Value roadmapping: A structured approach for early stage technology investment decisions

Deciding to invest in early stage technologies is one of the most important tasks of technology management and arguably also the most uncertain. It assumes a particular significance in the rise of technology companies in emerging economies, which have to make appropriate investment decisions. Technology managers already have a wide range of methods and tools at their disposal, but these are mostly focussed on quantitative measures such as discounted cash flow and real options techniques. However, in the early stages of technology development there seems to be a lot of dissatisfaction with these techniques as there appears to be a lack of accuracy with respect to the underlying assumptions that these models require. In order to complement these models this paper will discuss an alternative approach that we call value road-mapping. By adapting roadmapping techniques the potential value streams of early stages technologies can be plotted and hence a clearer consensus based picture of the future potential of new technologies emerges. Roadmapping is a workshop-based process bringing together multifunctional perspectives, and supporting communication in particular between technical and commercial groups. The study is work in progress and is based on a growing number of cases. (c) 2006 PICMET.

Impedance control and internal model use during the initial stage of adaptation to novel dynamics in humans.

This study investigated the neuromuscular mechanisms underlying the initial stage of adaptation to novel dynamics. A destabilizing velocity-dependent force field (VF) was introduced for sets of three consecutive trials. Between sets a random number of 4-8 null field trials were interposed, where the VF was inactivated. This prevented subjects from learning the novel dynamics, making it possible to repeatedly recreate the initial adaptive response. We were able to investigate detailed changes in neural control between the first, second and third VF trials. We identified two feedforward control mechanisms, which were initiated on the second VF trial and resulted in a 50% reduction in the hand path error. Responses to disturbances encountered on the first VF trial were feedback in nature, i.e. reflexes and voluntary correction of errors. However, on the second VF trial, muscle activation patterns were modified in anticipation of the effects of the force field. Feedforward cocontraction of all muscles was used to increase the viscoelastic impedance of the arm. While stiffening the arm, subjects also exerted a lateral force to counteract the perturbing effect of the force field. These anticipatory actions indicate that the central nervous system responds rapidly to counteract hitherto unfamiliar disturbances by a combination of increased viscoelastic impedance and formation of a crude internal dynamics model.

Disentangling the Complexity of Early-Stage Technology Acquisitions

While tools have been developed to assist firms' decision making for bringing known products and components into the supply chain, fewer tools are available to guide the acquisition of earlier-stage technologies, which is a riskier proposition due to higher technological and market uncertainties. Through synthesis of literature in technology sourcing, open innovation, alliances, mergers and acquisitions, outsourcing, and technology and knowledge transfer and consultation with industry, this paper identifies critical issues that decision makers should consider before making an early-stage technology acquisition. Sixteen questions emerge to guide decision making, comprising internal, technology, and partner assessments. These questions allow a firm to disentangle the complexity of early-stage technology acquisitions and select the most appropriate targets.

A Study of Fan-Distortion Interaction Within the NASA Rotor 67 Transonic Stage

The performance of a transonic fan operating within nonuniform inlet flow remains a key concern for the design and operability of a turbofan engine. This paper applies computational methods to improve the understanding of the interaction between a transonic fan and an inlet total pressure distortion. The test case studied is the NASA rotor 67 stage operating with a total pressure distortion covering a 120-deg sector of the inlet flow field. Full-annulus, unsteady, three-dimensional CFD has been used to simulate the test rig installation and the full fan assembly operating with inlet distortion. Novel post-processing methods have been applied to extract the fan performance and features of the interaction between the fan and the nonuniform inflow. The results of the unsteady computations agree well with the measurement data. The local operating condition of the fan at different positions around the annulus has been tracked and analyzed, and this is shown to be highly dependent on the swirl and mass flow redistribution that the rotor induces ahead of it due to the incoming distortion. The upstream flow effects lead to a variation in work input that determines the distortion pattern seen downstream of the fan stage. In addition, the unsteady computations also reveal more complex flow features downstream of the fan stage, which arise due to the three dimensionality of the flow and unsteadiness. © 2012 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Technology confidence in early stage development of medical devices

Innovation is a critical factor in ensuring commercial success within the area of medical technology. Biotechnology and Healthcare developments require huge financial and resource investment, in-depth research and clinical trials. Consequently, these developments involve a complex multidisciplinary structure, which is inherently full of risks and uncertainty. In this context, early technology assessment and 'proof of concept' is often sporadic and unstructured. Existing methodologies for managing the feasibility stage of medical device development are predominantly suited to the later phases of development and favour detail in optimisation, validation and regulatory approval. During these early phases, feasibility studies are normally conducted to establish whether technology is potentially viable. However, it is not clear how this technology viability is currently measured. This paper aims to redress this gap through the development of a technology confidence scale, as appropriate explicitly to the feasibility phase of medical device design. These guidelines were developed from analysis of three recent innovation studies within the medical device industry.

HTGR fuel element depletion benchmark: Stage three results

Recently, a new numerical benchmark exercise for High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) fuel depletion was defined. The purpose of this benchmark is to provide a comparison basis for different codes and methods applied to the burnup analysis of HTGRs. The benchmark specifications include three different models: (1) an infinite lattice of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles, (2) an infinite lattice of fuel pebbles, and (3) a prismatic fuel including fuel and coolant channels. In this paper, we present the results of the third stage of the benchmark obtained with MCNP based depletion code BGCore and deterministic lattice code HELIOS 1.9. The depletion calculations were performed for three-dimensional model of prismatic fuel with explicitly described TRISO particles as well as for two-dimensional model, in which double heterogeneity of the TRISO particles was eliminated using reactivity equivalent physical transformation (RPT). Generally, good agreement in the results of the calculations obtained using different methods and codes was observed.