65 resultados para Mincer-Zarnowitz regression
Resumo:
We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates input dependent signal and noise correlations between multiple response variables, input dependent length-scales and amplitudes, and heavy-tailed predictive distributions. We derive both efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes inference procedures for this model. We apply GPRN as a multiple output regression and multivariate volatility model, demonstrating substantially improved performance over eight popular multiple output (multi-task) Gaussian process models and three multivariate volatility models on benchmark datasets, including a 1000 dimensional gene expression dataset.
Resumo:
Despite its importance, choosing the structural form of the kernel in nonparametric regression remains a black art. We define a space of kernel structures which are built compositionally by adding and multiplying a small number of base kernels. We present a method for searching over this space of structures which mirrors the scientific discovery process. The learned structures can often decompose functions into interpretable components and enable long-range extrapolation on time-series datasets. Our structure search method outperforms many widely used kernels and kernel combination methods on a variety of prediction tasks.
Resumo:
We develop a convex relaxation of maximum a posteriori estimation of a mixture of regression models. Although our relaxation involves a semidefinite matrix variable, we reformulate the problem to eliminate the need for general semidefinite programming. In particular, we provide two reformulations that admit fast algorithms. The first is a max-min spectral reformulation exploiting quasi-Newton descent. The second is a min-min reformulation consisting of fast alternating steps of closed-form updates. We evaluate the methods against Expectation-Maximization in a real problem of motion segmentation from video data.
Resumo:
In this paper, we tackle the problem of learning a linear regression model whose parameter is a fixed-rank matrix. We study the Riemannian manifold geometry of the set of fixed-rank matrices and develop efficient line-search algorithms. The proposed algorithms have many applications, scale to high-dimensional problems, enjoy local convergence properties and confer a geometric basis to recent contributions on learning fixed-rank matrices. Numerical experiments on benchmarks suggest that the proposed algorithms compete with the state-of-the-art, and that manifold optimization offers a versatile framework for the design of rank-constrained machine learning algorithms. Copyright 2011 by the author(s)/owner(s).
Resumo:
The paper addresses the problem of learning a regression model parameterized by a fixed-rank positive semidefinite matrix. The focus is on the nonlinear nature of the search space and on scalability to high-dimensional problems. The mathematical developments rely on the theory of gradient descent algorithms adapted to the Riemannian geometry that underlies the set of fixedrank positive semidefinite matrices. In contrast with previous contributions in the literature, no restrictions are imposed on the range space of the learned matrix. The resulting algorithms maintain a linear complexity in the problem size and enjoy important invariance properties. We apply the proposed algorithms to the problem of learning a distance function parameterized by a positive semidefinite matrix. Good performance is observed on classical benchmarks. © 2011 Gilles Meyer, Silvere Bonnabel and Rodolphe Sepulchre.