Options for achieving a 50% cut in industrial carbon emissions by 2050.

Carbon emissions from industry are dominated by production of goods in steel, cement plastic, paper, and aluminum. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global carbon emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target the global flows of these materials and their associated emissions are projected to 2050 under five technical scenarios. A reference scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient reduction. The application of carbon sequestration to primary production proves to be sufficient only for cement The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, for instance through product life extension, material substitution, or "light-weighting". Reusing components shows significant potential particularly within construction. Radical process innovation may also be possible. The results show that the first two strategies, based on increasing primary production, cannot achieve the required emissions reductions, so should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to allow provision of increased material services with reduced primary production.

Industrial practice in technology planning - Implications for a useful tool catalogue for technology management

A survey on technology planning and its implications for a useful tool catalogue for technology management was conducted. The survey provided a picture of technology planning, across a broad range of company size, manufacturing type and sector. It was concluded from the findings that technology planning is an important business activity across industry sectors and company types, driven increasing competition, market requirements and regulation technology change. The process technology roadmapping was used to support technology strategy and planning and could be useful way of structuring both the use of tools in a company and a tool catalogue.

Optimizing the energy output of vertical axis wind turbines for fluctuating wind conditions

The control of a wind turbine to the mean wind speed in a gusty wind results in very poor performance. Fluctuations in wind speed with time constants shorter than the response time of a wind turbine results in operation away from optimum design conditions. The effectiveness of a turbine operating in a gusty wind is shown though the use of an unsteady performance coefficient, C e. This performance coefficient is similar in form to a power coefficient. However in order to accommodate unsteady effects, Ce is defined as a ratio of energy extracted to the total wind energy available over a set time period. The turbine's response to real wind data is modelled, in the first instance, by assuming a constant rotational speed operation. It is shown that a significant increase in energy production can be realized by demanding a Tip Speed Ratio above the steady state optimum. The constant speed model is then further extended to incorporate inertial and controller effects. Parameters dictating how well a turbine can track a demand in Tip Speed Ratio have been identified and combined, to form a non-dimensional turbine response parameter. This parameter characterizes a turbine's ability to track a demand in Tip Speed Ratio dependent on an effective gust frequency. A significant increase in energy output of 42% and 245% is illustrated through the application of this over-speed control. This is for the constant rotational speed and Tip Speed Ratio feedback models respectively. The affect of airfoil choice on energy extraction within a gusty wind has been considered. The adaptive control logic developed enables the application of airfoils demonstrating high maximum L/D values but sharp stalling characteristics to be successfully used in a VAWT design.

Developing a framework for mapping industrial emergence

The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new industries and business models. This paper presents a preliminary framework for mapping industrial emergence, based on roadmapping principles, in order to understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena. The focus at this stage is on historical examples of industrial emergence, with the preliminary framework based on observations from 20 'quick scan' maps, one of which is used to illustrate the framework. The learning from these historical cases, combined with further industrial consultation and literature review, will be used to develop practical methods for strategy and policy application. The paper concludes by summarising key learning points and further work needed to achieve these outcomes. © 2009 PICMET.

Roadmapping in industrial companies: Experiences

From its origins in the US electronics sector in the 1970s, technology roadmapping has been adapted (and adopted) widely, for many different innovation, strategy and policy applications. Communication is commonly cited as one of the key benefi ts of roadmapping, particularly in terms of the process that brings different organizational perspectives together, with the roadmap providing a common visual 'language'. There is signifi cant demand for methods that are agile, in the sense of being rapid, flexible and effective to apply, focused on strategic decisions and actions. 'Fast-start' roadmapping workshop techniques enable key stakeholders to address strategic issues efficiently using the visual structure of roadmaps to capture, discuss, prioritize, explore and communicate. This paper presents the learning from a set of five diverse applications of the fast-start approach in the Basque Country, which demonstrate the agility of the technique.

The dynamics of industrial emergence

The need to stimulate, identify and nurture new industries is a prominent challenge in advanced economies. While basic science represents a valuable source of new ideas and opportunities, it can often take decades before this science finally finds application in the market. While numerous studies have to date focused on aspects of industrial evolution, (e.g. innovation, internationalisation, new product introduction, technological lifecycles and emerging technologies), far fewer have focused on technology-based industrial emergence. It is clear that if assistance is to be provided to firms and industrial policymakers attempting to navigate industrial emergence then we need an improved understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of this phenomenon. Accordingly, this paper reviews published work from a range of disparate disciplines - evolutionary theory, social construction of technology (SCOT), complexity science, industrial dynamics and technology management - to identify these dynamics. Through this review we conceptualise industrial emergence as a co-evolutionary process in which nonlinear dynamics operate. Industrial emergence is sensitive to the initial availability of resources and the market applications, with growth dependent on the supply-demand coupling, agents' actions to reduce uncertainty and catalytic events. Through synthesizing these key dynamics we go on to propose a conceptual model for industrial emergence. © 2010 IEEE.