Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

Collapse mechanism maps for the hollow pyramidal core of a sandwich panel under transverse shear

The finite element method has been used to develop collapse mechanism maps for the shear response of sandwich panels with a stainless steel core comprising hollow struts. The core topology comprises either vertical tubes or inclined tubes in a pyramidal arrangement. The dependence of the elastic and plastic buckling modes upon core geometry is determined, and optimal geometric designs are obtained as a function of core density. For the hollow pyramidal core, strength depends primarily upon the relative density ρ̄ of the core with a weak dependence upon tube slenderness. At ρ̄ below about 3%, the tubes of the pyramidal core buckle plastically and the peak shear strength scales linearly with ρ̄. In contrast, at ρ̄ above 3%, the tubes do not buckle and a stable shear response is observed. The predictions of the current study are in excellent agreement with previous measurements on the shear strength of the hollow pyramidal core, and suggest that this core topology is attractive from the perspectives of both core strength and energy absorption. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.