Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle

Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient) behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity. © 2012 Trotta et al.

Delayed decision-making in bistable models

Switching between two modes of operation is a common property of biological systems. In continuous-time differential equation models, this is often realised by bistability, i.e. the existence of two asymptotically stable steadystates. Several biological models are shown to exhibit delayed switching, with a pronounced transient phase, in particular for near-threshold perturbations. This study shows that this delay in switching from one mode to the other in response to a transient input is reflected in local properties of an unstable saddle point, which has a one dimensional unstable manifold with a significantly slower eigenvalue than the stable ones. Thus, the trajectories first approximatively converge to the saddle point, then linger along the saddle's unstable manifold before quickly approaching one of the stable equilibria. ©2010 IEEE.

The process of making the business case for technology: A sales and marketing perspective for technologists

Technological investment is a key driver of innovation and the evaluation of technology potential is becoming increasingly important in this context. There is a range of approaches and tools for developing an understanding of the value of technology. However the process of communicating this potential to possible customers is not well documented in terms of theory and practice and falls outside the skill set of many technologists. This paper seeks to integrate the concepts of marketing and consultative selling into making business cases for new technologies. It describes an exploratory study which results in an outline process activity model for technologists wishing to build an effective business case for securing investment internally or when selling a technology externally. Following a review of literature, we suggest that there is potential to learn from market research and consultative sales techniques, and propose a five step process. The work has been industrially validated and forms a novel foundation for further development. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Motor control is decision-making

© 2012 Elsevier Ltd. Motor behavior may be viewed as a problem of maximizing the utility of movement outcome in the face of sensory, motor and task uncertainty. Viewed in this way, and allowing for the availability of prior knowledge in the form of a probability distribution over possible states of the world, the choice of a movement plan and strategy for motor control becomes an application of statistical decision theory. This point of view has proven successful in recent years in accounting for movement under risk, inferring the loss function used in motor tasks, and explaining motor behavior in a wide variety of circumstances.

Making the deployment of pico-PV more sustainable along the value chain

Pico-PV is an excellent technology for bringing electric light to rural areas in the developing world and replacing kerosene lanterns and candles. However, as pico-PV is a comparatively new technology, relatively little is known about appropriate methods for sustainable product development and deployment. For this reason current dissemination methods are often ineffective and unsustainable. This research aims to help project developers deploy pico-PV technologies successfully and in a sustainable manner. To achieve this, a conceptual framework of key sustainability criteria along the value chain was developed and tested. The analysis revealed that the most important criteria for the sustainable deployment of pico-PV systems are: (a) easy and safe operation of the product; (b) that a system for product return is established; (c) the retailer understands the target market and (d) the end-user is aware of the product's existence and its benefits. This research reveals that criteria (b) and (c) are of greatest concern. In light of these findings, the authors propose to focus on the following five factors; namely: (a) raising awareness for certification and creating market reassurance; (b) introducing support mechanisms to facilitate local repair; (c) using existing supply channels and establishing in-country (dis)assembly; (d) introducing financial support mechanisms at product supply stages and; (e) undertaking marketing campaigns. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision making at the front end of innovation: The hidden influence of knowledge and decision criteria

Decision making at the front end of innovation is critical for the success of companies. This paper presents a method, called decision making based on knowledge (DeBK), which was created to analyze the decision-making process at the front end. The method evaluates the knowledge of project information and the importance of decision criteria, compiling a measure that indicates whether decisions are founded on available knowledge and what criteria are in fact being considered to delineate them. The potential contribution of DeBK is corroborated through two projects that faced decision-making issues at the front end of innovation. © 2014 RADMA and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Motor effort alters changes of mind in sensorimotor decision making.

After committing to an action, a decision-maker can change their mind to revise the action. Such changes of mind can even occur when the stream of information that led to the action is curtailed at movement onset. This is explained by the time delays in sensory processing and motor planning which lead to a component at the end of the sensory stream that can only be processed after initiation. Such post-initiation processing can explain the pattern of changes of mind by asserting an accumulation of additional evidence to a criterion level, termed change-of-mind bound. Here we test the hypothesis that physical effort associated with the movement required to change one's mind affects the level of the change-of-mind bound and the time for post-initiation deliberation. We varied the effort required to change from one choice target to another in a reaching movement by varying the geometry of the choice targets or by applying a force field between the targets. We show that there is a reduction in the frequency of change of mind when the separation of the choice targets would require a larger excursion of the hand from the initial to the opposite choice. The reduction is best explained by an increase in the evidence required for changes of mind and a reduced time period of integration after the initial decision. Thus the criteria to revise an initial choice is sensitive to energetic costs.

Delayed-decision making in noisy bistable switches

Bistable switches are frequently encountered in biological systems. Typically, a bistable switch models a binary decision where each decision corresponds to one of the two stable equilibria. Recently, we showed that the global decision-making process in bistable switches strongly depends on a particular equilibrium point of these systems, their saddle point. In particular, we showed that a saddle point with a time-scale separation between its attractive and repulsive directions can delay the decision-making process. In this paper, we study the effects of white Gaussian noise on this mechanism of delayed decision-making induced by the saddle point. Results show that the mean decision-time strongly depends on the balance between the initial distance to the separatrix and the noise strength. © IFAC.