Changes of mind in decision-making.

A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on evidence and the expected costs and benefits associated with the outcome. Progress in a variety of fields has led to a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms that evaluate evidence and reach a decision. Several formalisms propose that a representation of noisy evidence is evaluated against a criterion to produce a decision. Without additional evidence, however, these formalisms fail to explain why a decision-maker would change their mind. Here we extend a model, developed to account for both the timing and the accuracy of the initial decision, to explain subsequent changes of mind. Subjects made decisions about a noisy visual stimulus, which they indicated by moving a handle. Although they received no additional information after initiating their movement, their hand trajectories betrayed a change of mind in some trials. We propose that noisy evidence is accumulated over time until it reaches a criterion level, or bound, which determines the initial decision, and that the brain exploits information that is in the processing pipeline when the initial decision is made to subsequently either reverse or reaffirm the initial decision. The model explains both the frequency of changes of mind as well as their dependence on both task difficulty and whether the initial decision was accurate or erroneous. The theoretical and experimental findings advance the understanding of decision-making to the highly flexible and cognitive acts of vacillation and self-correction.

Spontaneous formation of highly ordered nanostructures: thermal instability and mode selection in surface-capped polymer films.

We demonstrate a controllable formation process of wave-like patterns in thermally unstable surface-capped polymer films on a rigid substrate. Self-ordered wave-like structures over a large area can be created by applying a small lateral tension to the film, whereupon it becomes unstable. A clear mode selection process which includes creation, decay and interference between coexisting waves at different annealing conditions has been observed, which makes it possible to restrain the patterns which are formed finally. Our results provide a clear and new evidence of spinodal behaviour in such a film due to thermal instability. Furthermore, we show that the well-controlled patterns generated in such a process can be used to fabricate nanostructures for various applications.

How much do we spend to save? Calculating the embodied carbon costs of retrofit

The drive to reduce carbon emissions from domestic housing has led to a recent shift of focus from new-­‐build to retrofit. However there are two significant differences. Firstly more work is needed to retrofit existing housing to the same energy efficiency standards as new-­‐build. Secondly the remaining length of service life is potentially shorter. This implies that the capital expenditure – both financial and carbon -­‐ of retrofit may be disproportionate to the savings gained over the remaining life. However the Government’s definition of low and zero carbon continues to exclude the capital (embodied) carbon costs of construction, which has resulted in a lack of data for comparison. The paper addresses this gap by reporting the embodied carbon costs of retrofitting four individual pilot properties in Rampton Drift, part of an Eco-­‐Town Demonstrator Project in Cambridgeshire. Through collecting details of the materials used and their journeys from manufacturer to site, the paper conducts a ‘cradle-­‐to-­‐gate’ life cycle carbon assessment for each property. The embodied carbon figures are calculated using a software tool being developed by the Centre for Sustainable Development at the University of Cambridge. The key aims are to assess the real embodied carbon costs of retrofit of domestic properties, and to test the new tool; it is hoped that the methodology, the tool and the specific findings will be transferable to other projects. Initial changes in operational energy as a result of the retrofit works will be reported and compared with the embodied carbon costs when presenting this paper.

Discrete element calculations of the impact of a sand column against rigid structures

Discrete particle simulations of column of an aggregate of identical particles impacting a rigid, fixed target and a rigid, movable target are presented with the aim to understand the interaction of an aggregate of particles upon a structure. In most cases the column of particles is constrained against lateral expansion. The pressure exerted by the particles upon the fixed target (and the momentum transferred) is independent of the co-efficient of restitution and friction co-efficient between the particles but are strongly dependent upon the relative density of the particles in the column. There is a mild dependence on the contact stiffness between the particles which controls the elastic deformation of the densified aggregate of particles. In contrast, the momentum transfer to a movable target is strongly sensitive to the mass ratio of column to target. The impact event can be viewed as an inelastic collision between the sand column and the target with an effective co-efficient of restitution between 0 and 0.35 depending upon the relative density of the column. We present a foam analogy where impact of the aggregate of particles can be modelled by the impact of an equivalent foam projectile. The calculations on the equivalent projectile are significantly less intensive computationally and yet give predictions to within 5% of the full discrete particle calculations. They also suggest that "model" materials can be used to simulate the loading by an aggregate of particles within a laboratory setting. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.