Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

Projective Limit Random Probabilities on Polish Spaces

A pivotal problem in Bayesian nonparametrics is the construction of prior distributions on the space M(V) of probability measures on a given domain V. In principle, such distributions on the infinite-dimensional space M(V) can be constructed from their finite-dimensional marginals---the most prominent example being the construction of the Dirichlet process from finite-dimensional Dirichlet distributions. This approach is both intuitive and applicable to the construction of arbitrary distributions on M(V), but also hamstrung by a number of technical difficulties. We show how these difficulties can be resolved if the domain V is a Polish topological space, and give a representation theorem directly applicable to the construction of any probability distribution on M(V) whose first moment measure is well-defined. The proof draws on a projective limit theorem of Bochner, and on properties of set functions on Polish spaces to establish countable additivity of the resulting random probabilities.

The influence of repeated loading, residual stresses and shakedown on the behaviour of tribological contacts

Most tribological pairs carry their service load not just once but for a very large number of repeated cycles. During the early stages of this life, protective residual stresses may be developed in the near surface layers which enable loads which are of sufficient magnitude to cause initial plastic deformation to be accommodated purely elastically in the longer term. This is an example of the phenomenon of 'shakedown' and when its effects are incorporated into the design and operation schedule of machine components this process can lead to significant increases in specific loading duties or improvements in material utilization. Although the underlying principles can be demonstrated by reference to relatively simple stress systems, when a moving Hertzian pressure distribution in considered, which is the form of loading applicable to many contact problems, the situation is more complex. In the absence of exact solutions, bounding theorems, adopted from the theory of plasticity, can be used to generate appropriate load or shakedown limits so that shakedown maps can be drawn which delineate the boundaries between potentially safe and unsafe operating conditions. When the operating point of the contact lies outside the shakedown limit there will be an increment of plastic strain with each application of the load - these can accumulate leading eventually to either component failure or the loss of material by wear. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.