A comparison of methods for assessing the lifetime reliability of a moored FPSO

Current design codes for floating offshore structures are based on measures of short-term reliability. That is, a design storm is selected via an extreme value analysis of the environmental conditions and the reliability of the vessel in that design storm is computed. Although this approach yields valuable information on the vessel motions, it does not produce a statistically rigorous assessment of the lifetime probability of failure. An alternative approach is to perform a long-term reliability analysis in which consideration is taken of all sea states potentially encountered by the vessel during the design life. Although permitted as a design approach in current design codes, the associated computational expense generally prevents its use in practice. A new efficient approach to long-term reliability analysis is presented here, the results of which are compared with a traditional short-term analysis for the surge motion of a representative moored FPSO in head seas. This serves to illustrate the failure probabilities actually embedded within current design code methods, and the way in which design methods might be adapted to achieve a specified target safety level.

Discovery of a new 2.3 s isomer in neutron-rich 174Tm

A new program of K-isomer research has been initiated with the 8π spectrometer sited at the ISAC facility of TRIUMF. We discuss in this paper the identification of a new 2.3 s isomer in 174Tm and its implications. © Società Italiana di Fisica / Springer-Verlag 2005.

Risk based lifetime costs assessment of a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system design: Methodology and case study

Space heating accounts for a large portion of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) are a technology which can reduce carbon emissions from heating and cooling. GSHP system performance is however highly sensitive to deviation from design values of the actual annual energy extraction/rejection rates from/to the ground. In order to prevent failure and/or performance deterioration of GSHP systems it is possible to incorporate a safety factor in the design of the GSHP by over-sizing the ground heat exchanger (GHE). A methodology to evaluate the financial risk involved in over-sizing the GHE is proposed is this paper. A probability based approach is used to evaluate the economic feasibility of a hypothetical full-size GSHP system as compared to four alternative Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system configurations. The model of the GSHP system is developed in the TRNSYS energy simulation platform and calibrated with data from an actual hybrid GSHP system installed in the Department of Earth Science, University of Oxford, UK. Results of the analysis show that potential savings from a full-size GSHP system largely depend on projected HVAC system efficiencies and gas and electricity prices. Results of the risk analysis also suggest that a full-size GSHP with auxiliary back up is potentially the most economical system configuration. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.