Linking energy policy, electricity generation and transmission using strong sustainability and co-optimization

The design of a sustainable electricity generation and transmission system is based on the established science of anthropogenic climate change and the realization that depending on imported fossil-fuels is becoming a measure of energy insecurity of supply. A model is proposed which integrates generation fuel mix composition, assignment of plants and optimized power flow, using Portugal as a case study. The result of this co-optimized approach is an overall set of generator types/fuels which increases the diversity of Portuguese electricity supply, lowers its dependency on imported fuels by 14.62% and moves the country towards meeting its regional and international obligations of 31% energy from renewables by 2020 and a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, respectively. The quantity and composition of power generation at each bus is specified, with particular focus on quantifying the amount of distributed generation. Based on other works, the resultant, overall distributed capacity penetration of 19.02% of total installed generation is expected to yield positive network benefits. Thus, the model demonstrates that national energy policy and technical deployment can be linked through sustainability and, moreover, that the respective goals may be mutually achieved via holistic, integrated design. ©2009 IEEE.

Projective Limit Random Probabilities on Polish Spaces

A pivotal problem in Bayesian nonparametrics is the construction of prior distributions on the space M(V) of probability measures on a given domain V. In principle, such distributions on the infinite-dimensional space M(V) can be constructed from their finite-dimensional marginals---the most prominent example being the construction of the Dirichlet process from finite-dimensional Dirichlet distributions. This approach is both intuitive and applicable to the construction of arbitrary distributions on M(V), but also hamstrung by a number of technical difficulties. We show how these difficulties can be resolved if the domain V is a Polish topological space, and give a representation theorem directly applicable to the construction of any probability distribution on M(V) whose first moment measure is well-defined. The proof draws on a projective limit theorem of Bochner, and on properties of set functions on Polish spaces to establish countable additivity of the resulting random probabilities.

Gas properties as a limit to gas turbine performance

Although increasing the turbine inlet temperature has traditionally proved the surest way to increase cycle efficiency, recent work suggests that the performance of future gas turbines may be limited by increased cooling flows and losses. Another limiting scenario concerns the effect on cycle performance of real gas properties at high temperatures. Cycle calculations of uncooled gas turbines show that when gas properties are modelled accurately, the variation of cycle efficiency with turbine inlet temperature at constant pressure ratio exhibits a maximum at temperatures well below the stoichiometric limit. Furthermore, the temperature at the maximum decreases with increasing compressor and turbine polytropic efficiency. This behaviour is examined in the context of a two-component model of the working fluid. The dominant influences come from the change of composition of the combustion products with varying air/fuel ratio (particularly the contribution from the water vapour) together with the temperature variation of the specific heat capacity of air. There are implications for future industrial development programmes, particularly in the context of advanced mixed gas-steam cycles.