Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: From problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods

Background: There is an increasing recognition that modelling and simulation can assist in the process of designing health care policies, strategies and operations. However, the current use is limited and answers to questions such as what methods to use and when remain somewhat underdeveloped. Aim. The aim of this study is to provide a mechanism for decision makers in health services planning and management to compare a broad range of modelling and simulation methods so that they can better select and use them or better commission relevant modelling and simulation work. Methods. This paper proposes a modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool developed from a comprehensive literature review, the research team's extensive expertise and inputs from potential users. Twenty-eight different methods were identified, characterised by their relevance to different application areas, project life cycle stages, types of output and levels of insight, and four input resources required (time, money, knowledge and data). Results: The characterisation is presented in matrix forms to allow quick comparison and selection. This paper also highlights significant knowledge gaps in the existing literature when assessing the applicability of particular approaches to health services management, where modelling and simulation skills are scarce let alone money and time. Conclusions: A modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool is developed to assist with the selection of methods appropriate to supporting specific decision making processes. In particular it addresses the issue of which method is most appropriate to which specific health services management problem, what the user might expect to be obtained from the method, and what is required to use the method. In summary, we believe the tool adds value to the scarce existing literature on methods comparison and selection. © 2011 Jun et al.

Estimation of soil properties and deformations in staged constructions based on mcmc method

This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic framework to assess soil properties and model uncertainty to better predict excavation-induced deformations using field deformation data. The potential correlations between deformations at different depths are accounted for in the likelihood function needed in the Bayesian approach. The proposed approach also accounts for inclinometer measurement errors. The posterior statistics of the unknown soil properties and the model parameters are computed using the Delayed Rejection (DR) method and the Adaptive Metropolis (AM) method. As an application, the proposed framework is used to assess the unknown soil properties of multiple soil layers using deformation data at different locations and for incremental excavation stages. The developed approach can be used for the design of optimal revisions for supported excavation systems. © 2010 ASCE.

A new method for the acquisition of ultrasonic strain image volumes.

This article presents a new method for acquiring three-dimensional (3-D) volumes of ultrasonic axial strain data. The method uses a mechanically-swept probe to sweep out a single volume while applying a continuously varying axial compression. Acquisition of a volume takes 15-20 s. A strain volume is then calculated by comparing frame pairs throughout the sequence. The method uses strain quality estimates to automatically pick out high quality frame pairs, and so does not require careful control of the axial compression. In a series of in vitro and in vivo experiments, we quantify the image quality of the new method and also assess its ease of use. Results are compared with those for the current best alternative, which calculates strain between two complete volumes. The volume pair approach can produce high quality data, but skillful scanning is required to acquire two volumes with appropriate relative strain. In the new method, the automatic quality-weighted selection of image pairs overcomes this difficulty and the method produces superior quality images with a relatively relaxed scanning technique.

The post-processed Galerkin method applied to non-linear shell vibrations

We present the results of a computational study of the post-processed Galerkin methods put forward by Garcia-Archilla et al. applied to the non-linear von Karman equations governing the dynamic response of a thin cylindrical panel periodically forced by a transverse point load. We spatially discretize the shell using finite differences to produce a large system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). By analogy with spectral non-linear Galerkin methods we split this large system into a 'slowly' contracting subsystem and a 'quickly' contracting subsystem. We then compare the accuracy and efficiency of (i) ignoring the dynamics of the 'quick' system (analogous to a traditional spectral Galerkin truncation and sometimes referred to as 'subspace dynamics' in the finite element community when applied to numerical eigenvectors), (ii) slaving the dynamics of the quick system to the slow system during numerical integration (analogous to a non-linear Galerkin method), and (iii) ignoring the influence of the dynamics of the quick system on the evolution of the slow system until we require some output, when we 'lift' the variables from the slow system to the quick using the same slaving rule as in (ii). This corresponds to the post-processing of Garcia-Archilla et al. We find that method (iii) produces essentially the same accuracy as method (ii) but requires only the computational power of method (i) and is thus more efficient than either. In contrast with spectral methods, this type of finite-difference technique can be applied to irregularly shaped domains. We feel that post-processing of this form is a valuable method that can be implemented in computational schemes for a wide variety of partial differential equations (PDEs) of practical importance.

Dynamic characterisation and longitudinal strength of swaged joints

Swaging is a cold working process involving plastic deformation of the work piece to change its shape. A swaged joint is a connection between two components whereby a swaging tool induces plastic deformation of the components at their junction to effectively bind them together. This is commonly used when welding or other standard joining techniques are not viable. Swaged joints can be found for example, in nuclear fuel assemblies to connect the edges of thin rectangular plates to a supporting structure or frame. The aim of this work is to find a model to describe the vibrational behaviour of a swaged joint and to estimate its strength in resisting a longitudinally applied load. The finite element method and various experimental rigs were used in order to find relationships between the natural frequencies of the plate, the joint stiffness and the force required to shift the plate against the restraining action of the swage connection. It is found that a swaged joint is dynamically equivalent to a simple support with the rotation elastically restrained and a small stiffness is enough to resist an important load. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Graduate Education for Leadership in Sustainable Development Innovation , Practice and Research

This paper reflects on the motivation, method and effectiveness of teaching leadership and organisational change to graduate engineers. Delivering progress towards sustainable development requires engineers who are aware of pressing global issues (such as resource depletion, climate change, social inequity and an interdependent economy) since it is they who deliver the goods and services that underpin society within these constraints. In recognition of this fact the Cambridge University MPhil in Engineering for Sustainable Development has focussed on educating engineers to become effective change agents in their professional field with the confidence to challenge orthodoxy in adopting traditional engineering solutions. This paper reflects on ten years of delivering this course to review how teaching change management and leadership aspects of the programme have evolved and progressed over that time. As the students on this professional practice have often extensive experience as practising engineers and scientists, they have learned the limitations of their technical background when solving complex problems. Students often join the course recognising their need to broaden their knowledge of relevant cross-disciplinary skills. The course offers an opportunity for these early to mid-career engineers to explore an ethical and value-based approach to bringing about effective change in their particular sectors and organisations. This is achieved through action learning assignments in combination with reflections on the theory of change to enable students to equip themselves with tools that help them to be effective in making their professional and personal life choices. This paper draws on feedback gathered from students during their participation on the course and augments this with alumni reflections gathered some years after their graduation. These professionals are able to look back on their experience of the taught components and reflect on how they have been able to apply this key learning in their subsequent careers.

Achieving robust face recognition from video by combining a weak photometric model and a learnt generic face invariant

In spite of over two decades of intense research, illumination and pose invariance remain prohibitively challenging aspects of face recognition for most practical applications. The objective of this work is to recognize faces using video sequences both for training and recognition input, in a realistic, unconstrained setup in which lighting, pose and user motion pattern have a wide variability and face images are of low resolution. The central contribution is an illumination invariant, which we show to be suitable for recognition from video of loosely constrained head motion. In particular there are three contributions: (i) we show how a photometric model of image formation can be combined with a statistical model of generic face appearance variation to exploit the proposed invariant and generalize in the presence of extreme illumination changes; (ii) we introduce a video sequence re-illumination algorithm to achieve fine alignment of two video sequences; and (iii) we use the smoothness of geodesically local appearance manifold structure and a robust same-identity likelihood to achieve robustness to unseen head poses. We describe a fully automatic recognition system based on the proposed method and an extensive evaluation on 323 individuals and 1474 video sequences with extreme illumination, pose and head motion variation. Our system consistently achieved a nearly perfect recognition rate (over 99.7% on all four databases). © 2012 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Characteristics of blood flow in microchannels and relevant impact on modelling blood behaviour in biochip separators

This paper reports a perspective investigation of computational modelling of blood fluid in microchannel devices as a preparation for future research on fluid-structure interaction (FSI) in biofluid mechanics. The investigation is carried out through two aspects, respectively on physical behaviours of blood flow in microchannels and appropriate methodology for modelling. The physics of blood flow is targeted to the challenges for describing blood flow in microchannels, including rheology of blood fluid, suspension features of red blood cells (RBCs), laminar hydrodynamic influence and effect of surface roughness. The analysis shows that due to the hyperelastic property of RBC and its comparable dimension with microchannels, blood fluid shows complex behaviours of two phase flow. The trajectory and migration of RBCs require accurate description of RBC deformation and interaction with plasma. Following on a discussion of modelling approaches, i.e. Eulerian method and Lagrangian method, the main stream modelling methods for multiphase flow are reviewed and their suitability to blood flow is analysed. It is concluded that the key issue for blood flow modelling is how to describe the suspended blood cells, modelled by Lagrangian method, and couple them with the based flow, modelled by Eulerian method. The multiphase flow methods are thereby classified based on the number of points required for describing a particle, as follows: (i) single-point particle methods, (ii) mutli-point particle methods, (iii) functional particle methods, and (iv) fluid particle methods. While single-point particle methods concentrate on particle dynamic movement, multipoint and functional particle methods can take into account particle mechanics and thus offer more detailed information for individual particles. Fluid particle methods provide good compromise between two phases, but require additional information for particle mechanics. For furthermore detailed description, we suggest to investigate the possibility using two domain coupling method, in which particles and base flow are modelled by two separated solvers. It is expected that this paper could clarify relevant issues in numerical modelling of blood flow in microchannels and induce some considerations for modelling blood flow using multiphase flow methods. © 2012 IEEE.

Unified modelling in support of organization design and change

The aim of this research is to provide a unified modelling-based method to help with the evaluation of organization design and change decisions. Relevant literature regarding model-driven organization design and change is described. This helps identify the requirements for a new modelling methodology. Such a methodology is developed and described. The three phases of the developed method include the following. First, the use of CIMOSA-based multi-perspective enterprise modelling to understand and capture the most enduring characteristics of process-oriented organizations and externalize various types of requirement knowledge about any target organization. Second, the use of causal loop diagrams to identify dynamic causal impacts and effects related to the issues and constraints on the organization under study. Third, the use of simulation modelling to quantify the effects of each issue in terms of organizational performance. The design and case study application of a unified modelling method based on CIMOSA (computer integrated manufacturing open systems architecture) enterprise modelling, causal loop diagrams, and simulation modelling, is explored to illustrate its potential to support systematic organization design and change. Further application of the proposed methodology in various company and industry sectors, especially in manufacturing sectors, would be helpful to illustrate complementary uses and relative benefits and drawbacks of the methodology in different types of organization. The proposed unified modelling-based method provides a systematic way of enabling key aspects of organization design and change. The case company, its relevant data, and developed models help to explore and validate the proposed method. The application of CIMOSA-based unified modelling method and integrated application of these three modelling techniques within a single solution space constitutes an advance on previous best practice. Also, the purpose and application domain of the proposed method offers an addition to knowledge. © IMechE 2009.

Graduate education for leadership and organisational change in sustainable development

This paper reflects on the motivation, method and effectiveness of teaching leadership and organisational change to graduate engineers. Delivering progress towards sustainable development requires engineers who are aware of pressing global issues (such as resource depletion, climate change, social inequity and an interdependent economy) since it is they who deliver the goods and services that underpin society within these constraints. They also must understand how to implement change in the organisations within which they will work. In recognition of this fact the Cambridge University MPhil in Engineering for Sustainable Development has focussed on educating engineers to become effective change agents in their professional field with the confidence to challenge orthodoxy in adopting traditional engineering solutions. This paper reflects on ten years of delivering a special module to review how teaching change management and leadership aspects of the programme have evolved and progressed over that time. As the students who embark on this professional practice have often extensive experience as practising engineers and scientists, many have already learned the limitations of their technical background when solving complex problems. Students often join the course recognising their need to broaden their knowledge of relevant cross-disciplinary skills. The programme offers an opportunity for these early to mid-career engineers to explore an ethical and value-based approach to bringing about effective change in their particular sectors and organisations. This is achieved through action learning assignments in combination with reflections on the theory of change to enable students to equip themselves with tools that help them to be effective in making their professional and personal life choices. This paper draws on feedback gathered from students during their participation on the programme and augments this with alumni reflections gathered some years after their graduation. These professionals are able to look back on their experience of the taught components and reflect on how they have been able to apply this key learning in their subsequent careers. Copyright © 2012 September.

Numerical study of soil heterogeneity effects on contaminant transport in unsaturated soil (model development and validation)

The movement of chemicals through soil to groundwater is a major cause of degradation of water resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. The study of the effects of different factors involved in transport phenomena can provide valuable information to find the best remediation approaches. Numerical models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing solute transport processes in soils and groundwater. This article presents the development of a stochastic finite element model for the simulation of contaminant transport through soils with the main focus being on the incorporation of the effects of soil heterogeneity in the model. The governing equations of contaminant transport are presented. The mathematical framework and the numerical implementation of the model are described. The comparison of the results obtained from the developed stochastic model with those obtained from a deterministic method and some experimental results shows that the stochastic model is capable of predicting the transport of solutes in unsaturated soil with higher accuracy than deterministic one. The importance of the consideration of the effects of soil heterogeneity on contaminant fate is highlighted through a sensitivity analysis regarding the variance of saturated hydraulic conductivity as an index of soil heterogeneity. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Large Eddy Simulation for Turbines: Methodologies, Cost and Future Outlooks

Flows throughout different zones of turbines have been investigated using large eddy simulation (LES) and hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes-LES (RANS-LES) methods and contrasted with RANS modeling, which is more typically used in the design environment. The studied cases include low and high-pressure turbine cascades, real surface roughness effects, internal cooling ducts, trailing edge cut-backs, and labyrinth and rim seals. Evidence is presented that shows that LES and hybrid RANS-LES produces higher quality data than RANS/URANS for a wide range of flows. The higher level of physics that is resolved allows for greater flow physics insight, which is valuable for improving designs and refining lower order models. Turbine zones are categorized by flow type to assist in choosing the appropriate eddy resolving method and to estimate the computational cost.

Spray drying: An alternative synthesis method for polycationic oxide compounds

Synthesis of polycationic compounds by the spray-drying technique is an interesting alternative in the domain of aqueous precursor synthesis methods. Spray drying yields high quality samples with good reproducibility. The possibility of scaling up for production of large quantities with fast processing time is well established by the commercial availability of powders of various compositions. In this paper, we have discussed the advantages and limitations of this method and demonstrated its interest by synthesizing a few polycationic compounds selected for their attractive properties of thermoelectricity [Bi1.68Ca2Co1.69O 8, La0.95A0.05CoO3 (A=Ca, Sr, Ba)] or magnetoresistance [La0.70A0.30MnO3 (A=Sr, Ba)]. We have confirmed the quality of these samples by reporting their structure, magnetic and transport properties. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Preliminary laboratory-scale model auger installation and testing of carbonated soil-MgO columns

This paper presents details of the installation and performance of carbonated soil-MgO columns using a laboratory-scale model auger setup. MgO grout was mixed with the soil using the auger and the columns were then carbonated with gaseous CO2 introduced in two different ways: one using auger mixing and the other through a perforated plastic tube system inserted into the treated column. The performance of the columns in terms of unconfined compressive strength (UCS), stiffness, strain at failure and microstructure (using X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy) showed that the soil-MgO columns were carbonated very quickly (in under 1 h) and yielded relatively high strength values, of 2.4-9.4 MPa, which on average were five times that of corresponding 28-day ambient cured uncarbonated columns. This confirmed, together with observations of dense microstructure and hydrated magnesium carbonates, that a good degree of carbonation had taken place. The results also showed that the carbonation method and period have a significant effect on the resulting performance, with the carbonation through the perforated pipe producing the best results. Copyright © 2013 by ASTM International.

Synchronization of user-generated videos through trajectory correspondence and a refinement procedure

Temporal synchronization of multiple video recordings of the same dynamic event is a critical task in many computer vision applications e.g. novel view synthesis and 3D reconstruction. Typically this information is implied through the time-stamp information embedded in the video streams. User-generated videos shot using consumer grade equipment do not contain this information; hence, there is a need to temporally synchronize signals using the visual information itself. Previous work in this area has either assumed good quality data with relatively simple dynamic content or the availability of precise camera geometry. Our first contribution is a synchronization technique which tries to establish correspondence between feature trajectories across views in a novel way, and specifically targets the kind of complex content found in consumer generated sports recordings, without assuming precise knowledge of fundamental matrices or homographies. We evaluate performance using a number of real video recordings and show that our method is able to synchronize to within 1 sec, which is significantly better than previous approaches. Our second contribution is a robust and unsupervised view-invariant activity recognition descriptor that exploits recurrence plot theory on spatial tiles. The descriptor is individually shown to better characterize the activities from different views under occlusions than state-of-the-art approaches. We combine this descriptor with our proposed synchronization method and show that it can further refine the synchronization index. © 2013 ACM.