Temporal difference models describe higher-order learning in humans.

The ability to use environmental stimuli to predict impending harm is critical for survival. Such predictions should be available as early as they are reliable. In pavlovian conditioning, chains of successively earlier predictors are studied in terms of higher-order relationships, and have inspired computational theories such as temporal difference learning. However, there is at present no adequate neurobiological account of how this learning occurs. Here, in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study of higher-order aversive conditioning, we describe a key computational strategy that humans use to learn predictions about pain. We show that neural activity in the ventral striatum and the anterior insula displays a marked correspondence to the signals for sequential learning predicted by temporal difference models. This result reveals a flexible aversive learning process ideally suited to the changing and uncertain nature of real-world environments. Taken with existing data on reward learning, our results suggest a critical role for the ventral striatum in integrating complex appetitive and aversive predictions to coordinate behaviour.

Dynamic Covariance Models for Multivariate Financial Time Series

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

Comparison of moment-curvature models for fiber-reinforced polymer plate-end debonding studies using global energy balance approach

This paper compares a number of different moment-curvature models for cracked concrete sections that contain both steel and external fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) reinforcement. The question of whether to use a whole-section analysis or one that considers the FRP separately is discussed. Five existing and three new models are compared with test data for moment-curvature or load deflection behavior, and five models are compared with test results for plate-end debonding using a global energy balance approach (GEBA). A proposal is made for the use of one of the simplified models. The availability of a simplified model opens the way to the production of design aids so that the GEBA can be made available to practicing engineers through design guides and parametric studies. Copyright © 2014, American Concrete Institute.