Value of information in product recovery decisions: A Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Analysis of case histories on deep excavations in marine clay

Two case histories on deep excavation of marine clay are used to study the use of a decision-making tool based on a new deign method called the Mobilized Strength Design (MSD) method which allows the designer to use a simple method of predicting ground displacements during deep excavation. This application can approximately satisfy both safety and serviceability requirements by predicting stresses and displacements under working conditions by introducing the concept of "Mobilizable soil strength". The new method accommodates a number of features which are important to design of underground construction between retaining walls, including different deformation mechanism in different stages of excavation. The influence of wall depth, wall flexibility and stratified ground are the major focus of this paper. These developments should make it possible for a design engineer to take informed decisions on the influence of wall stiffness, or on the need for a jet-grouted base slab, for example, without having to conduct project-specific Finite Element Analysis.

Supporting excavations in clay - From analysis to decision-making

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is used to calibrate a decision-making tool based on an extension of the Mobilized Strength Design (MSD) method which permits the designer an extremely simple method of predicting ground displacements during construction. This newly extended MSD approach accommodates a number of issues which are important in underground construction between in-situ walls, including: alternative base heave mechanisms suitable either for wide excavations in relatively shallow soft clay strata, or narrow excavations in relatively deep soft strata; the influence of support system stiffness in relation to the sequence of propping of the wall; and the capability of dealing with stratified ground. These developments should make it possible for a design engineer to take informed decisions on the relationship between prop spacing and ground movements, or the influence of wall stiffness, or on the need for and influence of a jet-grouted base slab, for example, without having to conduct project-specific FEA. © 2009 Taylor & Francis Group.

The decay of Saffman and batchelor turbulence subject to rotation, stratification or an imposed magnetic field

We consider unforced, statistically-axisymmetric turbulence evolving in the presence of a background rotation, an imposed stratification, or a uniform magnetic field. We focus on two canonical cases: Saffman turbulence, in which E(κ → 0) ∼ κ 2, and Batchelor turbulence, in which E(κ → 0) ∼ κ 4. It has recently been shown that, provided the large scales evolve in a self-similar manner, then u ⊥ 2ℓ ⊥ 2ℓ // = constant in Saffman turbulence and u ⊥ 2ℓ ⊥ 4ℓ // = constant in Batchelor turbulence (Davidson, 2009, 2010). Here the subscripts ⊥ and // indicate directions perpendicular and parallel to the axis of symmetry, and ℓ ⊥, ℓ //, and u ⊥ are suitably defined integral scales. These constraints on the integral scales allow us to make simple, testable predictions for the temporal evolution of ℓ ⊥, ℓ //, and u ⊥ in rotating, stratified and MHD turbulence.

Travel behaviour applied in freight transportation using intelligent products

The route planning problem for an order in freight transportation involves the selection of the best route for its transportation given a set of options that the network can offer. In its adaptive (or dynamic) version, the problem deals with the planning of a new route for an order while it is actually in transit typically because part or all of its pre-selected route is blocked or disrupted. In the intelligent product approach we are proposing, an order would be capable of identifying and evaluating such new routes in an automated manner and choosing the most preferable one without the intervention of humans. Because such approaches seek to mirror (and then automate) human decision making, in this paper we seek to identify new ways for dynamic route planning in industrial logistics inspired by the way people make similar decisions about their journey when they travel in multi-modal networks. We propose a new simulation game as a methodological tool for capturing their travel behaviour and we use it in this study. The results show that a simulation game can be used for capturing strategies and tactics of travellers and that intelligent products can provide a proper platform for the usage of such strategies in freight logistics. © 2012 IEEE.