Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

Uncertainty management for on-line optimisation of a POMDP-based large-scale spoken dialogue system

The optimization of dialogue policies using reinforcement learning (RL) is now an accepted part of the state of the art in spoken dialogue systems (SDS). Yet, it is still the case that the commonly used training algorithms for SDS require a large number of dialogues and hence most systems still rely on artificial data generated by a user simulator. Optimization is therefore performed off-line before releasing the system to real users. Gaussian Processes (GP) for RL have recently been applied to dialogue systems. One advantage of GP is that they compute an explicit measure of uncertainty in the value function estimates computed during learning. In this paper, a class of novel learning strategies is described which use uncertainty to control exploration on-line. Comparisons between several exploration schemes show that significant improvements to learning speed can be obtained and that rapid and safe online optimisation is possible, even on a complex task. Copyright © 2011 ISCA.

Investigating the link between well-being and energy use; an explorative case study between passive and active domestic energy management systems

The aim of this study was to explore how the remote control of appliances/lights (active energy management system) affected household well-being, compared to in-home displays (passive energy management system). A six-week exploratory study was conducted with 14 participants divided into the following three groups: active; passive; and no equipment. The effect on well-being was measured through thematic analysis of two semi-structured interviews for each participant, administered at the start and end of the study. The well-being themes were based on existing measures of Satisfaction and Affect. The energy demand for each participant was also measured for two weeks without intervention, and then compared after four weeks with either the passive or active energy management systems. These measurements were used to complement the well-being analysis. Overall, the measure of Affect increased in the passive group but Satisfaction decreased; however, all three measures on average decreased in the active group. The measured energy demand also highlighted a disconnect between well-being and domestic energy consumption. The results point to a need for further investigation in this field; otherwise, there is a risk that nationally implemented energy management solutions may negatively affect our happiness and well-being. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Control of aircraft in the terminal manoeuvring area using parallelised sequential Monte Carlo

This paper reports on the use of a parallelised Model Predictive Control, Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for solving the problem of conflict resolution and aircraft trajectory control in air traffic management specifically around the terminal manoeuvring area of an airport. The target problem is nonlinear, highly constrained, non-convex and uses a single decision-maker with multiple aircraft. The implementation includes a spatio-temporal wind model and rolling window simulations for realistic ongoing scenarios. The method is capable of handling arriving and departing aircraft simultaneously including some with very low fuel remaining. A novel flow field is proposed to smooth the approach trajectories for arriving aircraft and all trajectories are planned in three dimensions. Massive parallelisation of the algorithm allows solution speeds to approach those required for real-time use.

Trust-Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England

In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC): introducing a novel technique.

BACKGROUND: After investing significant amounts of time and money in conducting formal risk assessments, such as root cause analysis (RCA) or failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), healthcare workers are left to their own devices in generating high-quality risk control options. They often experience difficulty in doing so, and tend toward an overreliance on administrative controls (the weakest category in the hierarchy of risk controls). This has important implications for patient safety and the cost effectiveness of risk management operations. This paper describes a before and after pilot study of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) technique, a novel tool to improve the quality of the risk control options generation process. OUTCOME MEASURES: The quantity, quality (using the three-tiered hierarchy of risk controls), variety, and novelty of risk controls generated. RESULTS: Use of the GO-ARC technique was associated with improvement on all measures. CONCLUSIONS: While this pilot study has some notable limitations, it appears that the GO-ARC technique improved the risk control options generation process. Further research is needed to confirm this finding. It is also important to note that improved risk control options are a necessary, but not sufficient, step toward the implementation of more robust risk controls.

INFORMATION VISUALIZATION TO SUPPORT MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

Information visualization can accelerate perception, provide insight and control, and harness this flood of valuable data to gain a competitive advantage in making business decisions. Although such a statement seems to be obvious, there is a lack in the literature of practical evidence of the benefit of information visualization. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how, for a major European apparel retailer, the visualization of performance information plays a critical role in improving business decisions and in extracting insights from Redio Frequency Idetification (RFID)-based performance measures. In this paper, we identify - based on a literature review - three fundamental managerial functions of information visualization, namely as: a communication medium, a knowledge management means, and a decision-support instrument. Then, we provide - based on real industrial case evidence - how information visualization supports business decision-making. Several examples are provided to evidence the benefit of information visualization through its three identified managerial functions. We find that - depending on the way performance information is shaped, communicated, and made interactive - it not only helps decision making, but also offers a means of knowledge creation, as well as an appropriate communication channel. © 2014 World Scientific Publishing Company.