Viewing the future

As many industrial organizations have learned to apply roadmapping successfully, they have also learned that it is "roadmapping" rather than "the roadmap" that generates value. This two-part special report has focused primarily on product and technology roadmapping in industry. The first part (RTM, March-April 2003, pp. 26-59) examined the workings of the process at Lucent Technologies, Rockwell Automation, the pharmaceutical/biotechnology industry, and United Kingdom-based Domino Printing Sciences. This second part examines roadmapping in the UK, Motorola, General Motors, the services sector, and in cases that demand major investment decisions under conditions of volatility.

A practical demonstration of scalable, parallel mesh generation

Cambridge Flow Solutions Ltd, Compass House, Vision Park, Cambridge, CB4 9AD, UK Real-world simulation challenges are getting bigger: virtual aero-engines with multistage blade rows coupled with their secondary air systems & with fully featured geometry; environmental flows at meta-scales over resolved cities; synthetic battlefields. It is clear that the future of simulation is scalable, end-to-end parallelism. To address these challenges we have reported in a sequence of papers a series of inherently parallel building blocks based on the integration of a Level Set based geometry kernel with an octree-based cut-Cartesian mesh generator, RANS flow solver, post-processing and geometry management & editing. The cut-cells which characterize the approach are eliminated by exporting a body-conformal mesh driven by the underpinning Level Set and managed by mesh quality optimization algorithms; this permits third party flow solvers to be deployed. This paper continues this sequence by reporting & demonstrating two main novelties: variable depth volume mesh refinement enabling variable surface mesh refinement and a radical rework of the mesh generation into a bottom-up system based on Space Filling Curves. Also reported are the associated extensions to body-conformal mesh export. Everything is implemented in a scalable, parallel manner. As a practical demonstration, meshes of guaranteed quality are generated for a fully resolved, generic aircraft carrier geometry, a cooled disc brake assembly and a B747 in landing configuration. Copyright © 2009 by W.N.Dawes.

Future directions in modelling

An improved understanding of lean fuel turbulent premixed flames must play a central role in the fundamental science of these new concepts.

Energy efficiency, resilience to future climates and long-term sustainability: the role of the built environment

Just under half of all energy consumption in the UK today takes place indoors, and over a quarter within our homes. The challenges associated with energy security, climate change and sustainable consumption will be overcome or lost in existing buildings. A background analysis, and the scale of the engineering challenge for the next three to four decades, is described in this paper.

Energy efficiency, resilience to future climates and long-term sustainability: the role of the built environment.

Just under half of all energy consumption in the UK today takes place indoors, and over a quarter within our homes. The challenges associated with energy security, climate change and sustainable consumption will be overcome or lost in our existing buildings. A background analysis, and the scale of the engineering challenge for the next three to four decades, is described in this paper.

Closing the Energy Efficiency Gap: A study linking demographics with barriers to adopting energy efficiency measures in the home

This paper presents a study which linked demographic variables with barriers affecting the adoption of domestic energy efficiency measures in large UK cities. The aim was to better understand the 'Energy Efficiency Gap' and improve the effectiveness of future energy efficiency initiatives. The data for this study was collected from 198 general population interviews (1.5-10 min) carried out across multiple locations in Manchester and Cardiff. The demographic variables were statistically linked to the identified barriers using a modified chi-square test of association (first order Rao-Scott corrected to compensate for multiple response data), and the effect size was estimated with an odds-ratio test. The results revealed that strong associations exist between demographics and barriers, specifically for the following variables: sex; marital status; education level; type of dwelling; number of occupants in household; residence (rent/own); and location (Manchester/Cardiff). The results and recommendations were aimed at city policy makers, local councils, and members of the construction/retrofit industry who are all working to improve the energy efficiency of the domestic built environment. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Future-proofed energy design for dwellings: Case studies from England and application to the Code for Sustainable Homes

This paper investigates 'future-proofing' as an unexplored yet all-important aspect in the design of low-energy dwellings. It refers particularly to adopting lifecycle thinking and accommodating risks and uncertainties in the selection of fabric energy efficiency measures and low or zero-carbon technologies. Based on a conceptual framework for future-proofed design, the paper first presents results from the analysis of two 'best practice' housing developments in England; i.e., North West Cambridge in Cambridge and West Carclaze and Baal in St. Austell, Cornwall. Second, it examines the 'Energy and CO2 Emissions' part of the Code for Sustainable Homes to reveal which design criteria and assessment methods can be practically integrated into this established building certification scheme so that it can become more dynamic and future-oriented.Practical application: Future-proofed construction is promoted implicitly within the increasingly stringent building regulations; however, there is no comprehensive method to readily incorporate futures thinking into the energy design of buildings. This study has a three-fold objective of relevance to the building industry:Illuminating the two key categories of long-term impacts in buildings, which are often erroneously treated interchangeably:- The environmental impact of buildings due to their long lifecycles.- The environment's impacts on buildings due to risks and uncertainties affecting the energy consumption by at least 2050. This refers to social, technological, economic, environmental and regulatory (predictable or unknown) trends and drivers of change, such as climate uncertainty, home-working, technology readiness etc.Encouraging future-proofing from an early planning stage to reduce the likelihood of a prematurely obsolete building design.Enhancing established building energy assessment methods (certification, modelling or audit tools) by integrating a set of future-oriented criteria into their methodologies. © 2012 The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers.

A conceptual framework for future-proofing the energy performance of buildings

This paper presents a review undertaken to understand the concept of 'future-proofing' the energy performance of buildings. The long lifecycles of the building stock, the impacts of climate change and the requirements for low carbon development underline the need for long-term thinking from the early design stages. 'Future-proofing' is an emerging research agenda with currently no widely accepted definition amongst scholars and building professionals. In this paper, it refers to design processes that accommodate explicitly full lifecycle perspectives and energy trends and drivers by at least 2050, when selecting energy efficient measures and low carbon technologies. A knowledge map is introduced, which explores the key axes (or attributes) for achieving a 'future-proofed' energy design; namely, coverage of sustainability issues, lifecycle thinking, and accommodating risks and uncertainties that affect the energy consumption. It is concluded that further research is needed so that established building energy assessment methods are refined to better incorporate future-proofing. The study follows an interdisciplinary approach and is targeted at design teams with aspirations to achieve resilient and flexible low-energy buildings over the long-term. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.