Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Multi-objective design and optimisation of bypass outlet-guide vanes

This paper describes the development of an automated design optimization system that makes use of a high fidelity Reynolds-Averaged CFD analysis procedure to minimize the fan forcing and fan BOGV (bypass outlet guide vane) losses simultaneously taking into the account the down-stream pylon and RDF (radial drive fairing) distortions. The design space consists of the OGV's stagger angle, trailing-edge recambering, axial and circumferential positions leading to a variable pitch optimum design. An advanced optimization system called SOFT (Smart Optimisation for Turbomachinery) was used to integrate a number of pre-processor, simulation and in-house grid generation codes and postprocessor programs. A number of multi-objective, multi-point optimiztion were carried out by SOFT on a cluster of workstations and are reported herein.

Compressor wake/leading-edge interactions at off design incidences

In this paper, the effects of wake/leading-edge interactions were studied at off-design conditions. Measurements were performed on the stator-blade suction surface at midspan. The leading-edge flow-field was investigated using hotwire micro-traverses, hotfilm surface shear-stress sensors and pressure micro-tappings. The trailing-edge flow-field was investigated using hotwire boundary-layer traverses. Unsteady CFD calculations were also performed to aid the interpretation of the results. At low flow coefficients, the time-averaged momentum thickness of the leading-edge boundary layer was found to rise as the flow coefficient was reduced. The time-resolved momentum-thickness rose due to the interaction of the incoming rotor wake. As the flow coefficient was reduced, the incoming wakes increased in pitch-wise extent, velocity deficit and turbulence intensity. This increased both the time-resolved rise in the momentum thickness and the turbulent spot production within the wake affected boundary-layer. Close to stall, a drop in the leading-edge momentum thickness was observed in-between wake events. This was associated with the formation of a leading-edge separation bubble in-between wake events. The wake interaction with the bubble gave rise to a shedding phenomenon, which produced large length scale disturbances in the surface shear stress. Copyright © 2008 by ASME.

Multi-objective aerodynamic design optimisation for axial compressors

This paper considers the aerodynamic design optimisation of turbomachinery blades from a multi-objective perspective. The aim is to improve the performance of a specific stage and eventually of the whole engine. The integrated system developed for this purpose is described. It combines an existing geometry parameterisation scheme, a well-established CFD package and a novel multi-objective variant of the Tabu Search optimisation algorithm. Its performance is illustrated through a case study in which the flow characteristics most important to the overall performance of turbomachinery blades are optimised.

The technical potential for reducing metal requirements through lightweight product design

Metal production consumes around 10% of all global energy, so is a significant driver of climate change and other concerns about sustainability. Demand for metal is rising and forecast to double by 2050 through a combination of growing total demand from developing countries, and ongoing replacement demand in developed economies. Metal production is already extremely efficient, so the major opportunities for emissions abatement in the sector are likely to arise from material efficiency - using less new metal to meet demand for services. Therefore this paper examines the opportunity to reduce requirements for steel and aluminium by lightweight design. A set of general principles for lightweight design are proposed by way of a simple analytical example, and are then applied to five case study products which cumulatively account for 30% of global steel product output. It is shown that exploiting lightweight design opportunities for these five products alone could reduce global steel requirements by 5%, and similar savings in aluminium products could reduce global aluminium requirements by 7%. If similar savings to those in the design case studies were possible in all steel and aluminium products, total material requirements could be reduced by 25-30%. However, many of these light-weighting measures are, at present, economically unattractive, and may take many years to implement. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Explosion pressure prediction via polynomial mathematical correlation based on advanced CFD Modelling

Computational Fluid Dynamics CFD can be used as a powerful tool supporting engineers throughout the steps of the design. The combination of CFD with response surface methodology can play an important role in such cases. During the conceptual engineering design phase, a quick response is always a matter of urgency. During this phase even a sketch of the geometrical model is rare. Therefore, the utilisation of typical response surface developed for congested and confined environment rather than CFD can be an important tool to help the decision making process, when the geometrical model is not available, provided that similarities can be considered when taking into account the characteristic of the geometry in which the response surface was developed. The present work investigates how three different types of response surfaces behave when predicting overpressure in accidental scenarios based on CFD input. First order, partial second order and complete second order polynomial expressions are investigated. The predicted results are compared with CFD findings for a classical offshore experiment conducted by British Gas on behalf of Mobil and good agreement is observed for higher order response surfaces. The higher order response surface calculations are also compared with CFD calculations for a typical offshore module and good agreement is also observed. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Buyer-supplier partnerships during product design and development in the global automotive sector: Who invests, in what and when?

This paper explores the concept of partnerships between buyers and suppliers in the global automotive sector during product design and development. Partnerships are often the goal in a shift away from adversarial arms-length relationships. The objective of this research is to provide empirical evidence to explain the levels of mutual investment expected and achieved in partnerships from both buyer and supplier perspectives. During this research, 25 employees from 12 global supplier organisations who were in partnership with a specific vehicle manufacturer (VM) were interviewed. Twelve employees from this VM were also interviewed. The research showed the differences between partnerships and non-partnerships and the disparities in the expectations of investment from each partner. For suppliers and buyers to get the most out of partnerships, clear expectations and investments needed over time should be understood and agreed early in the relationship. © 2009 Elsevier B.V.All rights reserved.

Robust airfoil design with respect to boundary layer transition

In order to disign an airfoil of which maximum lift coefficient (CL max) is not sensitive to location of forced top boundary layer transition. Taking maximizing mean value of CL max and minimizing standard deviation as biobjective, leading edge radius, manximum thickness and its location, maximum camber and its location as deterministic design variables, location of forced top boundary layer transition as stochastic variable, XFOIL as deterministic CFD solver, non-intrusive polynomial chaos as substitute of Monte Carlo method, we completed a robust airfoil design problem. Results demonstrate performance of initial airfoil is enhanced through reducing standard deviation of CL max. Besides, we also know maximum thickness has the most dominating effect on mean value of CL max, location of maximum thickness has the most dominating effect on standard deviation of CL max, maximum camber has a little effect on both mean value and standard deviation, and maximum camber is the only element of which increase can lead increase of mean value and standard deviation at the same time. Copyright © 2009 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

Superconducting fault current limiter design using parallel-connected YBCO thin films

Superconducting Fault Current Limiters (SFCLs) are able to reduce fault currents to an acceptable value, reducing potential mechanical and thermal damage to power system apparatus and allowing more flexibility in power system design and operation. The device can also help avoid replacing circuit breakers whose capacity has been exceeded. Due to limitations in current YBCO thin film manufacturing processes, it is not easy to obtain one large thin film that satisfies the specifications for high voltage and large current applications. The combination of standardized thin films has merit to reduce costs and maintain device quality, and it is necessary to connect these thin films in different series and parallel configurations in order to meet these specifications. In this paper, the design of a resistive type SFCL using parallel-connected YBCO thin films is discussed, including the role of a parallel resistor and the influence of individual thin film characteristics, based on both theory and experimental results. © 2009 IEEE.

CFD modeling of single-phase flow in a packed bed with MRI validation

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are becoming increasingly widespread with the advent of more powerful computers and more sophisticated software. The aim of these developments is to facilitate more accurate reactor design and optimization methods compared to traditional lumped-parameter models. However, in order for CFD to be a trusted method, it must be validated using experimental data acquired at sufficiently high spatial resolution. This article validates an in-house CFD code by comparison with flow-field data obtained using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for a packed bed with a particle-to-column diameter ratio of 2. Flows characterized by inlet Reynolds numbers, based on particle diameter, of 27, 55, 111, and 216 are considered. The code used employs preconditioning to directly solve for pressure in low-velocity flow regimes. Excellent agreement was found between the MRI and CFD data with relative error between the experimentally determined and numerically predicted flow-fields being in the range of 3-9%. © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE).

The design of multi-element airfoils through multi-objective optimization techniques

This paper presents the development and the application of a multi-objective optimization framework for the design of two-dimensional multi-element high-lift airfoils. An innovative and efficient optimization algorithm, namely Multi-Objective Tabu Search (MOTS), has been selected as core of the framework. The flow-field around the multi-element configuration is simulated using the commercial computational fluid dynamics (cfd) suite Ansys cfx. Elements shape and deployment settings have been considered as design variables in the optimization of the Garteur A310 airfoil, as presented here. A validation and verification process of the cfd simulation for the Garteur airfoil is performed using available wind tunnel data. Two design examples are presented in this study: a single-point optimization aiming at concurrently increasing the lift and drag performance of the test case at a fixed angle of attack and a multi-point optimization. The latter aims at introducing operational robustness and off-design performance into the design process. Finally, the performance of the MOTS algorithm is assessed by comparison with the leading NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm) optimization strategy. An equivalent framework developed by the authors within the industrial sponsor environment is used for the comparison. To eliminate cfd solver dependencies three optimum solutions from the Pareto optimal set have been cross-validated. As a result of this study MOTS has been demonstrated to be an efficient and effective algorithm for aerodynamic optimizations. Copyright © 2012 Tech Science Press.

200 v superjunction N-type lateral insulated-gate bipolar transistor with improved latch-up characteristics

This paper evaluates the technique used to improve the latching characteristics of the 200 V n-type superjunction (SJ) lateral insulated-gate bipolar transistor (LIGBT) on a partial silicon-on-insulator. SJ IGBT devices are more prone to latch-up than standard IGBTs due to the presence of a strong pnp transistor with the p layer serving as an effective collector of holes. The initial SJ LIGBT design latches at about 23 V with a gate voltage of 5 V with a forward voltage drop (VON) of 2 V at 300 Acm2. The latch-up current density is 1100 Acm2. The latest SJ LIGBT design shows an increase in latch-up voltage close to 100 V without a significant penalty in VON. The latest design shows a latch-up current density of 1195 A cm2. The enhanced robustness against static latch-up leads to a better forward bias safe operating area. © 1963-2012 IEEE.