Evaluating the impacts of iteration on PD processes by transforming task network models into System Dynamics models

Iteration is unavoidable in the design process and should be incorporated when planning and managing projects in order to minimize surprises and reduce schedule distortions. However, planning and managing iteration is challenging because the relationships between its causes and effects are complex. Most approaches which use mathematical models to analyze the impact of iteration on the design process focus on a relatively small number of its causes and effects. Therefore, insights derived from these analytical models may not be robust under a broader consideration of potential influencing factors. In this article, we synthesize an explanatory framework which describes the network of causes and effects of iteration identified from the literature, and introduce an analytic approach which combines a task network modeling approach with System Dynamics simulation. Our approach models the network of causes and effects of iteration alongside the process architecture which is required to analyze the impact of iteration on design process performance. We show how this allows managers to assess the impact of changes to process architecture and to management levers which influence iterative behavior, accounting for the fact that these changes can occur simultaneously and can accumulate in non-linear ways. We also discuss how the insights resulting from this analysis can be visualized for easier consumption by project participants not familiar with simulation methods. Copyright © 2010 by ASME.

A backward-simulation based Rao-Blackwellized particle smoother for conditionally linear Gaussian models

In this article, we develop a new Rao-Blackwellized Monte Carlo smoothing algorithm for conditionally linear Gaussian models. The algorithm is based on the forward-filtering backward-simulation Monte Carlo smoother concept and performs the backward simulation directly in the marginal space of the non-Gaussian state component while treating the linear part analytically. Unlike the previously proposed backward-simulation based Rao-Blackwellized smoothing approaches, it does not require sampling of the Gaussian state component and is also able to overcome certain normalization problems of two-filter smoother based approaches. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated in a simulated application. © 2012 IFAC.

Linear gaussian computations for near-exact Bayesian Monte Carlo inference in skewed alpha-stable time series models

In this paper we study parameter estimation for time series with asymmetric α-stable innovations. The proposed methods use a Poisson sum series representation (PSSR) for the asymmetric α-stable noise to express the process in a conditionally Gaussian framework. That allows us to implement Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We further enhance the series representation by introducing a novel approximation of the series residual terms in which we are able to characterise the mean and variance of the approximation. Simulations illustrate the proposed framework applied to linear time series, estimating the model parameter values and model order P for an autoregressive (AR(P)) model driven by asymmetric α-stable innovations. © 2012 IEEE.

Effects of turbulent reynolds number on the performance of algebraic flame surface density models for large eddy simulation in the thin reaction zones regime: A direct numerical simulation analysis

A direct numerical simulation (DNS) database of freely propagating statistically planar turbulent premixed flames with a range of different turbulent Reynolds numbers has been used to assess the performance of algebraic flame surface density (FSD) models based on a fractal representation of the flame wrinkling factor. The turbulent Reynolds number Ret has been varied by modifying the Karlovitz number Ka and the Damköhler number Da independently of each other in such a way that the flames remain within the thin reaction zones regime. It has been found that the turbulent Reynolds number and the Karlovitz number both have a significant influence on the fractal dimension, which is found to increase with increasing Ret and Ka before reaching an asymptotic value for large values of Ret and Ka. A parameterisation of the fractal dimension is presented in which the effects of the Reynolds and the Karlovitz numbers are explicitly taken into account. By contrast, the inner cut-off scale normalised by the Zel'dovich flame thickness ηi/δz does not exhibit any significant dependence on Ret for the cases considered here. The performance of several algebraic FSD models has been assessed based on various criteria. Most of the algebraic models show a deterioration in performance with increasing the LES filter width. © 2012 Mohit Katragadda et al.

Linear and nonlinear model large-eddy simulations of a plane jet

The nonlinear Kosovic, and mixed Leray and α subgrid scale models are contrasted with linear Smagorinsky and Yoshizawa Large Eddy Simulations for a Re = 4000 plane jet simulation. Comparisons are made with Direct Numerical Simulation data and measurements. Global properties of the jet such as the spreading and centreline velocity decay rates are investigated. The mean-flow and turbulence parameters in the self-similar region are also studied. All models generally give encouraging agreement with the Direct Numerical Simulation data and reliable measurements. Solution differences for the models are relatively minor, none giving clear improvements for all data comparisons.

Kernelized log linear models for continuous speech recognition

Large margin criteria and discriminative models are two effective improvements for HMM-based speech recognition. This paper proposed a large margin trained log linear model with kernels for CSR. To avoid explicitly computing in the high dimensional feature space and to achieve the nonlinear decision boundaries, a kernel based training and decoding framework is proposed in this work. To make the system robust to noise a kernel adaptation scheme is also presented. Previous work in this area is extended in two directions. First, most kernels for CSR focus on measuring the similarity between two observation sequences. The proposed joint kernels defined a similarity between two observation-label sequence pairs on the sentence level. Second, this paper addresses how to efficiently employ kernels in large margin training and decoding with lattices. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at using large margin kernel-based log linear models for CSR. The model is evaluated on a noise corrupted continuous digit task: AURORA 2.0. © 2013 IEEE.

Non linear constitutive models for lattice materials

We use a computational homogenisation approach to derive a non linear constitutive model for lattice materials. A representative volume element (RVE) of the lattice is modelled by means of discrete structural elements, and macroscopic stress-strain relationships are numerically evaluated after applying appropriate periodic boundary conditions to the RVE. The influence of the choice of the RVE on the predictions of the model is discussed. The model has been used for the analysis of the hexagonal and the triangulated lattices subjected to large strains. The fidelity of the model has been demonstrated by analysing a plate with a central hole under prescribed in plane compressive and tensile loads, and then comparing the results from the discrete and the homogenised models. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.