Handling uncertainty in housing stock models

Housing stock models can be useful tools in helping to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of retrofits to residential buildings; however, existing housing stock models are not able to quantify the uncertainties that arise in the modelling process from various sources, thus limiting the role that they can play in helping decision makers. This paper examines the different sources of uncertainty involved in housing stock models and proposes a framework for handling these uncertainties. This framework involves integrating probabilistic sensitivity analysis with a Bayesian calibration process in order to quantify uncertain parameters more accurately. The proposed framework is tested on a case study building, and suggestions are made on how to expand the framework for retrofit analysis at an urban-scale. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Effects of constraint curvature on structural instability: tensile buckling and multiple bifurcations

Bifurcation of an elastic structure crucially depends on the curvature of the constraints against which the ends of the structure are prescribed to move, an effect which deserves more attention than it has received so far. In fact, we show theoretically and we provide definitive experimental verification that an appropriate curvature of the constraint over which the end of a structure has to slide strongly affects buckling loads and can induce: (i.) tensile buckling; (ii.) decreasing- (softening), increasing- (hardening), or constant-load (null stiffness) postcritical behaviour; (iii.) multiple bifurcations, determining for instance two bifurcation loads (one tensile and one compressive) in a single-degree-of-freedom elastic system. We show how to design a constraint profile to obtain a desired postcritical behaviour and we provide the solution for the elastica constrained to slide along a circle on one end, representing the first example of an inflexional elastica developed from a buckling in tension. These results have important practical implications in the design of compliant mechanisms and may find applications in devices operating in quasi-static or dynamic conditions.

Optimal constraint tightening policies for robust variable horizon model predictive control

This paper develops a technique for improving the region of attraction of a robust variable horizon model predictive controller. It considers a constrained discrete-time linear system acted upon by a bounded, but unknown time-varying state disturbance. Using constraint tightening for robustness, it is shown how the tightening policy, parameterised as direct feedback on the disturbance, can be optimised to increase the volume of an inner approximation to the controller's true region of attraction. Numerical examples demonstrate the benefits of the policy in increasing region of attraction volume and decreasing the maximum prediction horizon length. © 2012 IEEE.