Feedback control and the arrow of time

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the central role that the time asymmetry of stability plays in feedback control. We show that this provides a new perspective on the use of doubly-infinite or semi-infinite time axes for signal spaces in control theory. We then focus on the implication of this time asymmetry in modeling uncertainty, regulation and robust control. We point out that modeling uncertainty and the ease of control depend critically on the direction of time. We finally discuss the relationship of this control-based time arrow with the well-known arrows of time in physics. © 2008 IEEE.

The Bayesian view of extreme events

The Bayesian perspective of designing for the consequences of hazard is discussed. Structural engineers should be educated in Bayesian theory and its underlying philosophy, and about the centrality to the prediction problem of the predictive distribution. The primary contribution that Bayesianism can make to the debate about extreme possibilities is its clarification of the language of and thinking about risk. Frequentist methodologies are the wrong approach to the decisions that engineers need to make, decisions that involve assessments of abstract future possibilities based on incomplete and abstract information.

Analysis of asphalt concrete permeability data using representative pore size

The permeability of asphalt concrete has been the subject of much study by pavement engineers over the last decade. The work undertaken has tended to focus on high air voids as the primary indicator of permeable asphalt concrete. This paper presents a simple approach for understanding the parameters that affect permeability. Principles explained by Taylor in 1956 in channel theory work for soils are used to derive a new parameter-representative pore size. Representative pore size is related to the air voids in the compacted mix and the D75 of the asphalt mix grading curve. Collected Superpave permeability data from published literature and data collected by the writers at the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads is shown to be better correlated with representative pore size than air voids, reducing the scatter considerably. Using the database of collected field and laboratory permeability values an equation is proposed that pavement engineers can use to estimate the permeability of in-place pavements. © 2011 ASCE.

Random function priors for exchangeable arrays with applications to graphs and relational data

A fundamental problem in the analysis of structured relational data like graphs, networks, databases, and matrices is to extract a summary of the common structure underlying relations between individual entities. Relational data are typically encoded in the form of arrays; invariance to the ordering of rows and columns corresponds to exchangeable arrays. Results in probability theory due to Aldous, Hoover and Kallenberg show that exchangeable arrays can be represented in terms of a random measurable function which constitutes the natural model parameter in a Bayesian model. We obtain a flexible yet simple Bayesian nonparametric model by placing a Gaussian process prior on the parameter function. Efficient inference utilises elliptical slice sampling combined with a random sparse approximation to the Gaussian process. We demonstrate applications of the model to network data and clarify its relation to models in the literature, several of which emerge as special cases.