Monte Carlo-Based Bayesian group object tracking and causal reasoning

We present algorithms for tracking and reasoning of local traits in the subsystem level based on the observed emergent behavior of multiple coordinated groups in potentially cluttered environments. Our proposed Bayesian inference schemes, which are primarily based on (Markov chain) Monte Carlo sequential methods, include: 1) an evolving network-based multiple object tracking algorithm that is capable of categorizing objects into groups, 2) a multiple cluster tracking algorithm for dealing with prohibitively large number of objects, and 3) a causality inference framework for identifying dominant agents based exclusively on their observed trajectories.We use these as building blocks for developing a unified tracking and behavioral reasoning paradigm. Both synthetic and realistic examples are provided for demonstrating the derived concepts. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Proceedings of an international workshop on the value of computer-based engineering tools, held in Cambridge in April 1997

There is increasing adoption of computer-based tools to support the product development process. Tolls include computer-aided design, computer-aided manufacture, systems engineering and product data management systems. The fact that companies choose to invest in tools might be regarded as evidence that tools, in aggregate, are perceived to possess business value through their application to engineering activities. Yet the ways in which value accrues from tool technology are poorly understood.

This report records the proceedings of an international workshop during which some novel approaches to improving our understanding of this problem of tool valuation were presented and debated. The value of methods and processes were also discussed. The workshop brought together British, Dutch, German and Italian researchers. The presenters included speakers from industry and academia (the University of Cambridge, the University of Magdeburg and the Politechnico de Torino)

The work presented showed great variety. Research methods include case studies, questionnaires, statistical analysis, semi-structured interviews, deduction, inductive reasoning, the recording of anecdotes and analogies. The presentations drew on financial investment theory, the industrial experience of workshop participants, discussions with students developing tools, modern economic theories and speculation on the effects of company capabilities.

An approach to functional synthesis of solutions in mechanical conceptual design. Part III: Spatial configuration

These three papers describe an approach to the synthesis of solutions to a class of mechanical design problems; these involve transmission and transformation of mechanical forces and motion, and can be described by a set of inputs and outputs. The approach involves (1) identifying a set of primary functional elements and rules of combining them, and (2) developing appropriate representations and reasoning procedures for synthesising solution concepts using these elements and their combination rules; these synthesis procedures can produce an exhaustive set of solution concepts, in terms of their topological as well as spatial configurations, to a given design problem. This paper (Part III) describes a constraint propagation procedure which, using a knowledge base of spatial information about a set of primary functional elements, can produce possible spatial configurations of solution concepts generated in Part II.

MCMC-based tracking and identification of leaders in groups

We present a novel framework for identifying and tracking dominant agents in groups. Our proposed approach relies on a causality detection scheme that is capable of ranking agents with respect to their contribution in shaping the system's collective behaviour based exclusively on the agents' observed trajectories. Further, the reasoning paradigm is made robust to multiple emissions and clutter by employing a class of recently introduced Markov chain Monte Carlo-based group tracking methods. Examples are provided that demonstrate the strong potential of the proposed scheme in identifying actual leaders in swarms of interacting agents and moving crowds. © 2011 IEEE.

The retrieval of structured design rationale for the re-use of design knowledge with an integrated representation

Design knowledge can be acquired from various sources and generally requires an integrated representation for its effective and efficient re-use. Though knowledge about products and processes can illustrate the solutions created (know-what) and the courses of actions (know-how) involved in their creation, the reasoning process (know-why) underlying the solutions and actions is still needed for an integrated representation of design knowledge. Design rationale is an effective way of capturing that missing part, since it records the issues addressed, the options considered, and the arguments used when specific design solutions are created and evaluated. Apart from the need for an integrated representation, effective retrieval methods are also of great importance for the re-use of design knowledge, as the knowledge involved in designing complex products can be huge. Developing methods for the retrieval of design rationale is very useful as part of the effective management of design knowledge, for the following reasons. Firstly, design engineers tend to want to consider issues and solutions before looking at solid models or process specifications in detail. Secondly, design rationale is mainly described using text, which often embodies much relevant design knowledge. Last but not least, design rationale is generally captured by identifying elements and their dependencies, i.e. in a structured way which opens the opportunity for going beyond simple keyword-based searching. In this paper, the management of design rationale for the re-use of design knowledge is presented. The retrieval of design rationale records in particular is discussed in detail. As evidenced in the development and evaluation, the methods proposed are useful for the re-use of design knowledge and can be generalised to be used for the retrieval of other kinds of structured design knowledge. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real Time Concrete Damage Visual Assessment for First Responders

First responders are in danger when they perform tasks in damaged buildings after earthquakes. Structural collapse due to the failure of critical load bearing structural members (e.g. columns) during a post-earthquake event such as an aftershock can make first responders victims, considering they are unable to assess the impact of the damage inflicted in load bearing members. The writers here propose a method that can provide first responders with a crude but quick estimate of the damage inflicted in load bearing members. Under the proposed method, critical structural members (reinforced concrete columns in this study) are identified from digital visual data and the damage superimposed on these structural members is detected with the help of Visual Pattern Recognition techniques. The correlation of the two (e.g. the position, orientation and size of a crack on the surface of a column) is used to query a case-based reasoning knowledge base, which contains apriori classified states of columns according to the damage inflicted on them. When query results indicate the column's damage state is severe, the method assumes that a structural collapse is likely and first responders are warned to evacuate.

Product intelligence: Theory and practice

Are there any benefits in allowing orders and products to be able to manage their own progress through a supply chain? The notion of associating (and even embedding) information management and reasoning capabilities with a physical product has been discussed for over ten years now. This talk will review the notions of product intelligence and examine the rationales for these models and the practicality of their implementation. Both theoretical and practical issues associated with product intelligence will be examined referencing a number of trial deployments in manufacturing, logistics and aerospace equipment servicing. © 2012 IFAC.

Change propagation analysis in complex technical systems

Understanding how and why changes propagate during engineering design is critical because most products and systems emerge from predecessors and not through clean sheet design. This paper applies change propagation analysis methods and extends prior reasoning through examination of a large data set from industry including 41,500 change requests, spanning 8 years during the design of a complex sensor system. Different methods are used to analyze the data and the results are compared to each other and evaluated in the context of previous findings. In particular the networks of connected parent, child and sibling changes are resolved over time and mapped to 46 subsystem areas. A normalized change propagation index (CPI) is then developed, showing the relative strength of each area on the absorber-multiplier spectrum between -1 and +1. Multipliers send out more changes than they receive and are good candidates for more focused change management. Another interesting finding is the quantitative confirmation of the "ripple" change pattern. Unlike the earlier prediction, however, it was found that the peak of cyclical change activity occurred late in the program driven by systems integration and functional testing. Patterns emerged from the data and offer clear implications for technical change management approaches in system design. Copyright © 2007 by ASME.