Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Gain-switched dynamics of tapered waveguide bow-tie lasers

The use of tapered waveguide lasers and amplifiers for enhanced picosecond pulse generation has led to order-of-magnitude peak power and pulse energy improvements. Monolithic pulse generation schemes have so far relied on a double-tapered bow-tie structure. The modeling of tapered lasers has so far been limited to steady-state operation or has lacked experimental comparison. This paper considers both experimentally and theoretically the gain-switched performance of bow-tie lasers of various taper angles. The role of transverse-mode spatial hole burning in tapered waveguide lasers is thereby investigated.

The dynamics of industrial emergence

The need to stimulate, identify and nurture new industries is a prominent challenge in advanced economies. While basic science represents a valuable source of new ideas and opportunities, it can often take decades before this science finally finds application in the market. While numerous studies have to date focused on aspects of industrial evolution, (e.g. innovation, internationalisation, new product introduction, technological lifecycles and emerging technologies), far fewer have focused on technology-based industrial emergence. It is clear that if assistance is to be provided to firms and industrial policymakers attempting to navigate industrial emergence then we need an improved understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of this phenomenon. Accordingly, this paper reviews published work from a range of disparate disciplines - evolutionary theory, social construction of technology (SCOT), complexity science, industrial dynamics and technology management - to identify these dynamics. Through this review we conceptualise industrial emergence as a co-evolutionary process in which nonlinear dynamics operate. Industrial emergence is sensitive to the initial availability of resources and the market applications, with growth dependent on the supply-demand coupling, agents' actions to reduce uncertainty and catalytic events. Through synthesizing these key dynamics we go on to propose a conceptual model for industrial emergence. © 2010 IEEE.

Dynamics of in-plane arch rocking: An energy approach

This study employs an analytical model to describe the rocking response of a masonry arch to in-plane seismic loading. Through evaluation of the rate of energy input to the system, the model reveals the ground motions that cause maximum rocking amplification. An experimental investigation of small-scale masonry arches subjected to past earthquake time histories is used to evaluate the analytical model and to explore arch rocking behaviour. The results demonstrate that rocking amplification can occur, but is highly sensitive to slight variations in the ground motion. Thus, the accuracy to which the arch response can be predicted is brought into perspective. The concept that the primary impulse of an expected ground motion is fundamentally important in predicting arch collapse is evaluated in light of the developed energy approach. Finally, a statistical method is proposed for predicting the probability of arch collapse during seismic loading.

Learning the dynamics of the external world: Brain inspired learning for robotic applications

Humans have exceptional abilities to learn new skills, manipulate tools and objects, and interact with our environment. In order to be successful at these tasks, our brain has become exceptionally well adapted to learning to deal not only with the complex dynamics of our own limbs but also with novel dynamics in the external world. While learning of these dynamics includes learning the complex time-varying forces at the end of limbs through the updating of internal models, it must also include learning the appropriate mechanical impedance in order to stabilize both the limb and any objects contacted in the environment. This article reviews the field of human learning by examining recent experimental evidence about adaptation to novel unstable dynamics and explores how this knowledge about the brain and neuro-muscular system can expand the learning capabilities of robotics and prosthetics. © 2006.