Improving productivity - Opening the black box

Hourly productivity levels in the UK still remain behind those in some competitor countries. The government devotes much policy attention to enhancing productivity and continues to emphasise its five drivers - investment, innovation, skills, enterprise, and competition. This article argues that it is investment broadly defined that is the key to sustained productivity improvement. The emphasis should be on improving productivity simultaneously with improving the quality of production. Only thus will the gains be widely shared. In achieving these aims there are two prerequisites for policy-makers. The first is to ensure better coordination of policy than appears to be currently achieved by the present departmental structures in Whitehall. The second is to recognize fully the long and complex chain of causation that can be triggered by pulling on one policy lever. Such complexity can only be fully understood by more research on what actually goes on inside the black box of the organization. © 2006 Oxford University Press.

Thermal-creep analysis of concrete bridges

The creep effects on sequentially built bridges are analysed by the theory of thermal creep. Two types of analysis are used: time dependent and steady state. The traditional uniform creep analysis is also introduced briefly. Both simplified and parabolic normalising creep-temperature functions are used in the analysis for comparison. Numerical examples are presented, calculated by a computer program based on the theory of thermal creep and using the displacement method. It is concluded that different assumptions within thermal creep can lead to very different results when compared with uniform creep analysis. The steady-state analysis of monolithically built structures can serve as a limit to evaluate total creep effects for both monolithically and sequentially built structures. The importance of the correct selection of the normalising creep-temperature function is demonstrated.

Redundancy quantification in the safety assessment of existing concrete beam-and-slab bridges

In current practice the strength evaluation of a bridge system is typically based on firstly using elastic analysis to determine the distribution of load effects in the elements and then checking the ultimate section capacity of those elements. Ductility of the components in most bridge structures permits local yield and subsequent redistribution of the applied loads from the most heavily loaded elements. As a result a bridge can continue to carry additional loading even after one member has yielded, which has conventionally been adopted as the "failure criterion" in bridge strength evaluation. This means that a bridge with inherent redundancy has additional reserves of strength such that the failure of one element does not result in the failure of the complete system. For these bridges warning signs will show up and measures can be undertaken before the ultimate collapse is happening. This paper proposes a rational methodology for calculating the ultimate system strength and including in bridge evaluation the warning level due to redundancy. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Clustering user data for user modelling in the GUIDE multi-modal set-top box

Chapter 20 Clustering User Data for User Modelling in the GUIDE Multi-modal Set- top Box PM Langdon and P. Biswas 20.1 ... It utilises advanced user modelling and simulation in conjunction with a single layer interface that permits a ...

The unidirectional emptying box

A theoretical description of the turbulent mixing within and the draining of a dense fluid layer from a box connected to a uniform density, quiescent environment through openings in the top and the base of the box is presented in this paper. This is an extension of the draining model developed by Linden et al. (Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech. vol. 31, 1990, pp. 201-238) and includes terms that describe localized mixing within the emptying box at the density interface. Mixing is induced by a turbulent flow of replacement fluid into the box and as a consequence we predict, and observe in complementary experiments, the development of a three-layer stratification. Based on the data collated from previous researchers, three distinct formulations for entrainment fluxes across density interfaces are used to account for this localized mixing. The model was then solved numerically for the three mixing formulations. Analytical solutions were developed for one formulation directly and for a second on assuming that localized mixing is relatively weak though still significant in redistributing buoyancy on the timescale of the draining process. Comparisons between our theoretical predictions and the experimental data, which we have collected on the developing layer depths and their densities show good agreement. The differences in predictions between the three mixing formulations suggest that the normalized flux turbulently entrained across a density interface tends to a constant value for large values of a Froude number FrT, based on conditions of the inflow through the top of the box, and scales as the cube of FrT for small values of FrT. The upper limit on the rate of entrainment into the mixed layer results in a minimum time (tD) to remove the original dense layer. Using our analytical solutions, we bound this time and show that 0.2tE ≈tD tE, i.e. the original dense layer may be depleted up to five times more rapidly than when there is no internal mixing and the box empties in a time tE. © 2010 Cambridge University Press.

Parallels between wind and crowd loading of bridges

Parallels between the dynamic response of flexible bridges under the action of wind and under the forces induced by crowds allow each field to inform the other.Wind-induced behaviour has been traditionally classified into categories such as flutter, galloping, vortex-induced vibration and buffeting. However, computational advances such as the vortex particle method have led to a more general picture where effects may occur simultaneously and interact, such that the simple semantic demarcations break down. Similarly, the modelling of individual pedestrians has progressed the understanding of human–structure interaction, particularly for large amplitude lateral oscillations under crowd loading. In this paper, guided by the interaction of flutter and vortexinduced vibration in wind engineering, a framework is presented, which allows various human–structure interaction effects to coexist and interact, thereby providing a possible synthesis of previously disparate experimental and theoretical results.

Predictive entropy search for efficient global optimization of black-box functions

We propose a novel information-theoretic approach for Bayesian optimization called Predictive Entropy Search (PES). At each iteration, PES selects the next evaluation point that maximizes the expected information gained with respect to the global maximum. PES codifies this intractable acquisition function in terms of the expected reduction in the differential entropy of the predictive distribution. This reformulation allows PES to obtain approximations that are both more accurate and efficient than other alternatives such as Entropy Search (ES). Furthermore, PES can easily perform a fully Bayesian treatment of the model hyperparameters while ES cannot. We evaluate PES in both synthetic and real-world applications, including optimization problems in machine learning, finance, biotechnology, and robotics. We show that the increased accuracy of PES leads to significant gains in optimization performance.