Bayesian parameter identification for vibro-acoustic models with nonparametric uncertainty

Vibration and acoustic analysis at higher frequencies faces two challenges: computing the response without using an excessive number of degrees of freedom, and quantifying its uncertainty due to small spatial variations in geometry, material properties and boundary conditions. Efficient models make use of the observation that when the response of a decoupled vibro-acoustic subsystem is sufficiently sensitive to uncertainty in such spatial variations, the local statistics of its natural frequencies and mode shapes saturate to universal probability distributions. This holds irrespective of the causes that underly these spatial variations and thus leads to a nonparametric description of uncertainty. This work deals with the identification of uncertain parameters in such models by using experimental data. One of the difficulties is that both experimental errors and modeling errors, due to the nonparametric uncertainty that is inherent to the model type, are present. This is tackled by employing a Bayesian inference strategy. The prior probability distribution of the uncertain parameters is constructed using the maximum entropy principle. The likelihood function that is subsequently computed takes the experimental information, the experimental errors and the modeling errors into account. The posterior probability distribution, which is computed with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, provides a full uncertainty quantification of the identified parameters, and indicates how well their uncertainty is reduced, with respect to the prior information, by the experimental data. © 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Sequential Monte Carlo computation of the score and observed information matrix in state-space models with application to parameter estimation

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are popular computational tools for Bayesian inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. For this class of models, we propose SMC algorithms to compute the score vector and observed information matrix recursively in time. We propose two different SMC implementations, one with computational complexity $\mathcal{O}(N)$ and the other with complexity $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ where $N$ is the number of importance sampling draws. Although cheaper, the performance of the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method degrades quickly in time as it inherently relies on the SMC approximation of a sequence of probability distributions whose dimension is increasing linearly with time. In particular, even under strong \textit{mixing} assumptions, the variance of the estimates computed with the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method increases at least quadratically in time. The $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ is a non-standard SMC implementation that does not suffer from this rapid degrade. We then show how both methods can be used to perform batch and recursive parameter estimation.

Representations of uncertainty in sensorimotor control.

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in our sensorimotor interactions, arising from factors such as sensory and motor noise and ambiguity about the environment. Setting it apart from previous theories, a quintessential property of the Bayesian framework for making inference about the state of world so as to select actions, is the requirement to represent the uncertainty associated with inferences in the form of probability distributions. In the context of sensorimotor control and learning, the Bayesian framework suggests that to respond optimally to environmental stimuli the central nervous system needs to construct estimates of the sensorimotor transformations, in the form of internal models, as well as represent the structure of the uncertainty in the inputs, outputs and in the transformations themselves. Here we review Bayesian inference and learning models that have been successful in demonstrating the sensitivity of the sensorimotor system to different forms of uncertainty as well as recent studies aimed at characterizing the representation of the uncertainty at different computational levels.

Structure learning in a sensorimotor association task.

Learning is often understood as an organism's gradual acquisition of the association between a given sensory stimulus and the correct motor response. Mathematically, this corresponds to regressing a mapping between the set of observations and the set of actions. Recently, however, it has been shown both in cognitive and motor neuroscience that humans are not only able to learn particular stimulus-response mappings, but are also able to extract abstract structural invariants that facilitate generalization to novel tasks. Here we show how such structure learning can enhance facilitation in a sensorimotor association task performed by human subjects. Using regression and reinforcement learning models we show that the observed facilitation cannot be explained by these basic models of learning stimulus-response associations. We show, however, that the observed data can be explained by a hierarchical Bayesian model that performs structure learning. In line with previous results from cognitive tasks, this suggests that hierarchical Bayesian inference might provide a common framework to explain both the learning of specific stimulus-response associations and the learning of abstract structures that are shared by different task environments.

Tree-Structured Stick Breaking Processes for Hierarchical Data

Many data are naturally modeled by an unobserved hierarchical structure. In this paper we propose a flexible nonparametric prior over unknown data hierarchies. The approach uses nested stick-breaking processes to allow for trees of unbounded width and depth, where data can live at any node and are infinitely exchangeable. One can view our model as providing infinite mixtures where the components have a dependency structure corresponding to an evolutionary diffusion down a tree. By using a stick-breaking approach, we can apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on slice sampling to perform Bayesian inference and simulate from the posterior distribution on trees. We apply our method to hierarchical clustering of images and topic modeling of text data.

Copula Processes

We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard deviations of a sequence of random variables. To make predictions we use Bayesian inference, with the Laplace approximation, and with Markov chain Monte Carlo as an alternative. We find both methods comparable. We also find our model can outperform GARCH on simulated and financial data. And unlike GARCH, GCPV can easily handle missing data, incorporate covariates other than time, and model a rich class of covariance structures.

Multiple pitch estimation using non-homogeneous poisson processes

Novel statistical models are proposed and developed in this paper for automated multiple-pitch estimation problems. Point estimates of the parameters of partial frequencies of a musical note are modeled as realizations from a non-homogeneous Poisson process defined on the frequency axis. When several notes are combined, the processes for the individual notes combine to give a new Poisson process whose likelihood is easy to compute. This model avoids the data-association step of linking the harmonics of each note with the corresponding partials and is ideal for efficient Bayesian inference of unknown multiple fundamental frequencies in a signal. © 2011 IEEE.

Machine learning for predictive condensed-phase simulation

We show how machine learning techniques based on Bayesian inference can be used to reach new levels of realism in the computer simulation of molecular materials, focusing here on water. We train our machine-learning algorithm using accurate, correlated quantum chemistry, and predict energies and forces in molecular aggregates ranging from clusters to solid and liquid phases. The widely used electronic-structure methods based on density-functional theory (DFT) give poor accuracy for molecular materials like water, and we show how our techniques can be used to generate systematically improvable corrections to DFT. The resulting corrected DFT scheme gives remarkably accurate predictions for the relative energies of small water clusters and of different ice structures, and greatly improves the description of the structure and dynamics of liquid water.

Cognitive Tomography Reveals Complex, Task-Independent Mental Representations

Humans develop rich mental representations that guide their behavior in a variety of everyday tasks. However, it is unknown whether these representations, often formalized as priors in Bayesian inference, are specific for each task or subserve multiple tasks. Current approaches cannot distinguish between these two possibilities because they cannot extract comparable representations across different tasks [1-10]. Here, we develop a novel method, termed cognitive tomography, that can extract complex, multidimensional priors across tasks. We apply this method to human judgments in two qualitatively different tasks, "familiarity" and "odd one out," involving an ecologically relevant set of stimuli, human faces. We show that priors over faces are structurally complex and vary dramatically across subjects, but are invariant across the tasks within each subject. The priors we extract from each task allow us to predict with high precision the behavior of subjects for novel stimuli both in the same task as well as in the other task. Our results provide the first evidence for a single high-dimensional structured representation of a naturalistic stimulus set that guides behavior in multiple tasks. Moreover, the representations estimated by cognitive tomography can provide independent, behavior-based regressors for elucidating the neural correlates of complex naturalistic priors. © 2013 The Authors.