An integrated representation of the services provided by global water resources

Water is essential not only to maintain the livelihoods of human beings but also to sustain ecosystems. Over the last few decades several global assessments have reviewed current and future uses of water, and have offered potential solutions to a possible water crisis. However, these have tended to focus on water supply rather than on the range of demands for all water services (including those of ecosystems). In this paper, a holistic global view of water resources and the services they provide is presented, using Sankey diagrams as a visualisation tool. These diagrams provide a valuable addition to the spatial maps of other global assessments, as they track the sources, uses, services and sinks of water resources. They facilitate comparison of different water services, and highlight trade-offs amongst them. For example, they reveal how increasing the supply of water resources to one service (crop production) can generate a reduction in provision of other water services (e.g., to ecosystem maintenance). The potential impacts of efficiency improvements in the use of water are also highlighted; for example, reduction in soil evaporation from crop production through better farming practices, or the results of improved treatment and re-use of return flows leading to reduction of delivery to final sinks. This paper also outlines the measures needed to ensure sustainable water resource use and supply for multiple competing services in the future, and emphasises that integrated management of land and water resources is essential to achieve this goal. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Changes of mind in decision-making.

A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on evidence and the expected costs and benefits associated with the outcome. Progress in a variety of fields has led to a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms that evaluate evidence and reach a decision. Several formalisms propose that a representation of noisy evidence is evaluated against a criterion to produce a decision. Without additional evidence, however, these formalisms fail to explain why a decision-maker would change their mind. Here we extend a model, developed to account for both the timing and the accuracy of the initial decision, to explain subsequent changes of mind. Subjects made decisions about a noisy visual stimulus, which they indicated by moving a handle. Although they received no additional information after initiating their movement, their hand trajectories betrayed a change of mind in some trials. We propose that noisy evidence is accumulated over time until it reaches a criterion level, or bound, which determines the initial decision, and that the brain exploits information that is in the processing pipeline when the initial decision is made to subsequently either reverse or reaffirm the initial decision. The model explains both the frequency of changes of mind as well as their dependence on both task difficulty and whether the initial decision was accurate or erroneous. The theoretical and experimental findings advance the understanding of decision-making to the highly flexible and cognitive acts of vacillation and self-correction.

The retrieval of structured design rationale for the re-use of design knowledge with an integrated representation

Design knowledge can be acquired from various sources and generally requires an integrated representation for its effective and efficient re-use. Though knowledge about products and processes can illustrate the solutions created (know-what) and the courses of actions (know-how) involved in their creation, the reasoning process (know-why) underlying the solutions and actions is still needed for an integrated representation of design knowledge. Design rationale is an effective way of capturing that missing part, since it records the issues addressed, the options considered, and the arguments used when specific design solutions are created and evaluated. Apart from the need for an integrated representation, effective retrieval methods are also of great importance for the re-use of design knowledge, as the knowledge involved in designing complex products can be huge. Developing methods for the retrieval of design rationale is very useful as part of the effective management of design knowledge, for the following reasons. Firstly, design engineers tend to want to consider issues and solutions before looking at solid models or process specifications in detail. Secondly, design rationale is mainly described using text, which often embodies much relevant design knowledge. Last but not least, design rationale is generally captured by identifying elements and their dependencies, i.e. in a structured way which opens the opportunity for going beyond simple keyword-based searching. In this paper, the management of design rationale for the re-use of design knowledge is presented. The retrieval of design rationale records in particular is discussed in detail. As evidenced in the development and evaluation, the methods proposed are useful for the re-use of design knowledge and can be generalised to be used for the retrieval of other kinds of structured design knowledge. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Internal representations of temporal statistics and feedback calibrate motor-sensory interval timing.

Humans have been shown to adapt to the temporal statistics of timing tasks so as to optimize the accuracy of their responses, in agreement with the predictions of Bayesian integration. This suggests that they build an internal representation of both the experimentally imposed distribution of time intervals (the prior) and of the error (the loss function). The responses of a Bayesian ideal observer depend crucially on these internal representations, which have only been previously studied for simple distributions. To study the nature of these representations we asked subjects to reproduce time intervals drawn from underlying temporal distributions of varying complexity, from uniform to highly skewed or bimodal while also varying the error mapping that determined the performance feedback. Interval reproduction times were affected by both the distribution and feedback, in good agreement with a performance-optimizing Bayesian observer and actor model. Bayesian model comparison highlighted that subjects were integrating the provided feedback and represented the experimental distribution with a smoothed approximation. A nonparametric reconstruction of the subjective priors from the data shows that they are generally in agreement with the true distributions up to third-order moments, but with systematically heavier tails. In particular, higher-order statistical features (kurtosis, multimodality) seem much harder to acquire. Our findings suggest that humans have only minor constraints on learning lower-order statistical properties of unimodal (including peaked and skewed) distributions of time intervals under the guidance of corrective feedback, and that their behavior is well explained by Bayesian decision theory.

A high-resolution atlas and statistical model of the human heart from multislice CT

Atlases and statistical models play important roles in the personalization and simulation of cardiac physiology. For the study of the heart, however, the construction of comprehensive atlases and spatio-temporal models is faced with a number of challenges, in particular the need to handle large and highly variable image datasets, the multi-region nature of the heart, and the presence of complex as well as small cardiovascular structures. In this paper, we present a detailed atlas and spatio-temporal statistical model of the human heart based on a large population of 3D+time multi-slice computed tomography sequences, and the framework for its construction. It uses spatial normalization based on nonrigid image registration to synthesize a population mean image and establish the spatial relationships between the mean and the subjects in the population. Temporal image registration is then applied to resolve each subject-specific cardiac motion and the resulting transformations are used to warp a surface mesh representation of the atlas to fit the images of the remaining cardiac phases in each subject. Subsequently, we demonstrate the construction of a spatio-temporal statistical model of shape such that the inter-subject and dynamic sources of variation are suitably separated. The framework is applied to a 3D+time data set of 138 subjects. The data is drawn from a variety of pathologies, which benefits its generalization to new subjects and physiological studies. The obtained level of detail and the extendability of the atlas present an advantage over most cardiac models published previously. © 1982-2012 IEEE.