Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

A novel method for rapid comparative quantitative analysis of nuclear fuel cycles

One of the greatest obstacles facing the nuclear industry is that of sustainability, both in terms of the finite reserves of uranium ore and the production of highly radiotoxic spent fuel which presents proliferation and environmental hazards. Alternative nuclear technologies have been suggested as a means of delivering enhanced sustainability with proposals including fast reactors, the use of thorium fuel and tiered fuel cycles. The debate as to which is the most appropriate technology continues, with each fuel system and reactor type delivering specific advantages and disadvantages which can be difficult to compare fairly. This paper demonstrates a framework of performance metrics which, coupled with a first-order lumped reactor model to determine nuclide population balances, can be used to quantify the aforementioned pros and cons for a range of different fuel and reactor combinations. The framework includes metrics such as fuel efficiency, spent fuel toxicity and proliferation resistance, and relative cycle performance is analysed through parallel coordinate plots, yielding a quantitative comparison of disparate cycles. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The performance of closed reactor grade plutonium-thorium fuel cycles in reduced-moderation pressurised water reactors

The production of long-lived transuranic (TRU) waste is a major disadvantage of fission-based nuclear power. Previous work has indicated that TRU waste can be virtually eliminated in a pressurised water reactor (PWR) fuelled with a mixture of thorium and TRU waste, when all actinides are returned to the reactor after reprocessing. However, the optimal configuration for a fuel assembly operating this fuel cycle is likely to differ from the current configuration. In this paper, the differences in performance obtained in a reduced-moderation PWR operating this fuel cycle were investigated using WIMS. The chosen configuration allowed an increase of at least 20% in attainable burn-up for a given TRU enrichment. This will be especially important if the practical limit on TRU enrichment is low. The moderator reactivity coefficients limit the enrichment possible in the reactor, and this limit is particularly severe if a negative void coefficient is required for a fully voided core. Several strategies have been identified to mitigate this. Specifically, the control system should be designed to avoid a detrimental effect on moderator reactivity coefficients. The economic viability of this concept is likely to be dependent on the achievable thermal-hydraulic operating conditions. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.