Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Design, development, and evaluation of a simple blackbody radiative source

This paper presents a simple design and the testing of a blackbody prototype. The physical properties and geometry of the cavity produce a radiator or blackbody with an emissivity greater than 0.99. The prototype has the advantages of having a traditional spherical cavity made of alumina refractory cement and a radiative emission very close to that of an ideal blackbody. The prototype can be used as a calibration standard for other radiation measuring instruments or sensors. Experimental measurements of radiant flux of the prototype measured with a calibrated infrared radiometer and a wide spectrum radiometer are also presented. The prototype is easy to construct and the material required are available to most research centers, laboratories, industries, and universities. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

Evaluation of the p-y method in the design of monopiles for offshore wind turbines

Monopile foundations, currently designed using the p-y method, are technically viable in supporting larger offshore wind turbines in waters to a depth of 30 m. The p-y method was developed to better understand the behavior of laterally loaded long slender piles required for the offshore oil and gas installations. The lateral load-deformation behavior of two monopiles, 5 and 7.5 m dia, installed in soft clays of varying undrained shear strength and stiffness, was studied. A combination of axial and lateral loads expected at an offshore wind farm location with a water depth of 30 m was used in the analysis. It was established that the Matlock (1970) p-y curves are too soft and under-estimate the ultimate soil reaction at all depths except at the monopile tip. At the pile tip, the base shear was not accounted for in the p-y curves, hence resulting in the over-estimation of the soil reaction. Consequently, the Matlock (1970) p-y formulation significantly underestimates the monopile ultimate lateral capacity. The use of the Matlock (1970) p-y method would result in over-conservative designs of monopiles for offshore wind turbines. This is an abstract of a paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference (Houston, TX 5/6-9/2013).

Evaluation of manufacturing techniques for a minifluidics demonstrator system

A multi-disciplinary team based at Heriot-Watt University and other Universities has been set up to tackle the design and manufacturing of lab-on-a-chip for industries as one of the demonstrators of the EPSRC Grand Challenge project "3D-Mintegration". The team focuses on the analysis of foetal genetic material extracted from maternal blood as a smart alternative to invasive prenatal testing such as amniocentesis. The first module of the microsystem envisaged achieves a separation of blood cells from plasma. This system permits the testing of different manufacturing techniques.