41 resultados para Forecast combination


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Metal production consumes around 10% of all global energy, so is a significant driver of climate change and other concerns about sustainability. Demand for metal is rising and forecast to double by 2050 through a combination of growing total demand from developing countries, and ongoing replacement demand in developed economies. Metal production is already extremely efficient, so the major opportunities for emissions abatement in the sector are likely to arise from material efficiency - using less new metal to meet demand for services. Therefore this paper examines the opportunity to reduce requirements for steel and aluminium by lightweight design. A set of general principles for lightweight design are proposed by way of a simple analytical example, and are then applied to five case study products which cumulatively account for 30% of global steel product output. It is shown that exploiting lightweight design opportunities for these five products alone could reduce global steel requirements by 5%, and similar savings in aluminium products could reduce global aluminium requirements by 7%. If similar savings to those in the design case studies were possible in all steel and aluminium products, total material requirements could be reduced by 25-30%. However, many of these light-weighting measures are, at present, economically unattractive, and may take many years to implement. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Recent development of solution processable organic semiconductors delineates the emergence of a new generation of air-stable, high performance p- and n-type materials. This makes it indeed possible for printed organic complementary circuits (CMOS) to be used in real applications. The main technical bottleneck for organic CMOS to be adopted as the next generation organic integrated circuit is how to deposit and pattern both p- and n-type semiconductor materials with high resolutions at the same time. It represents a significant technical challenge, especially if it can be done for multiple layers without mask alignment. In this paper, we propose a one-step self-aligned fabrication process which allows the deposition and high resolution patterning of functional layers for both p- and n-channel thin film transistors (TFTs) simultaneously. All the dimensional information of the device components is featured on a single imprinting stamp, and the TFT-channel geometry, electrodes with different work functions, p- and n-type semiconductors and effective gate dimensions can all be accurately defined by one-step imprinting and the subsequent pattern transfer process. As an example, we have demonstrated an organic complementary inverter fabricated by 3D imprinting in combination with inkjet printing and the measured electrical characteristics have validated the feasibility of the novel technique. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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State-of-the-art large vocabulary continuous speech recognition (LVCSR) systems often combine outputs from multiple subsystems developed at different sites. Cross system adaptation can be used as an alternative to direct hypothesis level combination schemes such as ROVER. The standard approach involves only cross adapting acoustic models. To fully exploit the complimentary features among sub-systems, language model (LM) cross adaptation techniques can be used. Previous research on multi-level n-gram LM cross adaptation is extended to further include the cross adaptation of neural network LMs in this paper. Using this improved LM cross adaptation framework, significant error rate gains of 4.0%-7.1% relative were obtained over acoustic model only cross adaptation when combining a range of Chinese LVCSR sub-systems used in the 2010 and 2011 DARPA GALE evaluations. Copyright © 2011 ISCA.

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An experimental investigation has been undertaken in which vortex generators (VGs) have been employed to inhibit boundary-layer separation produced by the combined adversepressure- gradient of a terminal shock-wave and subsonic diffuser. This setup has been developed as part of a program to produce a more inlet relevant flow-field using a small-scale wind tunnel than previous studies. The resulting flow is dominated by large-scale separation, and as such, is thought to be a good test-bed for flow control. In this investigation, VGs have been added to determine their potential for shock-induced separation mitigation. In line with previous studies, it was observed that the application of VGs alone was not able to significantly alleviate separation overall, because enlarged corner separations was observed. Only when control of the corner separations using corner bleed was employed alongside centre-span control using VGs was a significant improvement in both wall pressure recovery (6% increase) and stagnation pressure recovery (2.4% increase) observed. Copyright © 2012 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

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State-of-the-art large vocabulary continuous speech recognition (LVCSR) systems often combine outputs from multiple sub-systems that may even be developed at different sites. Cross system adaptation, in which model adaptation is performed using the outputs from another sub-system, can be used as an alternative to hypothesis level combination schemes such as ROVER. Normally cross adaptation is only performed on the acoustic models. However, there are many other levels in LVCSR systems' modelling hierarchy where complimentary features may be exploited, for example, the sub-word and the word level, to further improve cross adaptation based system combination. It is thus interesting to also cross adapt language models (LMs) to capture these additional useful features. In this paper cross adaptation is applied to three forms of language models, a multi-level LM that models both syllable and word sequences, a word level neural network LM, and the linear combination of the two. Significant error rate reductions of 4.0-7.1% relative were obtained over ROVER and acoustic model only cross adaptation when combining a range of Chinese LVCSR sub-systems used in the 2010 and 2011 DARPA GALE evaluations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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To investigate whether vortex generators can be an effective form of passive flow control an experimental investigation has been conducted in a small-scale wind tunnel. With specific emphasis on supersonic inlet applications flow separation was initiated using a combined terminal shock wave and subsonic diffuser: a configuration that has been developed as a part of a program to produce a more inlet-relevant flowfield in a small-scale wind tunnel than previous studies. When flow control was initially introduced little overall flow improvement was obtained as the losses tended to be redistributed instead of removed. It became apparent that there existed a strong coupling between the center-span flow and the corner flows. As a consequence, only when flow control was applied to both the corner flows and center-span flow was a significant flow improvement obtained. When corner suction and center-span vortex generators were employed in tandem separation was much reduced and wall-pressure and stagnation pressure were notably improved. As a result, when applied appropriately, it is thought that vortex generators do have the potential to reduce the dependence on boundary-layer bleed for the purpose of separation suppression. Copyright © 2012 by Neil Titchener and Holger Babinsky. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

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A novel smoke sensor was used to realize smoke feedback control on a diesel engine. The controller design based on a combination of PI control algorithm and the engine performance optimization is described. Experimental results demonstrate how this control system behave to meet both of the speed and smoke requirements during engine transients.

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Spoken content in languages of emerging importance needs to be searchable to provide access to the underlying information. In this paper, we investigate the problem of extending data fusion methodologies from Information Retrieval for Spoken Term Detection on low-resource languages in the framework of the IARPA Babel program. We describe a number of alternative methods improving keyword search performance. We apply these methods to Cantonese, a language that presents some new issues in terms of reduced resources and shorter query lengths. First, we show score normalization methodology that improves in average by 20% keyword search performance. Second, we show that properly combining the outputs of diverse ASR systems performs 14% better than the best normalized ASR system. © 2013 IEEE.

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In natural languages multiple word sequences can represent the same underlying meaning. Only modelling the observed surface word sequence can result in poor context coverage, for example, when using n-gram language models (LM). To handle this issue, paraphrastic LMs were proposed in previous research and successfully applied to a US English conversational telephone speech transcription task. In order to exploit the complementary characteristics of paraphrastic LMs and neural network LMs (NNLM), the combination between the two is investigated in this paper. To investigate paraphrastic LMs' generalization ability to other languages, experiments are conducted on a Mandarin Chinese broadcast speech transcription task. Using a paraphrastic multi-level LM modelling both word and phrase sequences, significant error rate reductions of 0.9% absolute (9% relative) and 0.5% absolute (5% relative) were obtained over the baseline n-gram and NNLM systems respectively, after a combination with word and phrase level NNLMs. © 2013 IEEE.