Beyond niche thinking: Market selection in science-based ventures

Matching a new technology to an appropriate market is a major challenge for new technology-based firms (NTBF). Such firms are often advised to target niche-markets where the firms and their technologies can establish themselves relatively free of incumbent competition. However, technologies are diverse in nature and do not benefit from identical strategies. In contrast to many Information and Communication Technology (ICT) innovations which build on an established knowledge base for fairly specific applications, technologies based on emerging science are often generic and so have a number of markets and applications open to them, each carrying considerable technological and market uncertainty. Each of these potential markets is part of a complex and evolving ecosystem from which the venture may have to access significant complementary assets in order to create and sustain commercial value. Based on dataset and case study research on UK advanced material university spin-outs (USO), we find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the more commercially successful ventures were targeting mainstream markets by working closely with large, established competitors during early development. While niche markets promise protection from incumbent firms, science-based innovations, such as new materials, often require the presence, and participation, of established companies in order to create value. © 2012 IEEE.

Neural mechanisms of belief inference during cooperative games.

Humans have the arguably unique ability to understand the mental representations of others. For success in both competitive and cooperative interactions, however, this ability must be extended to include representations of others' belief about our intentions, their model about our belief about their intentions, and so on. We developed a "stag hunt" game in which human subjects interacted with a computerized agent using different degrees of sophistication (recursive inferences) and applied an ecologically valid computational model of dynamic belief inference. We show that rostral medial prefrontal (paracingulate) cortex, a brain region consistently identified in psychological tasks requiring mentalizing, has a specific role in encoding the uncertainty of inference about the other's strategy. In contrast, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex encodes the depth of recursion of the strategy being used, an index of executive sophistication. These findings reveal putative computational representations within prefrontal cortex regions, supporting the maintenance of cooperation in complex social decision making.

An example of the use of neural computing techniques in materials science - The modelling of fatigue thresholds in Ni-base superalloys

Two adaptive numerical modelling techniques have been applied to prediction of fatigue thresholds in Ni-base superalloys. A Bayesian neural network and a neurofuzzy network have been compared, both of which have the ability to automatically adjust the network's complexity to the current dataset. In both cases, despite inevitable data restrictions, threshold values have been modelled with some degree of success. However, it is argued in this paper that the neurofuzzy modelling approach offers real benefits over the use of a classical neural network as the mathematical complexity of the relationships can be restricted to allow for the paucity of data, and the linguistic fuzzy rules produced allow assessment of the model without extensive interrogation and examination using a hypothetical dataset. The additive neurofuzzy network structure means that redundant inputs can be excluded from the model and simple sub-networks produced which represent global output trends. Both of these aspects are important for final verification and validation of the information extracted from the numerical data. In some situations neurofuzzy networks may require less data to produce a stable solution, and may be easier to verify in the light of existing physical understanding because of the production of transparent linguistic rules. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A.