Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design

Design work involves uncertainty that arises from, and influences, the progressive development of solutions. This paper analyses the influences of evolving uncertainty levels on the design process. We focus on uncertainties associated with choosing the values of design parameters, and do not consider in detail the issues that arise when parameters must first be identified. Aspects of uncertainty and its evolution are discussed, and a new task-based model is introduced to describe process behaviour in terms of changing uncertainty levels. The model is applied to study two process configuration problems based on aircraft wing design: one using an analytical solution and one using Monte-Carlo simulation. The applications show that modelling uncertainty levels during design can help assess management policies, such as how many concepts should be considered during design and to what level of accuracy. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

The effect of clearance on shrouded and unshrouded turbines at two levels of reaction

In this paper, the effect of seal clearance on the efficiency of a turbine with a shrouded rotor is compared with the effect of the tip clearance when the same turbine has an unshrouded rotor. The shrouded versus unshrouded comparison was undertaken for two turbine stage designs one having 50% reaction the other having 24% reaction. Measurements for a range of clearances, including very small clearances, showed three important phenomena. Firstly, as the clearance is reduced, there is a "break-even clearance" at which both the shrouded turbine and the unshrouded turbine have the same efficiency. If the clearance is reduced further, the unshrouded turbine performs better than the shrouded turbine, with the difference at zero clearance termed the "offset loss". This is contrary to the traditional assumption that both shrouded and unshrouded turbines have the same efficiency at zero clearance. The physics of the break-even clearance and the offset loss are discussed. Secondly, the use of a lower reaction had the effect of reducing the tip leakage efficiency penalty for both the shrouded and the unshrouded turbines. In order to understand the effect of reaction on the tip leakage, an analytical model was used and it was found that the tip leakage efficiency penalty should be understood as the dissipated kinetic energy rather than either the tip leakage mass flow rate or the tip leakage loss coefficient. Thirdly, it was also observed that, at a fixed flow coefficient, the fractional change in the output power with clearance was approximately twice the fractional change in efficiency with clearance. This was explained by using an analytical model. © 2010 by ASME.