Bayesian updating of a unified soil compression model

Some amount of differential settlement occurs even in the most uniform soil deposit, but it is extremely difficult to estimate because of the natural heterogeneity of the soil. The compression response of the soil and its variability must be characterised in order to estimate the probability of the differential settlement exceeding a certain threshold value. The work presented in this paper introduces a probabilistic framework to address this issue in a rigorous manner, while preserving the format of a typical geotechnical settlement analysis. In order to avoid dealing with different approaches for each category of soil, a simplified unified compression model is used to characterise the nonlinear compression behavior of soils of varying gradation through a single constitutive law. The Bayesian updating rule is used to incorporate information from three different laboratory datasets in the computation of the statistics (estimates of the means and covariance matrix) of the compression model parameters, as well as of the uncertainty inherent in the model.