Probability-Matching Predictors for Extreme Extremes

A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the three-parameter {\mu, \sigma, \xi} Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The predictor is designed to provide matching probability exactly for the GPD in both the extreme heavy-tailed limit and the extreme bounded-tail limit, whilst giving a good approximation to probability matching at all intermediate values of the tail parameter \xi. The predictor is valid even for small sample sizes N, even as small as N = 3. The main purpose of this paper is to present the somewhat lengthy derivations which draw heavily on the theory of hypergeometric functions, particularly the Lauricella functions. Whilst the construction is inspired by the Bayesian approach to the prediction problem, it considers the case of vague prior information about both parameters and model, and all derivations are undertaken using sampling theory.

Multi-objective optimisation of horizontal axis wind turbine structure and energy production using aerofoil and blade properties as design variables

The design of wind turbine blades is a true multi-objective engineering task. The aerodynamic effectiveness of the turbine needs to be balanced with the system loads introduced by the rotor. Moreover the problem is not dependent on a single geometric property, but besides other parameters on a combination of aerofoil family and various blade functions. The aim of this paper is therefore to present a tool which can help designers to get a deeper insight into the complexity of the design space and to find a blade design which is likely to have a low cost of energy. For the research we use a Computational Blade Optimisation and Load Deflation Tool (CoBOLDT) to investigate the three extreme point designs obtained from a multi-objective optimisation of turbine thrust, annual energy production as well as mass for a horizontal axis wind turbine blade. The optimisation algorithm utilised is based on Multi-Objective Tabu Search which constitutes the core of CoBOLDT. The methodology is capable to parametrise the spanning aerofoils with two-dimensional Free Form Deformation and blade functions with two tangentially connected cubic splines. After geometry generation we use a panel code to create aerofoil polars and a stationary Blade Element Momentum code to evaluate turbine performance. Finally, the obtained loads are fed into a structural layout module to estimate the mass and stiffness of the current blade by means of a fully stressed design. For the presented test case we chose post optimisation analysis with parallel coordinates to reveal geometrical features of the extreme point designs and to select a compromise design from the Pareto set. The research revealed that a blade with a feasible laminate layout can be obtained, that can increase the energy capture and lower steady state systems loads. The reduced aerofoil camber and an increased L/. D-ratio could be identified as the main drivers. This statement could not be made with other tools of the research community before. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Centrifuge testing of monopile in clay under monotonic loads

The monopile is at present the most widely applied foundation concept for offshore wind turbines. Monopiles are designed utilising the well-established p-y method. Despite being well-established, there are multiple issues and limitations regarding its use. Investigation into the lateral behaviour of monopiles was carried out by performing monotonic and cyclic lateral load tests on an aluminium model monopile in the centrifuge. The monotonic responses and the behaviour of the monopile are described. Differences between the experimental and DNV design p-y curves and their implications are discussed. Efforts to characterise the shear force acting at the pile toe are also discussed. The results highlight the possible deficiencies of utilising the conventional DNV design p-y curves to design monopiles to resist cyclic lateral loads and the importance of research into the cyclic loading behaviour of monopiles to better improve their design to resist long-term cyclic loads. © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group.

Analytical model and experimental validation of friction laws for composites under low loads

In order to account for interfacial friction of composite materials, an analytical model based on contact geometry and local friction is proposed. A contact area includes several types of microcontacts depending on reinforcement materials and their shape. A proportion between these areas is defined by in-plane contact geometry. The model applied to a fibre-reinforced composite results in the dependence of friction on surface fibre fraction and local friction coefficients. To validate this analytical model, an experimental study on carbon fibrereinforced epoxy composites under low normal pressure was performed. The effects of fibre volume fraction and fibre orientation were studied, discussed and compared with analytical model results. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012.

Static analysis of Euler-Bernoulli beams with multiple unilateral cracks under combined axial and transverse loads

The paper deals with the static analysis of pre-damaged Euler-Bernoulli beams with any number of unilateral cracks and subjected to tensile or compression forces combined with arbitrary transverse loads. The mathematical representation of cracks with a bilateral behaviour (i.e. always open) via Dirac delta functions is extended by introducing a convenient switching variable, which allows each crack to be open or closed depending on the sign of the axial strain at the crack centre. The proposed model leads to analytical solutions, which depend on four integration constants (to be computed by enforcing the boundary conditions) along with the Boolean switching variables associated with the cracks (whose role is to turn on and off the additional flexibility due to the presence of the cracks). An efficient computational procedure is also presented and numerically validated. For this purpose, the proposed approach is applied to two pre-damaged beams, with different damage and loading conditions, and the results so obtained are compared against those given by a standard finite element code (in which the correct opening of the cracks is pre-assigned), always showing a perfect agreement. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.