Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design

Design work involves uncertainty that arises from, and influences, the progressive development of solutions. This paper analyses the influences of evolving uncertainty levels on the design process. We focus on uncertainties associated with choosing the values of design parameters, and do not consider in detail the issues that arise when parameters must first be identified. Aspects of uncertainty and its evolution are discussed, and a new task-based model is introduced to describe process behaviour in terms of changing uncertainty levels. The model is applied to study two process configuration problems based on aircraft wing design: one using an analytical solution and one using Monte-Carlo simulation. The applications show that modelling uncertainty levels during design can help assess management policies, such as how many concepts should be considered during design and to what level of accuracy. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

The evolution of information while building cross-domain models of a design: A video experiment

Models capturing the connectivity between different domains of a design, e.g. between components and functions, can provide a tool for tracing and analysing aspects of that design. In this paper, video experiments are used to explore the role of cross-domain modelling in building up information about a design. The experiments highlight that cross-domain modelling can be a useful tool to create and structure design information. Findings suggest that consideration of multiple domains encourages discussion during modelling, helps identify design aspects that might otherwise be overlooked, and can help promote consideration of alternative design options. Copyright © 2002-2012 The Design Society. All rights reserved.

Gone in 0.6 seconds: the encoding of motor memories depends on recent sensorimotor states.

Real-world tasks often require movements that depend on a previous action or on changes in the state of the world. Here we investigate whether motor memories encode the current action in a manner that depends on previous sensorimotor states. Human subjects performed trials in which they made movements in a randomly selected clockwise or counterclockwise velocity-dependent curl force field. Movements during this adaptation phase were preceded by a contextual phase that determined which of the two fields would be experienced on any given trial. As expected from previous research, when static visual cues were presented in the contextual phase, strong interference (resulting in an inability to learn either field) was observed. In contrast, when the contextual phase involved subjects making a movement that was continuous with the adaptation-phase movement, a substantial reduction in interference was seen. As the time between the contextual and adaptation movement increased, so did the interference, reaching a level similar to that seen for static visual cues for delays >600 ms. This contextual effect generalized to purely visual motion, active movement without vision, passive movement, and isometric force generation. Our results show that sensorimotor states that differ in their recent temporal history can engage distinct representations in motor memory, but this effect decays progressively over time and is abolished by ∼600 ms. This suggests that motor memories are encoded not simply as a mapping from current state to motor command but are encoded in terms of the recent history of sensorimotor states.

The evolution of a stratified turbulent cloud

Localized regions of turbulence, or turbulent clouds, in a stratified fluid are the subject of this study, which focuses on the edge dynamics occurring between the turbulence and the surrounding quiescent region. Through laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of stratified turbulent clouds, we confirm that the edge dynamics can be subdivided into materially driven intrusions and horizontally travelling internal wave-packets. Three-dimensional visualizations show that the internal gravity wave-packets are in fact large-scale pancake structures that grow out of the turbulent cloud into the adjacent quiescent region. The wave-packets were tracked in time, and it is found that their speed obeys the group speed relation for linear internal gravity waves. The energetics of the propagating waves, which include waveforms that are inclined with respect to the horizontal, are also considered and it is found that, after a period of two eddy turnover times, the internal gravity waves carry up to 16 % of the cloud kinetic energy into the initially quiescent region. Turbulent events in nature are often in the form of decaying turbulent clouds, and it is therefore suggested that internal gravity waves radiated from an initial cloud could play a significant role in the reorganization of energy and momentum in the atmosphere and oceans.©2013 Cambridge University Press.