiments on a Chinese dictation task showed that the proposed approach can significantly outperformed the direct structured precision modelling with similar number of parameters as well as full covariance modelling. © 2011 IEEE.

Comment on "Acoustic chaos in a duct with two separate sound sources" [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 110, 120-126 (2001)] (L)

In a paper published in this journal in 2001 by Dong [W. G. Dong, X. Y. Huang, and Q. L. Wo, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 110, 120-126 (2001)] it was claimed that acoustic chaos was obtained experimentally by the nonlinear interaction of two acoustic waves in a duct. In this comment a simple experimental setup and an analytical model is used to show that the dynamics of such systems corresponds to a quasiperiodic motion, and not to a chaotic one. © 2008 Acoustical Society of America.