Near optimal combination of sensory and motor uncertainty in time during a naturalistic perception-action task.

Most behavioral tasks have time constraints for successful completion, such as catching a ball in flight. Many of these tasks require trading off the time allocated to perception and action, especially when only one of the two is possible at any time. In general, the longer we perceive, the smaller the uncertainty in perceptual estimates. However, a longer perception phase leaves less time for action, which results in less precise movements. Here we examine subjects catching a virtual ball. Critically, as soon as subjects began to move, the ball became invisible. We study how subjects trade-off sensory and movement uncertainty by deciding when to initiate their actions. We formulate this task in a probabilistic framework and show that subjects' decisions when to start moving are statistically near optimal given their individual sensory and motor uncertainties. Moreover, we accurately predict individual subject's task performance. Thus we show that subjects in a natural task are quantitatively aware of how sensory and motor variability depend on time and act so as to minimize overall task variability.

Spoken document representations for probabilistic retrieval

This paper presents some developments in query expansion and document representation of our spoken document retrieval system and shows how various retrieval techniques affect performance for different sets of transcriptions derived from a common speech source. Modifications of the document representation are used, which combine several techniques for query expansion, knowledge-based on one hand and statistics-based on the other. Taken together, these techniques can improve Average Precision by over 19% relative to a system similar to that which we presented at TREC-7. These new experiments have also confirmed that the degradation of Average Precision due to a word error rate (WER) of 25% is quite small (3.7% relative) and can be reduced to almost zero (0.2% relative). The overall improvement of the retrieval system can also be observed for seven different sets of transcriptions from different recognition engines with a WER ranging from 24.8% to 61.5%. We hope to repeat these experiments when larger document collections become available, in order to evaluate the scalability of these techniques.

Spark ignition of turbulent premixed and non-premixed opposed jet flames

The probabilistic nature of ignition of premixed and non-premixecl turbulent opposed-jet flames has been examined and the flame structures following ignition have been visualized directly and with OH-PLIF. It has been found that high bulk velocities decrease the ignition probability in all locations and for all flames. Ignition is sometimes possible even in locations where there is negligible probability of finding flammable mixture and is sometimes impossible in locations with high probability of flammable fluid. The edge flame propagation speed is also estimated.

Video tracking using dual-treewavelet polar matching and particle filtering

In this paper, we describe a video tracking application using the dual-tree polar matching algorithm. The models are specified in a probabilistic setting, and a particle ilter is used to perform the sequential inference. Computer simulations demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to track a simulated video moving target in an urban environment with complete and partial occlusions. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology.

Demodulation as probabilistic inference

Demodulation is an ill-posed problem whenever both carrier and envelope signals are broadband and unknown. Here, we approach this problem using the methods of probabilistic inference. The new approach, called Probabilistic Amplitude Demodulation (PAD), is computationally challenging but improves on existing methods in a number of ways. By contrast to previous approaches to demodulation, it satisfies five key desiderata: PAD has soft constraints because it is probabilistic; PAD is able to automatically adjust to the signal because it learns parameters; PAD is user-steerable because the solution can be shaped by user-specific prior information; PAD is robust to broad-band noise because this is modeled explicitly; and PAD's solution is self-consistent, empirically satisfying a Carrier Identity property. Furthermore, the probabilistic view naturally encompasses noise and uncertainty, allowing PAD to cope with missing data and return error bars on carrier and envelope estimates. Finally, we show that when PAD is applied to a bandpass-filtered signal, the stop-band energy of the inferred carrier is minimal, making PAD well-suited to sub-band demodulation. © 2006 IEEE.

Towards probabilistic performance metrics for climate change impact studies

This paper explores the current state-of-the-art in performance indicators and use of probabilistic approaches used in climate change impact studies. It presents a critical review of recent publications in this field, focussing on (1) metrics for energy use for heating and cooling, emissions, overheating and high-level performance aspects, and (2) uptake of uncertainty and risk analysis. This is followed by a case study, which is used to explore some of the contextual issues around the broader uptake of climate change impact studies in practice. The work concludes that probabilistic predictions of the impact of climate change are feasible, but only based on strict and explicitly stated assumptions. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections

This article investigates how to use UK probabilistic climate-change projections (UKCP09) in rigorous building energy analysis. Two office buildings (deep plan and shallow plan) are used as case studies to demonstrate the application of UKCP09. Three different methods for reducing the computational demands are explored: statistical reduction (Finkelstein-Schafer [F-S] statistics), simplification using degree-day theory and the use of metamodels. The first method, which is based on an established technique, can be used as reference because it provides the most accurate information. However, it is necessary to automatically choose weather files based on F-S statistic by using computer programming language because thousands of weather files created from UKCP09 weather generator need to be processed. A combination of the second (degree-day theory) and third method (metamodels) requires only a relatively small number of simulation runs, but still provides valuable information to further implement the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The article also demonstrates how grid computing can be used to speed up the calculation for many independent EnergyPlus models by harnessing the processing power of idle desktop computers. © 2011 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).