Redundancy quantification in the safety assessment of existing concrete beam-and-slab bridges

In current practice the strength evaluation of a bridge system is typically based on firstly using elastic analysis to determine the distribution of load effects in the elements and then checking the ultimate section capacity of those elements. Ductility of the components in most bridge structures permits local yield and subsequent redistribution of the applied loads from the most heavily loaded elements. As a result a bridge can continue to carry additional loading even after one member has yielded, which has conventionally been adopted as the "failure criterion" in bridge strength evaluation. This means that a bridge with inherent redundancy has additional reserves of strength such that the failure of one element does not result in the failure of the complete system. For these bridges warning signs will show up and measures can be undertaken before the ultimate collapse is happening. This paper proposes a rational methodology for calculating the ultimate system strength and including in bridge evaluation the warning level due to redundancy. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Stress on the ward: evidence of safety tipping points in hospitals

Do hospitals experience safety tipping points as utilization increases, and if so, what are the implications for hospital operations management? We argue that safety tipping points occur when managerial escalation policies are exhausted and workload variability buffers are depleted. Front-line clinical staff is forced to ration resources and, at the same time, becomes more error prone as a result of elevated stress hormone levels. We confirm the existence of safety tipping points for in-hospital mortality using the discharge records of 82,280 patients across six high-mortality-risk conditions from 256 clinical departments of 83 German hospitals. Focusing on survival during the first seven days following admission, we estimate a mortality tipping point at an occupancy level of 92.5%. Among the 17% of patients in our sample who experienced occupancy above the tipping point during the first seven days of their hospital stay, high occupancy accounted for one in seven deaths. The existence of a safety tipping point has important implications for hospital management. First, flexible capacity expansion is more cost-effective for safety improvement than rigid capacity, because it will only be used when occupancy reaches the tipping point. In the context of our sample, flexible staffing saves more than 40% of the cost of a fully staffed capacity expansion, while achieving the same reduction in mortality. Second, reducing the variability of demand by pooling capacity in hospital clusters can greatly increase safety in a hospital system, because it reduces the likelihood that a patient will experience occupancy levels beyond the tipping point. Pooling the capacity of nearby hospitals in our sample reduces the number of deaths due to high occupancy by 34%.

Safety implications of reactivity variations in fast thorium ADSRs

Nuclear power generation offers a reliable, low-impact and large-scale alternative to fossil fuels. However, concerns exist over the safety and sustainability of this method of power production, and it remains unpopular with some governments and pressure groups throughout the world. Fast thorium fuelled accelerator-driven sub-critical reactors (ADSRs) offer a possible route to providing further re-assurance regarding these concerns on account of their properties of enhanced safety through sub-critical operation combined with reduced actinide waste production from the thorium fuel source. The appropriate sub-critical margin at which these reactors should operate is the subject of continued debate. Commercial interests favour a small sub-critical margin in order to minimise the size of the accelerator needed for a given power output, whilst enhanced safety would be better satisfied through larger sub-critical margins to further minimise the possibility of a criticality excursion. Against this background, this paper examines some of the issues affecting reactor safety inherent within thorium fuel sources resulting from the essential Th90232→Th90233→Pa91233→U92233 breeding chain. Differences in the decay half-lives and fission and capture cross-sections of 233Pa and 233U can result in significant changes in the reactivity of the fuel following changes in the reactor power. Reactor operation is represented using a homogeneous lumped fast reactor model that can simulate the evolution of actinides and reactivity variations to first-order accuracy. The reactivity of the fuel is shown to increase significantly following a loss of power to the accelerator. Where the sub-critical operating margins are small this can result in a criticality excursion unless some form of additional intervention is made, for example through the insertion of control rods. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.