Building performance simulation for the management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change

This paper reports on research that uses building performance simulation and uncertainty analysis to assess the risks that projected climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. The work takes meteorological climate change predictions as a starting point, but also takes into account developments and uncertainties in technology, occupancy, intervention and renovation, and others. Four cases are studied in depth to explore the prospects of the quantification of said climate change risks. The research concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictive assumptions on the input side.

Numerical study of soil heterogeneity effects on contaminant transport in unsaturated soil (model development and validation)

The movement of chemicals through soil to groundwater is a major cause of degradation of water resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. The study of the effects of different factors involved in transport phenomena can provide valuable information to find the best remediation approaches. Numerical models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing solute transport processes in soils and groundwater. This article presents the development of a stochastic finite element model for the simulation of contaminant transport through soils with the main focus being on the incorporation of the effects of soil heterogeneity in the model. The governing equations of contaminant transport are presented. The mathematical framework and the numerical implementation of the model are described. The comparison of the results obtained from the developed stochastic model with those obtained from a deterministic method and some experimental results shows that the stochastic model is capable of predicting the transport of solutes in unsaturated soil with higher accuracy than deterministic one. The importance of the consideration of the effects of soil heterogeneity on contaminant fate is highlighted through a sensitivity analysis regarding the variance of saturated hydraulic conductivity as an index of soil heterogeneity. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of soil conditions on uplift of underground structures in liquefied soil

In an earthquake, underground structures located in liquefiable soil deposits are susceptible to floatation following an earthquake event due to their lower unit weight relative to the surrounding saturated soil. Such uplift response of the buoyant structure is influenced by the soil it is buried in. In the case of a liquefiable soil deposit, the soil can lose its shear strength significantly in the event of an earthquake. If the soil liquefies fully, the buoyant structure can float towards the soil surface. However, a partly liquefied soil deposit retains some of its initial shear strength and resists the uplift. This paper discusses the different soil conditions and their influence on the uplift response of buoyant structures. © 2012 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Estimation of soil properties and deformations in staged constructions based on mcmc method

This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic framework to assess soil properties and model uncertainty to better predict excavation-induced deformations using field deformation data. The potential correlations between deformations at different depths are accounted for in the likelihood function needed in the Bayesian approach. The proposed approach also accounts for inclinometer measurement errors. The posterior statistics of the unknown soil properties and the model parameters are computed using the Delayed Rejection (DR) method and the Adaptive Metropolis (AM) method. As an application, the proposed framework is used to assess the unknown soil properties of multiple soil layers using deformation data at different locations and for incremental excavation stages. The developed approach can be used for the design of optimal revisions for supported excavation systems. © 2010 ASCE.