Exploring the impacts of the interactions between lifecycles and other dynamics that influence the development of technology-based industries

To address future uncertainty within strategy and innovation, managers extrapolate past patterns and trends into the future. Several disciplines make use of lifecycles, often with a linear sequence of identified phases, to make predictions and address likely uncertainties. Often the aggregation of several cycles is then interpreted as a new cycle - such as product lifecycles into an industry lifecycle. However, frequently different lifecycle terms - technology, product, industry - are used interchangeably and without clear definition. Within the interdisciplinary context of technology management, this juxtaposition of dynamics can create confusion, rather than clarification. This paper explores some typical dynamics associated with technology-based industries, using illustrative examples from the automotive industry. A wide range of dimensions are seen to influence the path of a technology-based industry, and stakeholders need to consider the likely causality and synchronicity of these. Some curves can simply present the aggregation of components; other dynamics incur time lags, rather than being superimposed, but still have a significant impact. To optimise alignment of the important dimensions within any development, and for future strategy decisions, understanding these interactions will be critical. © 2011 IEEE.

A conceptual framework for future-proofing the energy performance of buildings

This paper presents a review undertaken to understand the concept of 'future-proofing' the energy performance of buildings. The long lifecycles of the building stock, the impacts of climate change and the requirements for low carbon development underline the need for long-term thinking from the early design stages. 'Future-proofing' is an emerging research agenda with currently no widely accepted definition amongst scholars and building professionals. In this paper, it refers to design processes that accommodate explicitly full lifecycle perspectives and energy trends and drivers by at least 2050, when selecting energy efficient measures and low carbon technologies. A knowledge map is introduced, which explores the key axes (or attributes) for achieving a 'future-proofed' energy design; namely, coverage of sustainability issues, lifecycle thinking, and accommodating risks and uncertainties that affect the energy consumption. It is concluded that further research is needed so that established building energy assessment methods are refined to better incorporate future-proofing. The study follows an interdisciplinary approach and is targeted at design teams with aspirations to achieve resilient and flexible low-energy buildings over the long-term. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Climate resilience of schools: a case study

Social and political concerns are frequently reflected in the design of school buildings, often in turn leading to the development of technical innovations. One example is a recurrent concern about the physical health of the nation, which has at several points over the last century prompted new design approaches to natural light and ventilation. The most critical concern of the current era is the global, rather than the indoor, environment. The resultant political focus on mitigating climate change has resulted in new regulations, and in turn considerable technical changes in building design and construction. The vanguard of this movement has again been in school buildings, set the highest targets for reducing operational carbon by the previous Government. The current austerity measures have moved the focus to the refurbishment and retrofit of existing buildings, in order to bring them up to the exacting new standards. Meanwhile there is little doubt that climate change is happening already, and that the impacts will be considerable. Climate scientists have increasing confidence in their predictions for the future; if today’s buildings are to be resilient to these changes, building designers will need to understand and design for the predicted climates in order to continue to provide comfortable and healthy spaces through the lifetimes of the buildings. This paper describes the decision processes, and the planned design measures, for adapting an existing school for future climates. The project is at St Faith’s School in Cambridge, and focuses on three separate buildings: a large Victorian block built as a substantial domestic dwelling in 1885, a smaller single storey 1970s block with a new extension, and an as-yet unbuilt single storey block designed to passivhaus principles and using environmentally friendly materials. The implications of climate change have been considered for the three particular issues of comfort, construction, and water, as set out in the report on Design for Future Climate: opportunities for adaptation in the built environment (Gething, 2010). The adaptation designs aim to ensure each of the three very different buildings remains fit for purpose throughout the 21st century, continuing to provide a healthy environment for the children. A forth issue, the reduction of carbon and the mitigation of other negative environmental impacts of the construction work, is also a fundamental aim for the school and the project team. Detailed modelling of both the operational and embodied energy and carbon of the design options is therefore being carried out, in order that the whole life carbon costs of the adaptation design options may be minimised. The project has been funded by the Technology Strategy Board as part of the Design for Future Climates programme; the interdisciplinary team includes the designers working on the current school building projects and the school bursar, supported by researchers from the University of Cambridge Centre for Sustainable Development. It is hoped that lessons from the design process, as well as the solutions themselves, will be transferable to other buildings in similar climatic regions.

Exploring industry dynamics and interactions

Within strategic technology management and innovation, often stakeholders extrapolate past industry dynamics, trends and patterns into the future. One frequently used concept is that of 'lifecycles' - an analogy of a sequence of stages encountered by living organisms. Lifecycle terms - such as technology, product, industry - are frequently used interchangeably and without clear definition. Within the interdisciplinary context of technology management and forecasting, this juxtaposition of dynamics can create confusion rather than simplification. This paper explores some of the dynamics typically associated with technology-based industries, illustrated with data from the early US automotive industry. A wide range of dimensions are seen to have potential to influence the path of industry development, and technology roadmapping architecture is used to present a simplified visualisation of some of these. Stakeholders need to consider the units of analysis, causality and synchronicity of relevant different dynamics, rather than isolated lifecycles. Some graphical curves represent simple aggregation of components; other dynamics have significant impact, but incur time lags, rather than being superimposed. To optimise alignment of the important dimensions within any technology development, and for future strategy decisions, understanding these interactions is critical. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Exploring an effective model of new product development in medical devices: A knowledge cluster approach

This study proposes a new product development (NPD) model that aims to improve the effectiveness of innovative NPD in the medical devices. By adopting open innovation theory and applying an in-depth investigation methodology, this paper proposes a knowledge cluster that improves the integration of interdisciplinary human resources and enhances the acquirement of innovative technologies. A knowledge cluster approach helps gather, organise, synthesise, and accumulate knowledge in order to become the impetus for innovation. Although enterprises are no longer the principals of research and development, they should still be capable of integrating professional physicians, external groups, and individuals through the knowledge cluster platform. However, in order to support an effective NPD model, enterprises should provide adequate incentives and trust to external individuals or groups willing to contribute their expertise and knowledge to this knowledge cluster platform. Copyright © 2013 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Briefing: Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050 - Urban Foresight and Transition Management

Cities may be responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption and by 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population could live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city regions systemically to re-engineer their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050: Urban Foresight and Transition Management (Retrofit 2050) is a major new interdisciplinary project funded under the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council's (EPSRC) Sustainable Urban Environments Programme which seeks to address this challenge. This briefing describes the background and conceptual framing of Retrofit 2050 project, its aims and objectives and research approach.

Embodied Artificial Intelligence

This book is devoted to the rapidly growing highly interdisciplinary field of embodied artificial intelligence involving researchers from areas as diverse as computer science, engineering, cognitive science, neuroscience, biology, ...