Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Designing better buildings

Chapter 1 Design as a value generator Sebastian Macmillan ... has never been a better time to address the issue of design quality and the value of design. ...

Asymmetric quantizers are better at low SNR

We study the behavior of channel capacity when a one-bit quantizer is employed at the output of the discrete-time average-power-limited Gaussian channel. We focus on the low signal-to-noise ratio regime, where communication at very low spectral efficiencies takes place, as in Spread-Spectrum and Ultra-Wideband communications. It is well known that, in this regime, a symmetric one-bit quantizer reduces capacity by 2/π, which translates to a power loss of approximately two decibels. Here we show that if an asymmetric one-bit quantizer is employed, and if asymmetric signal constellations are used, then these two decibels can be recovered in full. © 2011 IEEE.

Industrial ecology at factory level - A conceptual model

Growing environmental concerns caused by natural resource depletion and pollution need to be addressed. One approach to these problems is Sustainable Development, a key concept for our society to meet present as well as future needs worldwide. Manufacturing clearly has a major role to play in the move towards a more sustainable society. However it appears that basic principles of environmental sustainability are not systematically applied, with practice tending to focus on local improvements. The aim of the work presented in this paper is to adopt a more holistic view of the factory unit to enable opportunities for wider improvement. This research analyses environmental principles and industrial practice to develop a conceptual manufacturing ecosystem model as a foundation to improve environmental performance. The model developed focuses on material, energy and waste flows to better understand the interactions between manufacturing operations, supporting facilities and surrounding buildings. The research was conducted in three steps: (1) existing concepts and models for industrial sustainability were reviewed and environmental practices in manufacturing were collected and analysed; (2) gaps in knowledge and practice were identified; (3) the outcome is a manufacturing ecosystem model based on industrial ecology (IE). This conceptual model has novelty in detailing IE application at factory level and integrating all resource flows. The work is a base on which to build quantitative modelling tools to seek integrated solutions for lower resource input, higher resource productivity, fewer wastes and emissions, and lower operating cost within the boundary of a factory unit. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two is better than one: Distinct roles for familiarity and recollection in retrieving palimpsest memories

Storing a new pattern in a palimpsest memory system comes at the cost of interfering with the memory traces of previously stored items. Knowing the age of a pattern thus becomes critical for recalling it faithfully. This implies that there should be a tight coupling between estimates of age, as a form of familiarity, and the neural dynamics of recollection, something which current theories omit. Using a normative model of autoassociative memory, we show that a dual memory system, consisting of two interacting modules for familiarity and recollection, has best performance for both recollection and recognition. This finding provides a new window onto actively contentious psychological and neural aspects of recognition memory.

A framework for collecting inclusive design data for the UK population.

Successful inclusive product design requires knowledge about the capabilities, needs and aspirations of potential users and should cater for the different scenarios in which people will use products, systems and services. This should include: the individual at home; in the workplace; for businesses, and for products in these contexts. It needs to reflect the development of theory, tools and techniques as research moves on. And it must also to draw in wider psychological, social, and economic considerations in order to gain a more accurate understanding of users' interactions with products and technology. However, recent research suggests that although a number of national disability surveys have been carried out, no such knowledge currently exists as information to support the design of products, systems and services for heterogeneous users. This paper outlines the strategy behind specific inclusive design research that is aimed at creating the foundations for measuring inclusion in product designs. A key outcome of this future research will be specifying and operationalising capability, and psychological, social and economic context measures for inclusive design. This paper proposes a framework for capturing such information, describes an early pilot study, and makes recommendations for better practice.

Vibration from railways: Can we achieve better than +/-10dB prediction accuracy?

This paper examines the sources of uncertainly in models used to predict vibration from underground railways. It will become clear from this presentation that by varying parameters by a small amount, consistent with uncertainties in measured data, the predicted vibration levels vary significantly, often by more than 10dB. This error cannot be forecast. Small changes made to soil parameters (Compressive and Shear Wave velocities and density), to slab bending stiffness and mass and to the measurement position give rise to changes in vibration levels of more than lOdB. So if 10dB prediction error results from small uncertainties in soil parameters and measurement position it cannot be sensible to rely on prediction models for accuracy better than 10dB. The presentation will demonstrate in real time the use of the new - and freely-available - PiP software for calculating vibration from railway tunnels in real time.