Exploring the financial consequences of the servitization of manufacturing

Commentators suggest that to survive in developed economies manufacturing firms have to move up the value chain, innovating and creating ever more sophisticated products and services, so they do not have to compete on the basis of cost. While this strategy is proving increasingly popular with policy makers and academics there is limited empirical evidence to explore the extent to which it is being adopted in practice. And if so, what the impact of this servitization of manufacturing might be. This paper seeks to fill a gap in the literature by presenting empirical evidence on the range and extent of servitization. Data are drawn from the OSIRIS database on 10,028 firms incorporated in 25 different countries. The paper presents an analysis of these data which suggests that: [i] manufacturing firms in developed economies are adopting a range of servitization strategies-12 separate approaches to servitization are identified; [ii] these 12 categories can be used to extend the traditional three options for servitization-product oriented Product-Service Systems, use oriented Product-Service Systems and result oriented Product-Service Systems, by adding two new categories "integration oriented Product-Service Systems" and "service oriented Product-Service Systems"; [iii] while the manufacturing firms that have servitized are larger than traditional manufacturing firms in terms of sales revenues, at the aggregate level they also generate lower profits as a % of sales; [iv] these findings are moderated by firm size (measured in terms of numbers of employees). In smaller firms servitization appears to pay off while in larger firms it proves more problematic; and [v] there are some hidden risks associated with servitization-the sample contains a greater proportion of bankrupt servitized firms than would be expected. © Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2009.

Forecasting high-frequency futures returns using online langevin dynamics

Forecasting the returns of assets at high frequency is the key challenge for high-frequency algorithmic trading strategies. In this paper, we propose a jump-diffusion model for asset price movements that models price and its trend and allows a momentum strategy to be developed. Conditional on jump times, we derive closed-form transition densities for this model. We show how this allows us to extract a trend from high-frequency finance data by using a Rao-Blackwellized variable rate particle filter to filter incoming price data. Our results show that even in the presence of transaction costs our algorithm can achieve a Sharpe ratio above 1 when applied across a portfolio of 75 futures contracts at high frequency. © 2011 IEEE.

Dynamic Covariance Models for Multivariate Financial Time Series

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

Designing Inclusive Futures

This book is the result of the fourth CWUAAT workshop held in Cambridge, England in April 2008.

Thorium energy futures

The potential for thorium as an alternative or supplement to uranium in fission power generation has long been recognised, and several reactors, of various types, have already operated using thorium-based fuels. Accelerator Driven Subcritical (ADS) systems have benefits and drawbacks when compared to conventional critical thorium reactors, for both solid and molten salt fuels. None of the four options - liquid or solid, with or without an accelerator - can yet be rated as better or worse than the other three, given today's knowledge. We outline the research that will be necessary to lead to an informed choice. Copyright © 2012 by IEEE.