Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability

We quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to support energy policy. Empirical review shows that early adopters are heterogeneous motivated by financial benefits, environmental appeal, new technology, and vehicle reliability. A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters. For early adopters full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are competitive but unable to surpass diesels or hybrids due to purchase price premium and lack of charging availability. For mass adoption, simulations indicate that if the purchase price premium of a BEV closes to within 20% of an in-class internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, combined with a 60% increase in refuelling availability relative to the incumbent system, BEVs become competitive. But this depends on a mass market that values the fuel economy and CO2 reduction benefits associated with BEVs. We also find that the largest influence on early adoption is financial benefit rather than pro-environmental behaviour suggesting that AFVs should be marketed by appealing to economic benefits combined with pro-environmental behaviour to motivate adoption. Monte Carlo simulations combined with scenarios can give insight into diffusion dynamics for other energy demand-side technologies. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Lymph Node Colonization Dynamics after Oral Salmonella Typhimurium Infection in Mice

An understanding of how pathogens colonize their hosts is crucial for the rational design of vaccines or therapy. While the molecular factors facilitating the invasion and systemic infection by pathogens are a central focus of research in microbiology, the population biological aspects of colonization are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated the early colonization dynamics of Salmonella enterica subspecies 1 serovar Typhimurium (S. Tm) in the streptomycin mouse model for diarrhea. We focused on the first step on the way to systemic infection - the colonization of the cecal lymph node (cLN) from the gut - and studied roles of inflammation, dendritic cells and innate immune effectors in the colonization process. To this end, we inoculated mice with mixtures of seven wild type isogenic tagged strains (WITS) of S. Tm. The experimental data were analyzed with a newly developed mathematical model describing the stochastic immigration, replication and clearance of bacteria in the cLN. We estimated that in the beginning of infection only 300 bacterial cells arrive in the cLN per day. We further found that inflammation decreases the net replication rate in the cLN by 23%. In ccr7-/- mice, in which dendritic cell movement is impaired, the bacterial migration rate was reduced 10-fold. In contrast, cybb-/- mice that cannot generate toxic reactive oxygen species displayed a 4-fold higher migration rate from gut to cLN than wild type mice. Thus, combining infections with mixed inocula of barcoded strains and mathematical analysis represents a powerful method for disentangling immigration into the cLN from replication in this compartment. The estimated parameters provide an important baseline to assess and predict the efficacy of interventions. © 2013 Kaiser et al.

Dynamics of spread of Salmonella enterica in the systemic compartment.

Traditional microbiological and immunological tools, combined with modern imaging, and molecular and mathematical approaches, have revealed the dispersive nature of Salmonella infections. Bacterial escape from infected cells, spread in the tissues and attempts to restrain this process by the host give rise to fascinating scenarios that underpin the pathogenesis of salmonelloses.

A simplified mathematical approach for modelling stack ventilation in multi-compartment buildings

A simple mathematical model of stack ventilation flows in multi-compartment buildings is developed with a view to providing an intuitive understanding of the physical processes governing the movement of air and heat through naturally ventilated buildings. Rules of thumb for preliminary design can be ascertained from a qualitative examination of the governing equations of flow, which elucidate the relationships between 'core' variables - flow rates, air temperatures, heat inputs and building geometry. The model is applied to an example three-storey office building with an inlet plenum and atrium. An examination of the governing equations of flow is used to predict the behaviour of steady flows and to provide a number of preliminary design suggestions. It is shown that control of ventilation flows must be shared between all ventilation openings within the building in order to minimise the disparity in flow rates between storeys, and ensure adequate fresh air supply rates for all occupants. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Dynamics of spread of Salmonella enterica in the systemic compartment

Traditional microbiological and immunological tools, combined with modern imaging, and molecular and mathematical approaches, have revealed the dispersive nature of Salmonella infections. Bacterial escape from infected cells, spread in the tissues and attempts to restrain this process by the host give rise to fascinating scenarios that underpin the pathogenesis of salmonelloses. © 2013 Institut Pasteur.

Stakeholder engagement in early stage product-service system development for healthcare informatics

This paper presents the findings from four case studies on stakeholder engagement in new health information and communication technology (ICT) product-service system (PSS) development. The degree of connectivity between the new health ICT PSS and its intended operating environment has emerged to be an important contextual factor that may impact the decision of stakeholder engagement in the early stage development process. Along with the proposition of a four-level framework to guide stakeholder identification for new PSS development, three stakeholder engagement propositions that are based on the degree of connectivity are developed. Analysis has shown that there can be two types of connectivity: data and process. Moreover, each connectivity type can be characterized by how much the new PSS is connected with its environment: independent if there is no linkage, linked if it interfaces with, or incorporated if it is embedded into. Furthermore, depending upon whether and to what extent the PSS has data and process connectivity with its intended operating environment, the stakeholder engagement needs in early stage development vary. The propositions presented in this paper provide important directions for future work exploring PSS characterization and stakeholder engagement decision in early stage new PSS development in the healthcare industry. © 2013 PICMET.

Enduring Borderlands: the Marches of Ireland and Wales in the Early Modern Period

This joint chapter explores similarities and differences between two borderlands within the early modern ‘British’ state – the marches of Ireland and Wales. In some respects, the two regions were very different, most fundamentally because the Irish march remained militarised throughout the Tudor period, while Welsh society was markedly more peaceful. However, there was also much in common. In the later middle ages both marches were frontiers between the expanding Anglo-Normans and native Celtic society. The notion that the march separated ‘civility’ from ‘savagery’ was an enduring one: despite the efforts of the Tudors to impose centralisation and uniformity throughout its territories, there remained institutions, structures of power, and mentalities which ensured that both sets of marches were still in existence by the end of the 16th century. This chapter explores the reasons for the endurance of these borderlands, and indicates how political reforms of the 16th century caused the perception – and sometimes the very location – of the marches to alter.